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33 min ago

Analysis: Why Nikki Haley needs to win in New Hampshire

From CNN's Harry Enten

Let's be real: It's all on the line for Nikki Haley in next week’s Republican primary in the Granite State. If the former South Carolina governor can't win in New Hampshire, I'm not sure where she can win. 

Here are the facts:

• Donald Trump holds an over 50-point polling advantage nationally.
• He is up by 30 points in Haley's home state of South Carolina. 
• No Republican nominee has ever lost both Iowa and New Hampshire during the nominating season. 

It goes beyond these three stats, however. 

New Hampshire is custom-made for Haley. We know from the polling that Trump has struggled with Republican-leaning independents. They are expected to make up nearly 50% of the vote in next week’s primary. (This has historically been the case, and, no, registered Democrats can't vote in the primary, unlike what Trump has said.)

We know that Trump has been relatively weak with moderate voters. They will make up far more of the GOP electorate in New Hampshire than they did in Iowa or will in any of the other early-voting states. 

Trump also has issues with wealthier voters. New Hampshire Republicans tend to be on the relatively wealthy side compared to other Republican primary electorates. 

Now, none of this is to say that Trump would lose the GOP nomination if Haley wins on Tuesday. He'd still be the heavy favorite to emerge as his party’s 2024 nominee. 

It's more to say that Haley has no real statistical argument for how she can win the nomination if she can't win in New Hampshire. 

1 min ago

Here are some high profile conservatives serving as surrogates as Trump seeks to secure GOP nomination

From CNN's Daniel Strauss and Kristen Holmes

Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, sporting a white and gold “Caucus Captain” hat, beamed as he marveled about the charming nature of the Iowa caucuses. Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene was all smiles as she talked to a conservative media host. Texas Rep. Ronny Jackson mingled with guests at the Iowa Events Center. They were all awaiting Donald Trump’s victory speech Monday night – a moment of vindication for the former president’s earliest supporters, who had been in lockstep with him during his most precarious moments in his political career.

They are also part of an army of high-profile lawmakers and conservative figures who have served as his surrogates to pester his opponents, campaign on his behalf while Trump instead chooses to be in and out of court rooms, and argue that the party is uniting around the former president.

Their numbers include:

• Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake 
• Florida Rep. Byron Donalds
• Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy
• North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum

Lake and Donalds made a point of helping campaign for Trump in early primary states. Ramaswamy and Burgum endorsed the former president after ending their campaigns due to a lack of traction among voters.

This weekend, ahead of the New Hampshire primary, House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik is expected to campaign alongside the former president.

Learn more about some of the high-profile figures helping Trump in locking down the GOP nomination.

1 min ago

Catch up on key takeaways from CNN's town hall with Nikki Haley

From CNN's Eric Bradner, Arit John, Daniel Strauss and Gregory Krieg

Nikki Haley’s goal in New Hampshire’s Republican presidential primary Tuesday is to “be strong" and do better than she did in the Iowa caucuses, she said at a CNN town hall Thursday night at New England College in Henniker, New Hampshire.

But the former South Carolina governor stopped short of saying she needs to defeat former President Donald Trump in the Granite State primary. Polls, however, do show she is much closer to Trump in New Hampshire, where she is expected to benefit from a more moderate Republican primary electorate — with undeclared voters also able to participate in Tuesday’s contest.

Here are key takeaways from the CNN town hall:

