Analysis: Putin's ruthless power play may not preclude a revival of Ukraine grain deal
Analysis from CNN's Stephen Collinson
Vladimir Putin visits an exhibition in Moscow on July 13. Alexander Kazakov/AFP/Getty Images
Russian President Vladimir Putin just reminded the world that he has the capacity to apply pain far beyond the excruciating torment he’s inflicting on Ukraine.
Russia’s suspension of a deal allowing the export of Ukrainian grain from a region fabled as the world’s bread basket threatens to cause severe food shortages in Africa and send prices spiraling in supermarkets in the developed world. In the United States, it represents a political risk for President Joe Biden, who is embarking on a reelection campaign and can hardly afford a rebound of the high inflation that hounded US consumers at its peak last year.
Russia’s decision looked at first sight like a face-saving reprisal for an attack claimed by Ukraine on a bridge linking the annexed Crimean peninsula to the Russian mainland. The bridge was a vanity project for Putin and the apparent assault represented another humiliation for the Russian leader in a war that has gone badly wrong.
The Black Sea grain deal, agreed last year and brokered by Turkey and the United Nations, was a rare diplomatic ray of light during a war that has shattered Russia’s relations with the US and its allies and has had global reverberations.
By refusing to renew it, Putin appears again to be seeking to impose a cost on the West, in return for the sanctions strangling the Russian economy. He may reason that a food inflation crisis might help splinter political support in NATO nations for the prolonged and expensive effort to save Ukraine. And grain shortages afflicting innocent people in the developing world could exacerbate international pressure for a negotiated end to a war that has turned into a disaster for Russia.
It's early morning in Kyiv. Here's everything you need to know
From CNN staff
Russian forces launched airstrikes on Ukraine's southern port city of Odesa early Tuesday — 24 hours after the key Crimean bridge linking the annexed peninsula to Russia was hit by two strikes.
Meanwhile, Moscow pulled out of a deal that allows Ukraine to safely export grain to the global market. The decision was widely criticized as Ukrainian officials urged world leaders to continue the agreement without Russia.
Catch up on the big developments in the war here:
Crimean bridge:
Key bridge attacked: A source from Ukraine's security service (SBU) said the attack on the Crimean bridge, also known as the Kerch Bridge, which killed a couple and injured their daughter, was a joint operation of the SBU and Ukraine's naval forces. The Kremlin claimed two Ukrainian seaborne drones struck the bridge, though it did not provide evidence for the allegation. The Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation later said the bridge was struck by "naval drones." Russian President Vladimir Putin called it a "terrorist attack" and directed his country's authorities to investigate.
Why the bridge matters: The $3.7 billion bridge is strategically important because it links Russia’s Krasnodar region with Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia from Ukraine in 2014. It was the physical expression of Putin’s objective to take over Ukraine and bind it to Russia forever and serves as a vital supply line for Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.
Black Sea grain deal:
What to know about the deal: The agreement, brokered last year by Turkey and the UN, allowed Kyiv to export grain from its ports and navigate safe passage through the Black Sea after Moscow blockaded docks in the region. The deal had been renewed three times, but Russia has argued that it has been hampered in exporting its own products. Over the weekend, Putin indicated he would not renew the pact, saying its main purpose — to supply grain to countries in need — had “not been realized.”
What Kyiv says: Ukraine wants some version of the deal to continue even without Russia. The head of the Ukrainian Grain Association urged the international community to “find the leverage” to keep moving grain. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he sent a proposal on how to continue the initiative to Turkey's president and the UN chief.
Consequences: Wheat and corn prices on global commodities markets jumped Monday after Russia pulled out. The collapse of the pact threatens to push up food prices for consumers worldwide. In addition to wheat exports, Ukraine is among the world’s top three exporters of barley, maize and rapeseed oil, according to agricultural data firm Gro Intelligence. It is alsoby far the biggest exporter of sunflower oil, according to the UN.
Global reaction: Western officials criticized Moscow's decision to pull out. The White House said Russia's withdrawal will worsen global food insecurity and urged Moscow to reverse its decision. The UK called Russia's decision a “blatant attempt to harm the most vulnerable as part of its illegal war.” The EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell said it was "completely unjustified, weaponizing, the hunger of the people." France called on Russia to “stop blackmailing global food security."
