Los Angeles could recover from the Palisades and Eaton Fires by 2029 — but that is a best-case scenario, according to a new report on the regional economic impact of the disaster.
The study, released late last week by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation, estimated that the total damage to property as a result of the January fires is “between $28.0 billion and $53.8 billion.” Economically, the impact represents “$4.6 billion to $8.9 billion in lost economic output in Los Angeles County over a five-year period (2025-2029)” and “tax revenue losses between $0.73 billion and $1.4 billion” to the county due to business losses and job losses in the region.
The study found that slightly more than half of all property within the Palisades Fire area (Pacific Palisades, Malibu, Topanga Canyon, and Santa Monica) was affected, while slightly less than half of all property within the Eaton Fire area (Pasadena and Altadena) was affected. The damage to business was even worse, at least in the Palisades Fire area, where 60% of the businesses were affected by the fire. In total, nearly 10,000 employees were affected by both fires.
The report describes three scenarios for recovery:
Scenario 1, the fastest recovery, annual economic losses decline to 57 percent in Year 2 (2026) and 15 percent in Year 3 (2027), with full recovery by Year 4 [2029]. Scenario 2 experiences a slower recovery, with $169.7 million in revenue losses and 1,370 jobs still affected by 2029, achieving full recovery by 2032. Scenario 3, the slowest recovery among the three, still shows $419.8 million in revenue losses and 3,290 jobs affected after five years, with full recovery extending to 2034.
The key, according to the report, which studied fire recovery patterns elsewhere is to start rebuilding as soon as possible — with a view to preventing future fires.
“Success depends on careful orchestration of multiple elements: strong leadership, sustained community engagement, and flexible adaptation of proven recovery practices to local conditions. The comprehensive approach must balance immediate needs with long-term resilience objectives while maintaining sensitivity to each community’s unique characteristics,” the report says.
The 2029 target is indeed ambitious: Breitbart News learned last week that the projected start date for reconstruction of a local public school, for example, was only in 2028.
The Westside Current noted that the report was commissioned by the Southern California Leadership Council, headed by former California Gray Davis, and by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation. Davis told journalists that the speed of rebuilding was the most important factor — but added that rebuilt homes needed to be more resistant to fire.
Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News and the host of Breitbart News Sunday on Sirius XM Patriot on Sunday evenings from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. PT). He is the author of The Agenda: What Trump Should Do in His First 100 Days, available for pre-order on Amazon. He is also the author of The Trumpian Virtues: The Lessons and Legacy of Donald Trump’s Presidency, now available on Audible. He is a winner of the 2018 Robert Novak Journalism Alumni Fellowship. Follow him on Twitter at @joelpollak.