• Haley affirms her view that America has "never been a racist country": Earlier this week, Haley was asked in a Fox News interview if she believes the Republican Party was racist, after an MSNBC host wondered whether Haley could win the GOP nomination as a woman of color. Haley answered the question more broadly, responding that America has “never been a racist country.” During Thursday’s town hall, the former governor was asked if she stood by that answer, given the country’s history of legal racism, including slavery. Haley doubled down, saying that America was founded on the idea that all men are created equal.
• Responding to Trump's racist dog whistles: Haley was asked about racist dog whistles Trump has employed against her in recent days ahead of the New Hampshire primary.“I know President Trump well,” Haley said. “That’s what he does when he feels threatened. That’s what he does when he feels insecure.” Haley, who is daughter of Indian immigrants, dismissed Trump misspelling her first name Nimarata (in a way some viewed as a play on the insult “nimrod") as “name-calling” and said she wouldn’t waste energy on it.
• Pardoning Trump: Haley didn’t close the door to pardoning Trump if she were elected president. She asserted she would not preemptively pardon him, saying that she felt “everything needs to play out.” She strongly suggested she does not believe in the type of blanket immunity Trump has recently argued presidents should have. But she went on to say that under a scenario in which she was president and Trump was convicted of any of the felony charges he is currently facing, she would consider a pardon. Haley said she felt that would be “healing for the country.”
• Focus on foreign policy: The former US ambassador to the UN criticized Biden for failing to take a more aggressive posture toward Iran, saying that Iran is behind both Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen. She lambasted both Trump and Biden for the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. She was also asked whether she would end the United States’ long-standing commitment to a two-state solution to address the decades of conflict between Israel and Palestinians. She argued that “Israel has to defend themselves first” after the October 7 terrorist attack and said she understands Israel’s discomfort with the presence of Hamas.

Catch up on all of the key takeaways from the town hall with Nikki Haley.

Let's be real: It's all on the line for Nikki Haley in next week’s Republican primary in the Granite State. If the former South Carolina governor can't win in New Hampshire, I'm not sure where she can win. 

Here are the facts:

It goes beyond these three stats, however. 

New Hampshire is custom-made for Haley. We know from the polling that Trump has struggled with Republican-leaning independents. They are expected to make up nearly 50% of the vote in next week’s primary. (This has historically been the case, and, no, registered Democrats can't vote in the primary, unlike what Trump has said.)

We know that Trump has been relatively weak with moderate voters. They will make up far more of the GOP electorate in New Hampshire than they did in Iowa or will in any of the other early-voting states. 

Trump also has issues with wealthier voters. New Hampshire Republicans tend to be on the relatively wealthy side compared to other Republican primary electorates. 

Now, none of this is to say that Trump would lose the GOP nomination if Haley wins on Tuesday. He'd still be the heavy favorite to emerge as his party’s 2024 nominee. 

It's more to say that Haley has no real statistical argument for how she can win the nomination if she can't win in New Hampshire. 

Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, sporting a white and gold “Caucus Captain” hat, beamed as he marveled about the charming nature of the Iowa caucuses. Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene was all smiles as she talked to a conservative media host. Texas Rep. Ronny Jackson mingled with guests at the Iowa Events Center. They were all awaiting Donald Trump’s victory speech Monday night – a moment of vindication for the former president’s earliest supporters, who had been in lockstep with him during his most precarious moments in his political career.

They are also part of an army of high-profile lawmakers and conservative figures who have served as his surrogates to pester his opponents, campaign on his behalf while Trump instead chooses to be in and out of court rooms, and argue that the party is uniting around the former president.

Their numbers include:

Lake and Donalds made a point of helping campaign for Trump in early primary states. Ramaswamy and Burgum endorsed the former president after ending their campaigns due to a lack of traction among voters.

This weekend, ahead of the New Hampshire primary, House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik is expected to campaign alongside the former president.

Learn more about some of the high-profile figures helping Trump in locking down the GOP nomination.

Nikki Haley’s goal in New Hampshire’s Republican presidential primary Tuesday is to “be strong" and do better than she did in the Iowa caucuses, she said at a CNN town hall Thursday night at New England College in Henniker, New Hampshire.

But the former South Carolina governor stopped short of saying she needs to defeat former President Donald Trump in the Granite State primary. Polls, however, do show she is much closer to Trump in New Hampshire, where she is expected to benefit from a more moderate Republican primary electorate — with undeclared voters also able to participate in Tuesday’s contest.

Here are key takeaways from the CNN town hall:

Catch up on all of the key takeaways from the town hall with Nikki Haley.