CNN Poll: Haley trims Trump’s lead to single digits in New Hampshire ahead of primary
From CNN's Ariel Edwards-Levy
Nikki Haley greets voters during a campaign town hall in Plymouth, New Hampshire, on December 28. Brian Snyder/Reuters
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has trimmed former President Donald Trump’s lead in the Republican primary race in New Hampshire to single digits, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.
Trump still holds a meaningful lead in the poll, with the backing of 39% of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire compared to Haley’s 32%. The rest of the field lags far behind in the poll, with former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 12%, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 5% and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson at less than 1%.
Support for Haley has risen 12 percentage points since the last CNN/UNH poll in November, continuing an upward trajectory that began last summer, while her opponents –including Trump – have seen their numbers remain stable or tick slightly downward since autumn.
Haley’s support has grown dramatically among those voters registered as undeclared, New Hampshire’s term for independent registrants – she’s up 18 points with this group since November. It has also grown 20 points among those who are ideologically moderate. Those gains come amid a push from her campaign in the state, including an endorsement last month from New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. The Granite State’s GOP primary is January 23.
The strength of Haley’s challenge to Trump in the state speaks to the contours of New Hampshire’s primary electorate, in which those more moderate and less staunchly partisan voters make up a larger share of participants than they do in Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses, which are happening next week. Trump has crossed the 50% mark in most recent polling on the Iowa caucuses, and he holds wider majorities in national polls on the Republican nomination.
A little more than 4 in 10 likely primary voters in the CNN/UNH poll are undeclared voters who plan to vote in the GOP primary (45%), rather than registered Republicans. About one-third describe themselves as moderates (32%).
Here's why the Iowa caucuses are a crucial test for GOP campaigns
Analysis from CNN's Zachary B. Wolf
The first test of the 2024 presidential election hits January 15, when Iowa Republicans gather to caucus in high school gyms, community buildings and churches.
The first event of the party primary calendar for the past half century, the caucuses will provide an initial moment of truth for former President Donald Trump’s comeback bid and could help Republicans tired of Trump decide which of his challengers to rally behind.
What is a caucus? Caucuses are not primaries. Primary elections are conducted like other US elections – at polling places and by secret ballot, heldthroughout the day and usually also with absentee and early voting.
Caucuses are something else. They are essentially meetings run by political parties, convened at a specific time – 7 p.m. CT in Iowa. Since it isn’t a traditional election, a candidate’s performance in Iowa is often viewed as a test of his or her campaign’s organizational strength.
How are votes cast at a caucus? For Republicans, surrogates for candidates give final pitches after the caucuses get underway and then paper ballots are distributed to caucusgoers. They’re counted on-site, and the results are shared with the party.
Does the winner in Iowa usually win the White House? In an open year, when there’s no incumbent running for a party’s nomination, Iowa has a spotty record at picking the president, particularly for Republicans.
Only one Republican, George W. Bush in 2000, won a contested Iowa face-off and then went on to win the White House.
On the Democratic side, Barack Obama won the Iowa caucuses in 2008 and went on to win the White House. Jimmy Carter was the top Democrat in 1976, but he placed second to a slate of“uncommitted” delegates. Still, the momentum propelled him to the party nomination and ultimately the White House.
Some notable losses include when the RepublicanRonald Reagan placed second in 1980to George H.W. Bush, who ultimately became his running mate. Reagan, interestingly, had won the Iowa caucuses in 1976, although then-President Gerald Ford won the GOPnomination and subsequentlylost the White House.
The elderBush, despite winning the caucuses in 1980, lost them in 1988 to then-Sen. Bob Dole even though Bush was running as the sitting vice president. Bush went on to secure the GOP nomination.
And Trump, although he’s the favorite in pre-caucus polling this year, lost the Iowa caucuses in 2016 to Cruz.
