In South America, the nation of Guyana is under threat. Just next door, its socialist, autocratic neighbor Venezuela is actively attempting to lay the foundation for a guerrilla war over the region of Essequibo.
Essequibo makes up about 160,000 square kilometers of Guyanese territory, about two-thirds of the country’s total landmass, and is home to vast reserves of natural resources like gold, diamonds, bauxite, and, most notably, oil. Thanks to strategic cooperation with American companies like ExxonMobil, Guyana has been able to tap into these vast natural resources, making it the fastest-growing economy in the Western Hemisphere.
But this rapid development has not gone unnoticed.
Venezuela has long claimed the Essequibo region as part of its national territory, rejecting the legitimacy of the 1899 Arbitral Award, which first settled Guyanese-Venezuelan borders in the eyes of international law.
Having failed to stop Guyana from enshrining its claim’s legitimacy in the eyes of international courts, and still eyeing Essequibo’s newly developed oil wealth, Nicolas Maduro’s regime has increasingly turned to threats of military force against Guyana.
Recently, this aggression has intermittently boiled over, with incidents ranging from the use of state-backed criminal gangs to assault Guyanese troops to the sending of a Venezuelan warship to demand information from an ExxonMobil oil facility in Guyana’s exclusive economic zone. At the same time, Venezuela has been building up its military forces along the shared border.
These incidents signal that Maduro—needing to drive up domestic support to counteract his own destruction of Venezuela’s economy—increasingly seeks to dominate Venezuela’s neighbor.
Venezuela has the military capacity to do just that. And to build up its military capabilities even further, it’s recently looked overseas to China, Russia, and Iran.
For the last five years, it’s relied on China and Russia for arms, using them to modernize and expand its military forces via access to an arsenal of weapons from small arms to surface-to-air missiles to anti-drone devices.
Beyond this, Venezuela remains one of the most militarized states in Latin America, maintaining a relatively large and competent force. It has access to an extremely mobile force equipped for the kind of jungle warfare that would be encountered in an invasion of Guyana, including extensive forces of rangers, jungle battalions, and an array of aircraft and patrol boats.
In the face of this much larger potential adversary, the current Guyanese Defense Force would likely fare poorly in a conventional conflict. While Guyana has developed close cooperation with regional partners like the U.S., Brazil, and France, it currently lacks the capability to stop Venezuelan aggression for long enough to allow its allies to mobilize.
Guyana has made some steps in the right direction, with a 2025 defense budget that marks an almost 121 percent increase from only two years prior. Unfortunately, though, its current approach—an attempt to build up conventional forces—will manifest slowly and at significant cost, and Venezuela may be tempted to act long before these investments pay off.
But there’s a better solution. To capitalize on its increased defense spending and successfully deter Venezuelan aggression, Guyana should focus on developing cheap, asymmetrical warfare capabilities in the short term and on expanding its conventional ground forces in the long term.
On the ground, the Guyanese Defense Force should prioritize developing its antiair and anti-tank capabilities. All of Guyana’s principal security partners—the U.S., Brazil, and France—have developed extremely robust and time-tested weapons in this field. And Venezuela maintains a largely mechanized force with supporting aircraft—making these systems essential for Guyana’s defense.
On the sea, the Guyanese Defense Force should prioritize developing a larger force of multipurpose patrol boats like the Mark VI, capable of switching between riverine and littoral waters.
In the air, Guyana should develop its drone capabilities. Unmanned aerial vehicles serve a dual purpose; they offer a way to enhance Guyanese surveillance over Essequibo while also developing Guyanese strike capabilities without the expense of maintaining a large manned air force.
By focusing on these shorter-term affordable, adaptable, and asymmetrical warfare capabilities across land, sea, and air, Guyana can maximize its defense budget and complicate Venezuelan operational planning, thereby enhancing deterrence.
At the same time, Guyana can build out its conventional forces as part of its long-term deterrence against Venezuelan aggression.