Other developments:
Eastern front: Russian forces are redeploying around the embattled city of Bakhmut to try and stop Kyiv’s offensive, a top Ukrainian general said. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of the land forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said conditions on the eastern front are "challenging." Russia has also concentrated more than 100,000 soldiers in the Kupyansk area, a Ukrainian official said.
Southern front: Ukraine says it is advancing along the southern front, despite Russian airstrikes and a large concentration of landmines, commander of the Tavria Joint Forces. Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavskyi said Monday. Russian forces had been battering Ukrainian troops, but the soldiers under his command were firing back, he said.
21 min ago
Russia launches airstrikes on Odesa, 24 hours after Crimean bridge attack
From CNN's Sebastian Shukla, Alex Marquardt, Scott McWhinnie and Josh Pennington
Explosions were heard in the city of Odesa in southern Ukraine early Tuesday, about 24 hours after an apparent Ukrainian attack on the Crimean bridge that connects the annexed peninsula with Russia.
A CNN team on the ground heard air raid sirens around 2 a.m. local time and saw air defenses operating across the city, followed by four large explosions.
Searchlights were seen coming from the direction of Odesa's port. The crew captured an object falling out of the sky on fire.
Serhiy Bratchuk, a spokesperson for the Odesa military administration, said the Ukraine air defense was repelling a Russian air attack.
"Odesa: Air defense combat work is underway," Bratchuk said in a Telegram post Tuesday.
Oleh Kiper, head of Odesa's region's military administration, said Russia was using drones.
"Several waves of attacks are expected. There is also a missile threat!" Kiper added in a post on Telegram.
He urged residents to stay in shelters until the air raid sirens ended.
Travel "resumed using the opposite direction on the rightmost lane," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said on Telegram Tuesday shortly after midnight local time.
"As we reported to the (Russian) President today, we were preparing to launch bridge traffic as soon as possible. Initial inspection of the span structures was carried out, which confirmed that their condition allows for traffic flow," Khusnullin said.
Khusnullin said officials worked out a temporary solution for organizing traffic on the bridge, saying "the span was additionally tested before making a decision on the possibility of traffic re-opening."
A video was circulated on social media — that CNN can not independently verify — shows two vehicles crossing the bridge during nighttime.
A Ukrainian security official on Monday claimed Kyiv's responsibility for an attack on the bridge linking the annexed Crimean peninsula to the Russian mainland — a vital supply line for Russia's war effort in Ukraine and a personal project for President Vladimir Putin.
3 hr 26 min ago
Ukraine can export grain without Russia if provided international support, grain association president says
From CNN’s Niamh Kennedy and Isa Soares Tonight staff
The international community needs to “find the leverage” to move grain from Ukraine to the global market without Russia, the head of the Ukrainian Grain Association said Monday.
Nikolay Gorbachov said he is “sure that Ukraine can export grain without Russia” if it is provided “international support.” It comes after Russia withdrew from the Black Sea grain deal.
“The international community, developed countries have to find the leverage how to move grain from Ukraine to the world market,” the president told CNN. According to Gorbachov, this support could come from the Turkish fleet or insurance guarantees from companies.
Gorbachov refuted Russian President Vladimir Putin's claims that Ukraine has not fulfilled a vital part of the grain deal in ensuring grain is exported to poorer countries, calling it “manipulation.”
Although 60% of grain exported from Ukraine moves through European ports, it “doesn’t mean that Europe absorbs this grain as a final consumer," he said, adding that Ukrainian grain feeds about 200 million people outside the country.
"If we will not export this grain, I'm sure that the developed countries will pay,” he said.
Gorbachov maintained that Ukraine’s status as one of the world’s leading grain producers should drive countries to intervene sooner rather than later.
3 hr 29 min ago
Russia has assembled more than 100,000 soldiers in the Kupyansk area, Ukrainian official says
From CNN's Maria Kostento and Vasco Cotovio
More than 100,000 Russian soldiers have gathered in the Kupyansk area to try and break Kyiv’s defenses, a Ukrainian military spokesperson said Monday.
“The enemy has concentrated a very powerful grouping on the Lyman-Kupyansk direction, with over 100,000 personnel, over 900 tanks, and over 370 MLRS,” said Serhii Cherevatyi, deputy commander for strategic communications of the Eastern Military Grouping. “The enemy deployed airborne units, the best motorized infantry units there. As additional support, there are the combat army reserve, territorial troops, Storm-Z companies.”