Trump juggles campaign and courtroom: Former President Donald Trump — who continues to lead in polls and dominate the GOP primary — is toggling between courtroom appearances and campaign events this week. He's attending a hearing in federal court Tuesday over whether he's immune from prosecution for actions he took after the 2020 election.
Haley and DeSantis prepare to debate: Trump's GOP rivals — Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley —are getting ready to face off in a CNN debate in Des Moines, Iowa, on Wednesday as they battle to become the top alternative to Trump. The former president is once again skipping the debate despite qualifying for it.
Nikki Haley greets voters during a campaign town hall in Plymouth, New Hampshire, on December 28. Brian Snyder/Reuters
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has trimmed former President Donald Trump’s lead in the Republican primary race in New Hampshire to single digits, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.
Trump still holds a meaningful lead in the poll, with the backing of 39% of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire compared to Haley’s 32%. The rest of the field lags far behind in the poll, with former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 12%, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 5% and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson at less than 1%.
Support for Haley has risen 12 percentage points since the last CNN/UNH poll in November, continuing an upward trajectory that began last summer, while her opponents –including Trump – have seen their numbers remain stable or tick slightly downward since autumn.
Haley’s support has grown dramatically among those voters registered as undeclared, New Hampshire’s term for independent registrants – she’s up 18 points with this group since November. It has also grown 20 points among those who are ideologically moderate. Those gains come amid a push from her campaign in the state, including an endorsement last month from New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. The Granite State’s GOP primary is January 23.
The strength of Haley’s challenge to Trump in the state speaks to the contours of New Hampshire’s primary electorate, in which those more moderate and less staunchly partisan voters make up a larger share of participants than they do in Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses, which are happening next week. Trump has crossed the 50% mark in most recent polling on the Iowa caucuses, and he holds wider majorities in national polls on the Republican nomination.
A little more than 4 in 10 likely primary voters in the CNN/UNH poll are undeclared voters who plan to vote in the GOP primary (45%), rather than registered Republicans. About one-third describe themselves as moderates (32%).
The first test of the 2024 presidential election hits January 15, when Iowa Republicans gather to caucus in high school gyms, community buildings and churches.
The first event of the party primary calendar for the past half century, the caucuses will provide an initial moment of truth for former President Donald Trump’s comeback bid and could help Republicans tired of Trump decide which of his challengers to rally behind.
What is a caucus? Caucuses are not primaries. Primary elections are conducted like other US elections – at polling places and by secret ballot, heldthroughout the day and usually also with absentee and early voting.
Caucuses are something else. They are essentially meetings run by political parties, convened at a specific time – 7 p.m. CT in Iowa. Since it isn’t a traditional election, a candidate’s performance in Iowa is often viewed as a test of his or her campaign’s organizational strength.
How are votes cast at a caucus? For Republicans, surrogates for candidates give final pitches after the caucuses get underway and then paper ballots are distributed to caucusgoers. They’re counted on-site, and the results are shared with the party.
Does the winner in Iowa usually win the White House? In an open year, when there’s no incumbent running for a party’s nomination, Iowa has a spotty record at picking the president, particularly for Republicans.
Only one Republican, George W. Bush in 2000, won a contested Iowa face-off and then went on to win the White House.
On the Democratic side, Barack Obama won the Iowa caucuses in 2008 and went on to win the White House. Jimmy Carter was the top Democrat in 1976, but he placed second to a slate of“uncommitted” delegates. Still, the momentum propelled him to the party nomination and ultimately the White House.
Some notable losses include when the RepublicanRonald Reagan placed second in 1980to George H.W. Bush, who ultimately became his running mate. Reagan, interestingly, had won the Iowa caucuses in 1976, although then-President Gerald Ford won the GOPnomination and subsequentlylost the White House.
The elderBush, despite winning the caucuses in 1980, lost them in 1988 to then-Sen. Bob Dole even though Bush was running as the sitting vice president. Bush went on to secure the GOP nomination.
And Trump, although he’s the favorite in pre-caucus polling this year, lost the Iowa caucuses in 2016 to Cruz.
