New York officially has a heavyweight political bout on its hands in 2026.
A new survey of New York voters shows Kathy Hochul, the incumbent Democrat governor, with just a small single-digit lead over Republican congresswoman Elise Stefanik, and also that the race could get even tighter if New York City voters elect socialist Zohran Mamdani next month.
Hochul leads Stefanik 48% to 43%, according to the GrayHouse poll conducted late last month just after the governor endorsed Mamdani. Hochul finds herself in a “deeply vulnerable position,” the polling memo reviewed by The Daily Wire states, especially given underlying data points that indicate the race will only tighten.
It shows, for example, that a win by Mamdani in the mayor’s race makes 47% of independent voters less willing to vote for a Democrat for governor, with only 9% saying it would make them more likely to vote Democrat. When voters were asked whether they wanted Hochul reelected or whether it was time for someone else, 59% of New York voters said it was time for anyone but Hochul.
And in what the pollster calls an “informed ballot,” in which voters are polled after hearing political narratives about the candidates, including that Hochul had just endorsed Mamdani, her 5-point lead completely evaporates: in that sample, Stefanik actually takes a small half-point lead, 46.4% to 45.9%.
Stefanik says the poll results should be expected, given the state of New York under single-party Democrat rule.
“Kathy Hochul, the worst Governor in America, is a deeply embattled and historically unpopular failed Governor who is struggling to even gain support from her own party,” Stefanik said. “Kathy Hochul’s single party Democrat rule affordability crisis, coupled with the crime crisis from failed bail reform, combined with the sanctuary state policies, putting criminals and illegals first and New Yorkers last, is a political disaster for Hochul.”
Stefanik, an Albany native who has represented upstate New York in Congress for the past decade, has risen to political stardom in recent years as a member of House leadership and close political ally of President Donald Trump. The president actually nominated her to be his ambassador to the United Nations, but she stepped down during the confirmation process to save the Republican majority, winning her allies throughout the party. She’s yet to officially launch her gubernatorial bid, but it’s considered to be a question of when she does so, not if.
Hochul, who took office after her disgraced Democrat colleague Andrew Cuomo resigned over sexual harassment accusations, vastly underperformed expectations in her only election at the top of the ticket. In 2022, with polls predicting she’d win by double-digits over Republican Lee Zeldin, Hochul only won by a few percentage points. And with the state reeling during her first full term as governor, Stefanik’s team views her as vulnerable.
“This poll is devastating for the Worst Governor in America,” said Alex deGrasse, a longtime Stefanik operative. “Voters want change and a Governor who will fight for them, which is why they will resoundingly reject Kathy Hochul for new leadership in Elise Stefanik if she decides to run for Governor. What is truly remarkable about this poll is that this is before Elise has even formally announced her campaign. There is a reason why Kathy is running scared.”
Hochul finds herself in a precarious position, with Democrat voters in the state split between more traditional candidates and socialists like Mamdani and congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Asked whether they “align” more with “traditional Democrats like Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Hakeem Jeffries” or “Democratic Socialists like AOC, Bernie Sanders, and Zohran Mamdani,” Democrat voters were perfectly split, 40% to 40%.
Hochul’s one-time running mate Andrew Cuomo is running against Mamdani in the New York City mayoral race as an independent. Though Hochul endorsed Mamdani, she’s so politically unpopular that he was unwilling to even return the favor.
Polling in recent months has shown Stefanik down double-digits, including one poll showing Hochul with a lead of 25 points, according to RealClearPolitics. The GrayHouse poll was conducted from September 20 to September 26, and had a 2.6% margin of error.