The federal government spent so much more than the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) had expected in Fiscal Year 2023 that the CBO’s projection set a record for inaccuracy, the agency reports in a new analysis.

In “The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2023,” released on December 15, the CBO compares its May 2022 budget projections for FY2023 (updated them to include the estimated effects of influences like subsequently-enacted legislation) to the final results for the fiscal year, which ended on September 30.

Adjustments made since CBO’s May 2022 budget projections for FY2023 increased revenues by $26 billion (or 0.5 percent), but increased its projections of outlays even more (by $40 billion, or 0.7 percent).

The analysis finds that the Biden Administration spent far more, and took in much less, than the CBO had projected in FY2023:

As a result of the underestimation of spending and the overestimation of revenue, “CBO’s deficit projection of $1.0 trillion for 2023 was $1.0 trillion less than the actual amount.”

That difference was equal to 3.9 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—more than three-and-a-half times the average absolute error of 1.1 percent of GDP in the agency’s deficit projections from 1985 through 2022.

Misestimates in three categories accounted for nearly three-fourths of the difference between the projected and actual deficit:

“The errors in CBO’s projections of revenues and outlays in 2023 were larger than the average absolute errors in the agency’s projections for previous years,” CBO reports.

However, the size of the errors wasn’t just “larger than the average” – some projections were so far off that they set records:

Effects of the Supreme Court’s June 2023 decision prohibiting the Biden Administration’s planned cancellation of outstanding student loans were excluded from the review analysis.

Nonetheless, the CBO does note that, by thwarting Biden’s unconstitutional loan-forgiveness scheme, the Supreme Court decision reduced the deficit by $333 billion in Fiscal Year 2023:

“In June 2023, the Supreme Court barred the Administration from implementing its forgiveness plan. Thus, in August 2023, the Administration recorded a $333 billion reduction in outlays for the student loan program. That action reduced the 2023 deficit.”

The business and economic reporting of CNSNews.com is funded in part with a gift made in memory of Dr. Keith C. Wold.