As the Yankees awaited Gerrit Cole’s results over the weekend, general manager Brian Cashman told reporters he was “prepared for the worst.”
On Monday, after getting a second opinion, the Yankees had to accept ‘the worst.’
Cole will undergo Tommy John surgery on Tuesday, the Yankees announced Monday evening. He’ll miss the entire ’25 season and likely won’t be ready for the start of next season either, as the procedure typically carries a 12-18 month recovery timetable.
Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who performed Trevor Story’s shoulder surgery last April and Tommy John on Chris Sale (2020) and former Sox top prospect Bryan Mata (2021), will operate.
Since signing a nine-year, $324 million contract with the his lifelong favorite team ahead of the 2020 campaign, Cole owns a 3.12 ERA over 125 regular-season starts. He was an All-Star each year between ’21-23 and led the AL in ERA and innings in ’23. He finished fourth, second, and ninth in AL Cy Young Voting in his first three Yankee seasons, before winning the award in ’23.
“From the the time I first dreamed of wearing the Yankees uniform, my goal has always been to help bring a World Series championship to New York. That dream hasn’t changed—I still believe in it, and I’m more determined than ever to achieve it,” Cole wrote on Instagram Monday evening. “Today, the most respected medical experts in the field recommend that I undergo Tommy John surgery. This isn’t the news any athlete wants to hear, but it’s the necessary next step for my career.
“I have a lot left to give, and I’m fully committed to the work ahead. I’ll attack my rehab every day and support the 2025 Yankees each step of the way. I love this game, I love competing, and I can’t wait to be back on the mound—stronger than ever. See you soon.”
Cole initially underwent diagnostic tests on his elbow late last week. After receiving the intial Tommy John recommendation over the weekend, Cole flew to see ElAttrache for a second opinion.
The news comes almost exactly one year after Cole began experiencing pain in his pitching elbow and was diagnosed with nerve irritation and edema. Despite not having surgery, he missed several months of the season. However, upon making his ’24 debut in mid-June he pitched the remainder of the regular-season schedule and through the postseason, which ended with the Dodgers beating the Yankees in a five-game World Series.
Cole’s offseason contract saga also set off some warning bells. He exercised his opt-out back in November, but the contract included a proviso that enabled the Yankees to prevent their ace from reaching free agency: they could void his opt-out by adding one year and $36 million onto the remainder of his contract, increasing the remainder to five years and $180 million through 2029.
It seemed almost a fait accompli that the Yankees would capitulate rather than risk losing Cole. Instead, they told him and agent Scott Boras that they “weren’t necessarily comfortable” tacking on the additional year and salary, general manager Brian Cashman told reporters, including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch.
Then, Cole and the Yankees agreed to stay together as if nothing had ever happened. In hindsight, it’s telling that Cole was willing to forgo what was likely his last big free agency opportunity. He’s entering his age-34 season, he’s shown diminished average velocity on most of his pitch mix in recent years, and he’s fooling batters less; after landing between the 82nd and 93rd MLB percentile in Whiff Rate each season from 2018-22, he was in the 50th and 44th percentile the last two years, respectively. He was in the 76th and 70th percentile in strikeout rate the last two years, a steep drop from the 89th-to-99th percentile range of the previous five seasons.
On Monday afternoon, as his team played the Tigers, Yankees manager Aaron Boone told the broadcast that Cole’s absence wouldn’t be a “death sentence” for the team.
Only time will tell. But it’s certainly the heaviest straw on a camel’s back that was already staggering under the weight of injuries, which have been piling up for the Yankees throughout spring training. Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil is shut down for at least three months due to a lat strain, DJ LeMahieu will miss at least a ‘couple’ weeks due to a calf strain, and pitching prospect Chase Hampton also had Tommy John in late February. Slugger Giancarlo Stanton will begin the season on the injured list. He isn’t doing any baseball activities as he navigates what he described to reporters as “severe” injuries to both elbows; he also told reporters that if double elbow surgery is required, it will be season-ending.
All on the heels of losing Juan Soto to the Mets in free agency, too.
Without Cole leading the rotation, the Yankees will turn to Max Fried, whom they signed to the largest free-agent deal in left-hander history back in December: eight years, $218 million, just north of the previous record, set by David Price’s Red Sox contract. New York also has Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, and Marcus Stroman. Other internal options include veteran right-hander Carlos Carrasco, who’s a non-roster invitee in Yankees camp, and prospect Will Warren, who struggled in his brief debut last season.
But in Cole’s absence, the Yankees’ path back to October is a far more treacherous one. And the AL East crown is up for grabs.
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