A new poll shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is besting Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, in a hypothetical GOP Senate primary but would perform worse than the incumbent in what could shape up to be a tough general election for Republicans.
Paxton holds a nine-point lead over Cornyn in a recent survey of likely Republican primary voters in Texas.
The poll, conducted between May 9 and May 19 by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University (TSU), surveyed 1,200 Texas registered voters. Paxton polled at 43% while Cornyn garnered 34% among those surveyed who were likely Republican primary voters. A crucial 23% of likely Republican primary voters surveyed said they were still undecided.
The survey also found that 49% of likely Republican primary voters indicated that they would be more likely to vote for the candidate endorsed by President Donald Trump, while 13% said they would be less likely. Some 38% said it would have no effect on their vote. Both Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, have yet to endorse a candidate. Cruz endorsed Cornyn in 2020.
Paxton also has strong favorability ratings according to the poll. Sixty-eight percent of likely Republican primary voters have a favorable opinion of Paxton compared to 57% for Cornyn.
Texas Rep. Wesley Hunt is also reportedly considering jumping into the primary. The poll pitted Hunt against both Paxton and Cornyn in two separate hypothetical matchups. Paxton garnered 45% compared to Hunt’s 25%, while Cornyn outpaced Hunt 39% to Hunt’s 31%. When all three candidates were polled together in a three-way primary, Paxton led the race at 34% to Cornyn at 27% and Hunt at 15% among likely Republican primary voters. Nearly a quarter of those surveyed said they were unsure of how they would vote.
The TSU poll is actually a major improvement for Cornyn. A poll released earlier in the month showed the senior senator from Texas trailing Paxton by 16 points. That poll had been commissioned by the Republican leadership PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, which has committed to backing Cornyn.
Republicans are concerned that any victor of the Republican primary will face a formidable general election race in November 2026.
The TSU poll found that Cornyn performs better than Paxton in a general election against three possible Democrat candidates. Cornyn leads Rep. Joaquin Castro, D-Texas, by seven points 48% to 41%, whereas Paxton leads Castro by only three points 47% to 44%. Against the former U.S. Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke, Cornyn leads 48% to 43%, while Paxton leads 49% to 45%. Against former Texas congressman Colin Allred, Cornyn leads 48% to 44%, and Paxton leads 48% to 46%.
Historically, the party in power in Washington, which is currently the Republicans, performs poorly during the midterms. This, coupled with the fact that Democrats have poured substantially more money than Republicans in Texas in recent years to turn the state blue, could spell trouble for whoever is the Republican nominee.
In 2018, Cruz beat back a challenge from O’Rourke by just 2.6%. O’Rourke had raised more than $80 million compared to Cruz’s $48.8 million. That massive cash discrepancy had real effects: O’Rourke earned more Democrat votes than any other candidate in Texas history.
While the National Republican Senatorial Committee has thus far raised $2.7 million more than the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for 2026, the Democrat committee has $13 million in the bank, compared to just $6.3 million for the Republicans. On the House side, according to April financial disclosures, Democrats have already outraised Republicans by $1.1 million.