He added Russian forces are "putting everything into breaking through our defense. Our soldiers are standing firm in defense."
Cherevatyi said the Russian push in the area was to try and achieve some success after Ukraine seized the momentum around Bakhmut.
“(Russians) need to show at least some success, so they have put maximum effort into this area, doing everything they can and cannot, to show offensive actions,” he said.
In Bakhmut: Cherevatyi said Russian forces remained on the back foot in the eastern city, adding their casualties were increasing.
“The enemy's losses are already approaching those that were at the peak of the fighting with the Wagner,” he said. “The Russians are continuously renewing their combat staff, sending paratroopers there first and foremost in the hope of stopping our offensive. “We are being very cautious and deliberate in order to preserve our forces and people as much as possible.”
1 min ago
Black Sea grain deal collapse poses massive global hunger threat
From CNN's Anna Cooban
Harvester works on a wheat fields in Prymorske, Ukraine on July 5. Amadeusz Swierk/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Wheat and corn prices on global commodities markets jumped Monday after Russia pulled out of a crucial deal allowing the export of grain from Ukraine.
The collapse of the pact threatens to push up food prices for consumers worldwide and tip millions into hunger.
The White House said the deal had been “critical” to bringing down food prices around the globe, which spiked after Russia invaded Ukraine in February last year.
“Russia’s decision to suspend participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative will worsen food insecurity and harm millions of vulnerable people around the world,” Adam Hodge, a spokesperson for the US National Security Council, said in a statement.
Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade jumped 2.7% to $6.80 a bushel and corn futures rose 0.94% to $5.11 a bushel as traders feared an impending supply crunch of the staple foods.
The contracts gave up those gains later in the day. Wheat prices are still down 54% from the all-time high hit in March 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, while corn prices are 37% lower than they were in April 2022, when they reached a 10-year high.
The Black Sea deal — originally brokered by Turkey and the United Nations a year ago — has ensured the safe passage of ships carrying grain from Ukrainian ports. The agreement was set to expire at 5 p.m. ET Monday (midnight local time in Istanbul, Kyiv and Moscow).
So far the deal has allowed for the export of almost 33 million metric tons of food through Ukrainian ports, according to UN data.
The deal had been renewed three times, but Russia has repeatedly threatened to pull out, arguing that it has been hampered in exporting its own products.
Over the weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that he would not renew the pact, saying that its main purpose — to supply grain to countries in need — had “not been realized.”
Russian forces launched airstrikes on Ukraine's southern port city of Odesa Tuesday — 24 hours after the key Crimean bridge linking the annexed peninsula to Russia was hit by two strikes.
Vladimir Putin visits an exhibition in Moscow on July 13. Alexander Kazakov/AFP/Getty Images
Russian President Vladimir Putin just reminded the world that he has the capacity to apply pain far beyond the excruciating torment he’s inflicting on Ukraine.
Russia’s suspension of a deal allowing the export of Ukrainian grain from a region fabled as the world’s bread basket threatens to cause severe food shortages in Africa and send prices spiraling in supermarkets in the developed world. In the United States, it represents a political risk for President Joe Biden, who is embarking on a reelection campaign and can hardly afford a rebound of the high inflation that hounded US consumers at its peak last year.
Russia’s decision looked at first sight like a face-saving reprisal for an attack claimed by Ukraine on a bridge linking the annexed Crimean peninsula to the Russian mainland. The bridge was a vanity project for Putin and the apparent assault represented another humiliation for the Russian leader in a war that has gone badly wrong.
The Black Sea grain deal, agreed last year and brokered by Turkey and the United Nations, was a rare diplomatic ray of light during a war that has shattered Russia’s relations with the US and its allies and has had global reverberations.
By refusing to renew it, Putin appears again to be seeking to impose a cost on the West, in return for the sanctions strangling the Russian economy. He may reason that a food inflation crisis might help splinter political support in NATO nations for the prolonged and expensive effort to save Ukraine. And grain shortages afflicting innocent people in the developing world could exacerbate international pressure for a negotiated end to a war that has turned into a disaster for Russia.
Russian forces launched airstrikes on Ukraine's southern port city of Odesa early Tuesday — 24 hours after the key Crimean bridge linking the annexed peninsula to Russia was hit by two strikes.
