Two months into his time as Bears head coach, Matt Eberflus talked about their massive rebuild as though he’d be around for a decade. He sat at a round table in a courtyard at The Breakers in Palm Beach, Fla., at his first NFL annual meeting and seemed more than comfortable with getting a stripped-down roster in his debut season.
After two seasons and 23 losses in 32 games, he has seemed no less at ease lately as speculation swirls about the Bears firing him. Maybe he knows something everyone else doesn’t; maybe it’s simply his steady personality.
He didn’t react much when asked after the Cardinals game how important these late-season wins could be for keeping his job, saying he was focused on each game and “that’s all you can do in this business,” and he has talked about the end-of-season evaluation of offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and quarterback Justin Fields as though he’ll be in on those meetings.
“We’re looking to have our eyes forward and get better every single year,” Eberflus said before listing off a string of improvements he’s seen from Fields.
Bears president Kevin Warren and general manager Ryan Poles would say the final two games — they host the Falcons on Sunday, then visit the Packers — will factor into the equation on Eberflus, but there’s little doubt they already know all they need to in order to decide on his future.
But if Warren and Poles already are inclined to keep Eberflus, he can make that slightly easier for them to present to the public by winning the last two games convincingly.
It’s more about what he must avoid. Imagine Warren and Poles trying to explain retaining him if the Bears endure another epic late-game collapse or a defensive debacle leading up to that.
It was a tough sell for chairman George McCaskey when he kept former general manager Ryan Pace and coach Matt Nagy at the end of 2020 when there was zero indication they could turn it around.
“Frankly, I don’t know that a lot of people have confidence in this course of action,” he said as he tried to defend it.
It was an example of the organization being overly patient, and the thought when Warren arrived was that he’d ensure the Bears were run with higher standards and expectations.
Even if the Bears set aside Eberflus going 3-14 last season when the team was in full teardown mode, there are significant strikes against him.
They went into the season with playoff ambition, but crashed at 0-4 and eventually 2-7. They blew double-digit leads in the fourth quarter three times. Two assistant coaches exited for non-football reasons, including longtime Eberflus wingman Alan Williams, the defensive coordinator.
And throughout all of it, whether it was Williams’ situation, Chase Claypool’s whereabouts, Fields’ injury or the losses themselves, Eberflus struggled to manage the mess publicly.
But he has some points in his favor, which differentiates this from the Bears keeping Nagy after the 2020 season. If they get to eight wins, that’s a significant jump from three last season. And the defense, with new pass rusher Montez Sweat flourishing and Eberflus calling plays, has been one of the NFL’s best in the second half of the season.
Those factors also make this much different than 2021, when it was obvious in mid-November that the Bears would fire Nagy. He faced questions that were prefaced with the assumption it was happening, whereas it’s no certainty for Eberflus.
Warren and Poles still might have seen enough to shake their confidence, and resetting with an offensive-minded head coach seems especially prudent if the Bears plan to draft a new quarterback next year. But if they want to stick with Eberflus, and there’s a decent chance they do, he can solidify his standing with two competent, convincing performances to close the season.