Errors in employment estimates by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BSL) have been four times greater in recent months they were in previous years, BLS historical data reveal.

On Friday, after the BLS announced it had revised its employment estimates for May and June down by more than a quarter million jobs (258,000 lower combined), President Donald Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer.

McEntarfer, who was appointed by former President Joe Biden and confirmed in January of 2024, had a “history of inaccuracies and incompetence” and had “completely eroded public trust in the government agency charged with disseminating key data used by policymakers and businesses to make consequential decisions,” the White House explained in a statement regarding Entarfer’s dismissal:

“Under McEntarfer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consistently published overly optimistic jobs numbers — only for those numbers to be quietly revised later.”

Indeed, in August the BLS admitted in a preliminary estimate of its annual benchmark revision that there were actually 818,000 fewer nonfarm jobs added during the 12 months ending in March than it had previously reported:

“The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates an adjustment to March 2024 total nonfarm employment of -818,000 (-0.5 percent).”

…

“The final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2025 with the publication of the January 2025 Employment Situation news release.”

But, even the preliminary revision of -818,000 was off by more than 200,000 jobs, according to the final revision released on February 7, 2025:

“Compared with the sample-based, seasonally adjusted published estimate for March 2024, total nonfarm employment had a revision of -589,000 or -0.4 percent. The not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment estimate was revised by -598,000 or -0.4 percent.”

Thus, the -818,000 preliminary revision was off by 229,000 jobs, or lowered by 28%, compared to the -589,000 final number.

The -0.4 final revision is also four times greater than the past decade’s average annual revision of 0.1 percent – and the largest of any year in that period – according to the final BLS report for the 12 months ending in March of 2024:

“Over the prior 10 years, the annual benchmark revision at the total nonfarm level has averaged 0.1 percent (in absolute terms), with a range of less than 0.05 percent to 0.3 percent.”

Photo By: Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The extreme inaccuracy and unreliability of the monthly BLS reports have significant negative consequences for the nation, the White House noted in its statement Friday, explaining how past errors may have been behind the Federal Reserve’s recent refusal to lower interest rates:

• Today, BLS had to revise down May and June jobs reports by a combined 258,000 jobs. These previous faulty jobs reports enabled the Federal Reserve to continue its disastrous policy of keeping interest rates high.
  • On June 6, The New York Times reported: “A solid jobs report for May has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s stance that it can take its time before restarting interest rate cuts.”
  • On July 3, The New York Times reported that the June jobs report “fortifies the Federal Reserve’s case that it does not need to be in a hurry to lower borrowing costs.”

“During McEntarfer’s tenure, BLS was consistently plagued by technical errors and leaks of sensitive information,” the White House added, citing news reports of how advance leaks of data have given insiders unfair advantages over others who relied on (and had to wait for) the monthly information:

• The Washington Post, 8/28/24: “The job revisions for last year and early 2024 appeared on a government website about a half-hour after their scheduled release time. But despite the delay, a handful of financial firms were able to obtain the information — which showed the largest downward revision to annual job creation in 15 years — before it was posted publicly. The gaffe appeared to run counter to the nonpartisan statistical agency’s long-standing policies intended to prevent individual stakeholders, particularly financial traders, from gaining any edge by ensuring that information is made widely accessible to everyone at the same time.”

House Committee on Education and the Workforce, 12/10/24:

• “In March [2024], news reports revealed a BLS economist shared nonpublic information with several Wall Street firms.”
• “On May 15[, 2024], BLS accidentally loaded data files to its website 30 minutes prior to the scheduled release time of the consumer price index.”
• “On August 21[, 2024], while the public waited for the release of the job numbers, some Wall Street firms got a head start as BLS released the numbers to firms that spoke to the agency by phone, potentially giving them an unfair advantage.”