Meanwhile, Moscow pulled out of a deal that allows Ukraine to safely export grain to the global market. The decision was widely criticized as Ukrainian officials urged world leaders to continue the agreement without Russia.
Catch up on the big developments in the war here:
Crimean bridge:
Key bridge attacked: A source from Ukraine's security service (SBU) said the attack on the Crimean bridge, also known as the Kerch Bridge, which killed a couple and injured their daughter, was a joint operation of the SBU and Ukraine's naval forces. The Kremlin claimed two Ukrainian seaborne drones struck the bridge, though it did not provide evidence for the allegation. The Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation later said the bridge was struck by "naval drones." Russian President Vladimir Putin called it a "terrorist attack" and directed his country's authorities to investigate.
Why the bridge matters: The $3.7 billion bridge is strategically important because it links Russia’s Krasnodar region with Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia from Ukraine in 2014. It was the physical expression of Putin’s objective to take over Ukraine and bind it to Russia forever and serves as a vital supply line for Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.
Black Sea grain deal:
What to know about the deal: The agreement, brokered last year by Turkey and the UN, allowed Kyiv to export grain from its ports and navigate safe passage through the Black Sea after Moscow blockaded docks in the region. The deal had been renewed three times, but Russia has argued that it has been hampered in exporting its own products. Over the weekend, Putin indicated he would not renew the pact, saying its main purpose — to supply grain to countries in need — had “not been realized.”
What Kyiv says: Ukraine wants some version of the deal to continue even without Russia. The head of the Ukrainian Grain Association urged the international community to “find the leverage” to keep moving grain. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he sent a proposal on how to continue the initiative to Turkey's president and the UN chief.
Consequences: Wheat and corn prices on global commodities markets jumped Monday after Russia pulled out. The collapse of the pact threatens to push up food prices for consumers worldwide. In addition to wheat exports, Ukraine is among the world’s top three exporters of barley, maize and rapeseed oil, according to agricultural data firm Gro Intelligence. It is alsoby far the biggest exporter of sunflower oil, according to the UN.
Global reaction: Western officials criticized Moscow's decision to pull out. The White House said Russia's withdrawal will worsen global food insecurity and urged Moscow to reverse its decision. The UK called Russia's decision a “blatant attempt to harm the most vulnerable as part of its illegal war.” The EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell said it was "completely unjustified, weaponizing, the hunger of the people." France called on Russia to “stop blackmailing global food security."
Other developments:
Eastern front: Russian forces are redeploying around the embattled city of Bakhmut to try and stop Kyiv’s offensive, a top Ukrainian general said. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of the land forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said conditions on the eastern front are "challenging." Russia has also concentrated more than 100,000 soldiers in the Kupyansk area, a Ukrainian official said.
Southern front: Ukraine says it is advancing along the southern front, despite Russian airstrikes and a large concentration of landmines, commander of the Tavria Joint Forces. Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavskyi said Monday. Russian forces had been battering Ukrainian troops, but the soldiers under his command were firing back, he said.
Explosions were heard in the city of Odesa in southern Ukraine early Tuesday, about 24 hours after an apparent Ukrainian attack on the Crimean bridge that connects the annexed peninsula with Russia.
A CNN team on the ground heard air raid sirens around 2 a.m. local time and saw air defenses operating across the city, followed by four large explosions.
Searchlights were seen coming from the direction of Odesa's port. The crew captured an object falling out of the sky on fire.
Serhiy Bratchuk, a spokesperson for the Odesa military administration, said the Ukraine air defense was repelling a Russian air attack.
"Odesa: Air defense combat work is underway," Bratchuk said in a Telegram post Tuesday.
Oleh Kiper, head of Odesa's region's military administration, said Russia was using drones.
"Several waves of attacks are expected. There is also a missile threat!" Kiper added in a post on Telegram.
He urged residents to stay in shelters until the air raid sirens ended.
Travel "resumed using the opposite direction on the rightmost lane," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said on Telegram Tuesday shortly after midnight local time.
"As we reported to the (Russian) President today, we were preparing to launch bridge traffic as soon as possible. Initial inspection of the span structures was carried out, which confirmed that their condition allows for traffic flow," Khusnullin said.
Khusnullin said officials worked out a temporary solution for organizing traffic on the bridge, saying "the span was additionally tested before making a decision on the possibility of traffic re-opening."
