As a country critical to U.S. national and international security, Turkey’s slide towards authoritarianism is most disturbing.

Though currently mired in deep political economic problems on the home front it remains an emerging power, especially given the tectonic geopolitical shifts underway in Eurasia.

It is a vital American foreign policy interest that the Turkish republic does not follow the Russian or Chinese path towards a major power status. In order to prevent this outcome, Washington must help Ankara steer back towards the path of democracy, which is all the more critical given a growing Turkish influence, particularly in Central Asia.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a 3-month state of emergency in ten provinces in the country’s south affected in the wake of the devastating earthquake that has claimed more than 50,000 lives.

This move allows President Erdogan, who has already gained sweeping powers since moving the country from a parliamentary to a presidential system, greater authority over decision-making.

The timing is significant in that the emergency is due to be lifted about a week before presidential and parliamentary elections slated for May 14. Given the poor state of the economy with inflation above 80 percent, the upcoming polls are the hardest for Erdogan and his ruling Justice & Development Party who have been in power for nearly 20 years. 

With his best days behind him, Erdogan is increasingly desperate to hold on to his power as he drives fears that he will engage in electoral engineering, especially given that this year marks the centenary of the founding of the Turkish republic on October 23, 1923, following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.

A key feature of Erdogan’s reign has been his efforts to steer Turkey towards resurging as a major global player. Building on the fact that his country is among the world’s top 20 economies the Erdogan government has expended massive resources towards projecting influence in all possible directions.

Such efforts have failed in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, but they have met considerable success in the Transcaspian region in the form of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS).

The reason why OTS has proven successful is because it brings together a number of countries, especially in Central Asia, on the basis of a shared ethno-linguistic Turkic heritage.

Turkey enjoys immense influence in countries such Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan whose languages are mutually intelligible with Turkish. Many people in these countries look up to Turkey as a model to emulate. This sentiment extends to millions of my fellow Uyghurs who are struggling against China’s oppression. 

Many of these countries in Turkey’s sphere of influence are, themselves, in the early stages on their respective paths towards political reform. The future of the regime in Türkiye – the new official name of the Turkish republic – thus has much broader international implications.

What makes this all the more pivotal is the current moment where Russia in the aftermath of Ukraine is losing influence. While the Chinese are trying to fill the vacuum being left behind by the Russians through their economic heft, the Turks have the historical and cultural advantage. 

Security and prosperity in the heart of Eurasia depends on the countries of the region who are asserting their sovereignty to embrace democratic norms and values.

Since the rise of western civilization this region has been isolated from the world and even now the United States and its western allies have limited means by which they can directly help Central Asians realize their potential. Turkey remains the logical partner in this effort but that cannot happen if Turkey itself is on an autocratic path. The fate of democracy in Turkey therefore has major international implications. 

U.S.-Turkish relations have become very complicated under Erdogan, which prevented successive administrations from preventing Turkey’s descent towards authoritarianism.

However, the country is approaching an inflection point. Washington must prepare for the coming post-Erdogan era, which will be an opportunity to help Ankara course correct. Such a strategy will help the U.S. manage Eurasia at a time when Russian influence is on the wane.