DALLAS — The ratio of regroups (10) to shot attempts (four) in the Blackhawks-Stars overtime Friday did not generate much excitement.
The Stars held the puck for all but about 30 seconds throughout overtime but mostly just circled back into their own zone, over and over. They produced a couple decent looks, but they really never threatened much until taking advantage of Connor Bedard’s missed poke-check to set up Roope Hintz’s game-winner in the final seconds.
“It was one of the more dull overtimes I’ve seen this year,” Hawks coach Luke Richardson said.
And after every dull overtime period around the NHL, the push to tweak the three-on-three rules reemerges.
At the league’s general-managers meeting in November, the topics discussed included potential rule changes intended to inject more chaos into overtime. The idea is to prevent teams from continuously regrouping and encourage the chaotic series of two-on-one rushes that was originally imagined.
NHL executive vice president Colin Campbell mentioned a couple basketball-inspired tweaks: an over-and-back rule, to prevent teams from retreating past the red or blue line once they’ve crossed it, or a shot clock.
So what do the Hawks think about those potential changes? For starters, it’s worth noting the tactical approach and mindset in overtime has definitely evolved.
“It is [about] possession,” Tyler Johnson said. “The more you can wear a team down and catch guys tired, that’s when you get your odd-man opportunities. You really shouldn’t just take shots to take shots. Three-on-three hockey, what everyone wants it to be, if you want to win it, you can’t really play that way. [The Stars] did what they needed to do to win.”
Added Nick Foligno: “When you circle back, it’s funny [how] the gaps [change] sometimes, as you saw on [the Stars’ goal]. It allows you to get a step or make somebody make a bad decision.”
What’s interesting, though, is the statistics don’t really reflect the notion that overtimes have become less eventful.
In 2013-14 and 2014-15 — the final two years of four-on-four overtime — 58.0% and 55.5% of overtime games went to shootouts. That decreased to 38.9% in 2015-16, the first year of three-on-three, and has fluctuated between 31% and 36% in the eight seasons since.
This season, it’s at 33.9%, so it’s not like fewer games are ending in overtime than they used to.
Moreover, comparing the first three seasons of three-on-three to the last three seasons, the rate of shot attempts has decreased slightly (from 5.21 to 4.78 per five minutes) but the goal rate has actually increased slightly (from 0.48 to 0.53).
Plus, the Hawks are skeptical any rule changes would actually make things more exciting long-term. Johnson described it as “changing the game too much,” too.
“You change it one way and teams find another way to counter it,” Jason Dickinson said. “We’ve got the devil that we know, right? Rather than the one we don’t.”
Added Foligno: “I’ve heard the one where you can’t take it back over the red line once you’ve gone in. I just don’t know how really that’s going to affect three-on-three if there’s puck possession. There’s still so much [open] ice that that doesn’t really matter.
“The shot clock [idea] is tough, because you should be rewarded if you’re able to hold onto the puck that long. That’s why that first faceoff is so valuable; that’s why making sure you’re attacking at the right time is valuable. There’s a skill to three-on-three, and I don’t think you can overthink it too much.”
The Hawks, for reference, are now 3-1 in overtimes and 0-1 in shootouts this season.
They have produced 18 shot attempts while conceding 15 in three-on-three situations, so they have actually fared fairly well, with Bedard’s presence likely explaining why.