A video was circulated on social media — that CNN can not independently verify — shows two vehicles crossing the bridge during nighttime.
A Ukrainian security official on Monday claimed Kyiv's responsibility for an attack on the bridge linking the annexed Crimean peninsula to the Russian mainland — a vital supply line for Russia's war effort in Ukraine and a personal project for President Vladimir Putin.
The international community needs to “find the leverage” to move grain from Ukraine to the global market without Russia, the head of the Ukrainian Grain Association said Monday.
Nikolay Gorbachov said he is “sure that Ukraine can export grain without Russia” if it is provided “international support.” It comes after Russia withdrew from the Black Sea grain deal.
“The international community, developed countries have to find the leverage how to move grain from Ukraine to the world market,” the president told CNN. According to Gorbachov, this support could come from the Turkish fleet or insurance guarantees from companies.
Gorbachov refuted Russian President Vladimir Putin's claims that Ukraine has not fulfilled a vital part of the grain deal in ensuring grain is exported to poorer countries, calling it “manipulation.”
Although 60% of grain exported from Ukraine moves through European ports, it “doesn’t mean that Europe absorbs this grain as a final consumer," he said, adding that Ukrainian grain feeds about 200 million people outside the country.
"If we will not export this grain, I'm sure that the developed countries will pay,” he said.
Gorbachov maintained that Ukraine’s status as one of the world’s leading grain producers should drive countries to intervene sooner rather than later.
More than 100,000 Russian soldiers have gathered in the Kupyansk area to try and break Kyiv’s defenses, a Ukrainian military spokesperson said Monday.
“The enemy has concentrated a very powerful grouping on the Lyman-Kupyansk direction, with over 100,000 personnel, over 900 tanks, and over 370 MLRS,” said Serhii Cherevatyi, deputy commander for strategic communications of the Eastern Military Grouping. “The enemy deployed airborne units, the best motorized infantry units there. As additional support, there are the combat army reserve, territorial troops, Storm-Z companies.”
He added Russian forces are "putting everything into breaking through our defense. Our soldiers are standing firm in defense."
Cherevatyi said the Russian push in the area was to try and achieve some success after Ukraine seized the momentum around Bakhmut.
“(Russians) need to show at least some success, so they have put maximum effort into this area, doing everything they can and cannot, to show offensive actions,” he said.
In Bakhmut: Cherevatyi said Russian forces remained on the back foot in the eastern city, adding their casualties were increasing.
“The enemy's losses are already approaching those that were at the peak of the fighting with the Wagner,” he said. “The Russians are continuously renewing their combat staff, sending paratroopers there first and foremost in the hope of stopping our offensive. “We are being very cautious and deliberate in order to preserve our forces and people as much as possible.”
Harvester works on a wheat fields in Prymorske, Ukraine on July 5. Amadeusz Swierk/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Wheat and corn prices on global commodities markets jumped Monday after Russia pulled out of a crucial deal allowing the export of grain from Ukraine.
The collapse of the pact threatens to push up food prices for consumers worldwide and tip millions into hunger.
The White House said the deal had been “critical” to bringing down food prices around the globe, which spiked after Russia invaded Ukraine in February last year.
“Russia’s decision to suspend participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative will worsen food insecurity and harm millions of vulnerable people around the world,” Adam Hodge, a spokesperson for the US National Security Council, said in a statement.
Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade jumped 2.7% to $6.80 a bushel and corn futures rose 0.94% to $5.11 a bushel as traders feared an impending supply crunch of the staple foods.
The contracts gave up those gains later in the day. Wheat prices are still down 54% from the all-time high hit in March 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, while corn prices are 37% lower than they were in April 2022, when they reached a 10-year high.
The Black Sea deal — originally brokered by Turkey and the United Nations a year ago — has ensured the safe passage of ships carrying grain from Ukrainian ports. The agreement was set to expire at 5 p.m. ET Monday (midnight local time in Istanbul, Kyiv and Moscow).
So far the deal has allowed for the export of almost 33 million metric tons of food through Ukrainian ports, according to UN data.
The deal had been renewed three times, but Russia has repeatedly threatened to pull out, arguing that it has been hampered in exporting its own products.
Over the weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that he would not renew the pact, saying that its main purpose — to supply grain to countries in need — had “not been realized.”
