The assassination of Charlie Kirk and other recent shootings that appear motivated by transgender ideology raise questions about the potential radicalizing nature of heated rhetoric on the issue, particularly from influential groups like the Human Rights Campaign.
While the Human Rights Campaign does not call for violence against conservatives, it publishes reports claiming there is an “Epidemic of Violence” against transgender people and branding opposition to the transgender agenda a “Culture of Violence.”
The “Culture of Violence” report traces the violence back to “anti-trans stigma and discrimination,” suggesting that policies preventing males from competing in women’s sports or keeping boys out of girls’ restrooms are inspiring violent attacks. “Anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric and legislative attacks are translating to anti-LGBTQ+ violence,” the report insists.
Yet this violence has arguably been exaggerated.
You see, the Human Rights Campaign’s own data suggest that transgender people actually face a lower homicide risk than other groups, particularly men, women, black, white, and Hispanic people.
Since 2013, the Human Rights Campaign Foundation has counted the deaths of “transgender and gender-expansive victims of fatal violence.” In the period between Nov. 21, 2023, and Nov. 20, 2024, the foundation counted 36 deaths. This represented an increase from the 33 victims in the previous year. For the 10 years since the foundation began counting, it identified 372 victims.
Each death is tragic, but these figures do not back up the claim of an “epidemic” of violence.
The Human Rights Campaign claims that “more than 2 million” people identify as transgender or gender-nonconforming. The Williams Institute, a pro-transgender think tank at the University of California, Los Angeles, law school, puts the number at 2.8 million. HRC has endorsed Williams Institute figures in other contexts, so it may agree with the 2.8 million figure.
Using the exact figure of 2 million, which HRC suggests is an underestimate, there were 1.8 homicides per 100,000 people who identify as transgender in 2024. Using the Williams Institute’s figure, there were 1.29 homicides per 100,000.
The Human Rights Campaign counted a record of 46 deaths in 2021. Even using the lowest possible HRC-endorsed figure for the transgender population (2 million), that equates to a rate of 2.3 homicides per 100,000.
The rate of 1.29 homicides per 100,000 transgender people pales in comparison to the homicide rates of men, women, whites, blacks, and Hispanics.
For the period between November 2023 and November 2024, the FBI counted 3,812 female homicide victims, according to the Crime Data Explorer. According to the Census Bureau, there were 166.5 million women in the U.S. in 2021. That yields a rate of 2.29 homicide victims per 100,000 women.
The FBI counted 12,822 male homicide victims in the same period, and the Census Bureau estimated 163.2 million men in the U.S. That yields a rate of 7.86 homicide victims per 100,000 men.
The FBI counted 7,071 white homicide victims in the same period. The Census Bureau reported a white population figure of 260.2 million in 2021. That yields a rate of 2.72 homicides per 100,000 white people.
The FBI counted 8,698 black homicide victims, and the Census Bureau estimated a black population of 49.6 million in 2021. That yields a rate of 17.5 homicides per 100,000 black people.
The FBI counted 2,629 Hispanic or Latino homicide victims in 2024, and the Census Bureau estimated a Hispanic population of 62.1 million in 2021. That yields a rate of 4.2 homicides per 100,000 Hispanic people.
Even the highest HRC figure of 2.3 homicides per 100,000 is substantially lower than almost every other figure—on par with the female homicide rate of 2024 and lower than the rates for men, whites, blacks, and Hispanics.
When President Donald Trump highlighted the crime in Washington, D.C., to justify federal intervention, he noted the nation’s capital city experienced a homicide rate of 27.3 per 100,000 in 2024. That figure comes from a Rochester Institute of Technology study comparing 24 U.S. cities. The city at the bottom of the list, Boston, experienced 3.7 homicides per 100,000 in 2024.
The overall U.S. rate for 2023 was 5.6 homicides per 100,000—still substantially higher than the highest Human Rights Campaign estimate.
While the Human Rights Campaign claims its numbers of transgender victims are likely an undercount, the true number would have to be orders of magnitude higher in order to justify hyperbolic claims like an “epidemic of violence.”
The Human Rights Campaign’s own data form an indictment against HRC’s claim that transgender people face an “epidemic of violence.” Here’s the good news: The threats to transgender people have been greatly exaggerated. People who identify as transgender do not need to fear random violent attacks.
Yet HRC’s list of transgender homicide victims also reveals something else: These people aren’t the victims of roving “far-right extremists” who object to using “ze” and “zir” to refer to transgender unicorns. People like Matt Walsh aren’t targeting the real transgender homicide victims.
For instance, HRC identifies Juchuan Hamilton, 25, a man who identified as a woman and went by “Quanesha Shantel,” as one of the victims. Jeremy Reynolds, Hamilton’s ex-boyfriend, shot and killed him after Hamilton broke off their relationship, the Greensboro News & Record reported.
The list also includes Santonio Coleman, a 48-year-old man found bloodied and unresponsive on a trail in Athens, Georgia. While initial reports suggested a homicide, the coroner later said the injuries may be consistent with a possible accidental fall. The Daily Signal has reached out to the Georgia Bureau of Investigation and the police detective assigned to the case.
In some cases, as of 36-year-old Latoya “Tee” Arnold, police have said the homicide was not likely motivated by the victim’s gender identity.
As the Human Rights Campaign notes, “Many victims were killed by a friend, family, or romantic/sexual intimate partner.”
Every murder is horrific, and Americans should mourn when lives are taken too soon. But a few isolated instances do not justify claiming an “epidemic of violence.” It’s time for the Human Rights Campaign to dial down the hyperbole.
The Human Rights Campaign did not respond to The Daily Signal’s request for comment by publication time.
Related posts:
- We Can’t Continue to ‘Call Evil Good, and Good Evil’
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- Odd Bedfellows: LGBTQ Groups, Pro-Gun Orgs Denounce Gun Ban