Overall, 48% of likely caucusgoers say Trump would be their first choice, 20% name former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and 16% Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with the rest of the field below 10%.
Trump stood at 51% in the December DMR/NBC poll and 43% in October, with his chief rivals in the teens in both of those prior polls.
Haley’s numerical move to second place is within the margin of error. Neither her support nor DeSantis’ has changed significantly since the December poll, when DeSantis stood at 19% to Haley’s 16% in a survey with a 4.4 point error margin.
In this poll, Haley faces a sizable enthusiasm gap compared with Trump and DeSantis. While majorities of their supporters say they are enthusiastic about their candidates, only about 4 in 10 of hers say the same.
Overall, roughly two-thirds of likely caucusgoers — 68% — say their minds are made up about whom to support. The poll was fielded among 705 likely GOP caucusgoers during the final stretch of campaigning from January 7 to January 12, with Trump’s backers far more likely to say they are committed to their candidate than those supporting other candidates.
7 min ago
The Iowa caucuses on Monday are set to be the coldest on record — by a lot
From CNN's Monica Garrett and Brandon Miller
A person walks near the Iowa State Capitol after a blizzard left several inches of snow in Des Moines, Iowa, on January 13. (Marco Bello/Reuters)
Iowa will have its coldest caucuses ever on Monday, as a dangerous Arctic blast dives into the central US this weekend and lasts through early next week. Monday is expected to be the coldest January day for Iowa in at least five years, with wind chills as low as minus 40 Fahrenheit.
Iowans will wake up to temperatures more than 15 degrees below zero on Monday morning. Nearly the entire state will fail to climb above zero degrees Monday afternoon, the exception being the far southeastern portion of the state that may reach a degree or two above zero. This would be the first time since February 2021 that the high temperature in Des Moines fails to reach zero degrees.
Add winds to this bitter cold, and wind chill will reach life-threatening levels at minus 20 to minus 40 degrees for the entire day.
25 min ago
Key things to know about tomorrow's Iowa caucuses — and why they are so important for GOP campaigns
From CNN's Zachary B. Wolf
The first test of the 2024 presidential election is set for tomorrow, when Iowa Republicans gather to caucus in high school gyms, community buildings and churches.
The first event of the party primary calendar for the past half-century, the caucuses will provide an initial moment of truth for former President Donald Trump’s comeback bid and could help Republicans tired of Trump decide which of his challengers to rally behind.
Here's what you need to know about the Iowa caucuses:
What is a caucus? Caucuses are not primaries. Primary elections are conducted like other US elections – at polling places and by secret ballot, heldthroughout the day and usually also with absentee and early voting.
Caucuses are essentially meetings run by political parties, convened at a specific time – 7 p.m. CT in Iowa. Since it isn’t a traditional election, a candidate’s performance in Iowa is often viewed as a test of his or her campaign’s organizational strength.
How are votes cast at a caucus? For Republicans, surrogates for candidates give final pitches after the caucuses get underway and then paper ballots are distributed to caucusgoers. They’re counted on-site, and the results are shared with the party.
Does the winner in Iowa usually win the White House? In an open year, when there’s no incumbent running for a party’s nomination, Iowa has a spotty record at picking the president, particularly for Republicans. Only one Republican, George W. Bush in 2000, won a contested Iowa face-off and then went on to win the White House. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama won the Iowa caucuses in 2008 and went on to win the White House. Jimmy Carter was the top Democrat in 1976, but he placed second to a slate of“uncommitted” delegates. Still, the momentum propelled him to the party nomination and ultimately the White House.
Countdown to the caucuses: GOP presidential candidates are racing to give their final pitch to Iowa voters one day before the state's pivotal caucuses. Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are battling to emerge as a top alternative to former President Donald Trump, who continues to dominate the GOP primary.
Weather impacts: Iowa is bracing for blizzard conditions as the mix of snow and frigid temperatures impacts campaign events. Iowa is expected to have their coldest caucuses ever on Monday, and GOP candidates worry that subzero temperatures could scramble caucus turnout.
What's at stake on Monday: The outcome of the caucuses can help build or break candidates’ momentum as they vie to be the GOP party's nominee and take on President Joe Biden in November. Trump is aiming for a definitive win in Iowa in his pursuit to regain the presidency as DeSantis and Haley aim to dent his lead
Overall, 48% of likely caucusgoers say Trump would be their first choice, 20% name former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and 16% Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with the rest of the field below 10%.
Trump stood at 51% in the December DMR/NBC poll and 43% in October, with his chief rivals in the teens in both of those prior polls.
Haley’s numerical move to second place is within the margin of error. Neither her support nor DeSantis’ has changed significantly since the December poll, when DeSantis stood at 19% to Haley’s 16% in a survey with a 4.4 point error margin.
In this poll, Haley faces a sizable enthusiasm gap compared with Trump and DeSantis. While majorities of their supporters say they are enthusiastic about their candidates, only about 4 in 10 of hers say the same.
Overall, roughly two-thirds of likely caucusgoers — 68% — say their minds are made up about whom to support. The poll was fielded among 705 likely GOP caucusgoers during the final stretch of campaigning from January 7 to January 12, with Trump’s backers far more likely to say they are committed to their candidate than those supporting other candidates.
A person walks near the Iowa State Capitol after a blizzard left several inches of snow in Des Moines, Iowa, on January 13. (Marco Bello/Reuters)
Iowa will have its coldest caucuses ever on Monday, as a dangerous Arctic blast dives into the central US this weekend and lasts through early next week. Monday is expected to be the coldest January day for Iowa in at least five years, with wind chills as low as minus 40 Fahrenheit.
Iowans will wake up to temperatures more than 15 degrees below zero on Monday morning. Nearly the entire state will fail to climb above zero degrees Monday afternoon, the exception being the far southeastern portion of the state that may reach a degree or two above zero. This would be the first time since February 2021 that the high temperature in Des Moines fails to reach zero degrees.
Add winds to this bitter cold, and wind chill will reach life-threatening levels at minus 20 to minus 40 degrees for the entire day.
The first test of the 2024 presidential election is set for tomorrow, when Iowa Republicans gather to caucus in high school gyms, community buildings and churches.
The first event of the party primary calendar for the past half-century, the caucuses will provide an initial moment of truth for former President Donald Trump’s comeback bid and could help Republicans tired of Trump decide which of his challengers to rally behind.
Here's what you need to know about the Iowa caucuses:
What is a caucus? Caucuses are not primaries. Primary elections are conducted like other US elections – at polling places and by secret ballot, heldthroughout the day and usually also with absentee and early voting.
Caucuses are essentially meetings run by political parties, convened at a specific time – 7 p.m. CT in Iowa. Since it isn’t a traditional election, a candidate’s performance in Iowa is often viewed as a test of his or her campaign’s organizational strength.
How are votes cast at a caucus? For Republicans, surrogates for candidates give final pitches after the caucuses get underway and then paper ballots are distributed to caucusgoers. They’re counted on-site, and the results are shared with the party.
Does the winner in Iowa usually win the White House? In an open year, when there’s no incumbent running for a party’s nomination, Iowa has a spotty record at picking the president, particularly for Republicans. Only one Republican, George W. Bush in 2000, won a contested Iowa face-off and then went on to win the White House. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama won the Iowa caucuses in 2008 and went on to win the White House. Jimmy Carter was the top Democrat in 1976, but he placed second to a slate of“uncommitted” delegates. Still, the momentum propelled him to the party nomination and ultimately the White House.
