Thank God for the Jets.
Even at 2-6, saddled with all the challenges of a rebuild, the future of football still feels brighter in New England than it does in New Jersey.
On Sunday, the Patriots paused questions about their toughness with a memorable come-from-behind win that also nuked the Jets’ season. More than overcoming Drake Maye’s exit, the best part of the Pats’ upset upon further review was this: they beat their longtime rivals straight up.
They dared Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson to throw against them 1-on-1, calling their highest rate of man coverage this season. Offensively, they executed a run-heavy plan. And in the end, the Jets pushed back by harassing Jacoby Brissett with blitz after blitz during his final drive.
That drive, you’ll remember, ended with Rhamondre Stevenson punching in a 1-yard touchdown on fourth-and-goal, the ultimate display of football toughness. This isn’t to say the Jets didn’t help along the way. The Patriots may not even get to the goal line if not for New York’s missed kicks, eight penalties and poor game management.
But the Pats won. And they won by out-toughing a more talented team, which must be their calling card, especially after trading one veteran away Monday with more deals potentially on the horizon ahead of next Tuesday’s trade deadline.
Relatedly, Sunday may have marked the start of a new phase this season. Every Patriots player to suit up played, a first this year and a rarity across the league. That included eight offensive snaps for seventh-round rookie tight end Jaheim Bell, and rookie Javon Baker making his debut on kick return after hardly practicing returns in training camp.
The Patriots’ stated goal is to get younger, develop their rookies and second-year players as they try to lay a foundation for the future. So how did that future look, sans Maye?
Here’s what the film revealed about the Patriots’ big win:
3-of-6 for 23 yards, 46 rushing yards
Accurate throw percentage: 83.3%
Under pressure: 0-of-1, 29 rushing yards, sack
Against the blitz: 1-of-1, 11 yards
Behind the line: 1-of-1 for 9 yards
0-9 yards downfield: 2-of-2 for 14 yards
10-19 yards downfield: 0-of-1 (drop)
20+ yards downfield: 0-of-2 (drop)
Notes: It’s impossible to know how Maye would have played had he finished the game, but the quality of his start isn’t up for debate.
This was another strong – albeit brief – showing from the rookie.
Maye read the field with crystal clarity, both pre- and post-snap, and made only one iffy decision. He played decisively and delivered a spectacular, pinpoint deep ball to Tyquan Thornton while on the run, only to watch Thornton drop it. Maye made five accurate throws in six attempts, which he dotted all over the field.
His scrambles were an instant antidote to the Jets’ man-blitzes, a staple of their Week 3 game plan versus Brissett. Maye rushed twice for 29 yards when under pressure, including one blitz he burned for 11 yards. His 17-yard touchdown was another case of beating the Jets’ man-to-man coverage. After breaking through an undisciplined Jets pass rush, Maye only had a linebacker to beat and did, cruising toward a delirious crowd at more than 20 MPH.
15-of-24 for 132 yards, 11 rushing yards
Accurate throw percentage: 73.9%
Under pressure: 4-of-7 for 43 yards, sack
Against the blitz: 5-of-7 for 61 yards,14 rushing yards
Behind the line: 3-of-3 for 14 yards
0-9 yards downfield: 10-of-12 for 72 yards (drop)
10-19 yards downfield: 1-of-5 for 12 yards (drop)
20+ yards downfield: 1-of-3 for 34 yards
Notes: A typical Brissett performance with an atypical finish.
Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt reined in the offense once Brissett replaced Maye early in the second quarter, choosing to live off quick pass concepts and a run-heavy plan. But Van Pelt eventually needed his nine-year veteran to take control on that final drive, and Brissett did, despite a late Jets changeup.
The Jets blitzed Brissett four times on his last drive, matching the number of blitzes they had called against him in the entire game to date. Brissett hung tough in the pocket and overcame early misses (a low incompletion to Hunter Henry), before scrambling 14 yards past Haason Reddick to beat one third-down blitz and firing deep to Kayshon Boutte to defeat another. Those two plays powered Brissett’s best drive of the game (he had just one completion that covered 10-plus yards in the air before that Boutte completion).
Brissett remains a caretaker and not a playmaker; a quarterback who reflects his surrounding cast rather than elevates it. But the toughness and calm he showed can’t be discounted. Beating the blitz – to initially keep the Patriots out of bad plays and then create good ones – was the best thing he did all game, and exactly what the offense needed from him Sunday.
Otherwise, this was the same fringe starter fans felt frustrated watching earlier this season, with a few mistakes that included a botched hand-off in the deep red zone and a few predetermined reads in the second half.
Turnovers: Patriots 0, Jets 0
Explosive play rate: Patriots 8.0%, Jets 10.5%
Success rate: Patriots 43.5%, Jets 50.8%
Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 3-4, Jets 3-5
Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 31%, Jets 30.5%
Personnel breakdown: 60% of snaps in 11 personnel, 30% of snaps in 12 personnel, 5% of snaps in 21 personnel, 3% of snaps in 13 personnel, 2% of snaps in jumbo personnel.***
Personnel production: 37.8% success rate in 11 personnel, 47% success rate in 12 personnel, 50% success rate in 13 personnel, 66% success rate in 21 personnel, 100% success rate in jumbo personnel.
First-down down play-calls: 60% run (33% success rate), 40% pass (30% success rate)
Play-action rate: 19.4%
The Patriots returned to their roots.
Van Pelt deployed multiple backs or tight ends on 12 of 17 first-quarter plays. He dialed up play-action on almost half of Maye’s pass attempts. This was the run-first, play-action-heavy offense Van Pelt was expected to bring with him from Cleveland.
Anticipating blitz pressure from the Jets, the Pats called multiple toss plays and a wham run on the opening snap, with backup offensive lineman Lecitus Smith played fullback. Eventually, Van Pelt’s plan morphed after Maye took his exit and all off-script playmaking with him. Between Maye’s last drive and Brissett’s game-winner the Patriots’ first-down run rate jumped to 76% before their final drive, a concerted effort to play more conservative.
Broken tackles: RB Rhamondre Stevenson 7, QB Drake Maye 4, WR Tyquan Thornton, TE Austin Hooper
Pressure allowed: C Ben Brown 4 (2 sacks, 2 hurries), LT Vederian Lowe 3 (3 hurries), RT Demontrey Jacobs (QB hut, hurry), LG Michael Jordan (QB hit), Team (hurry)
Run stuffs allowed: Team 6
Drops: WR Kendrick Bourne 2, WR Kayshon Boutte, Thornton
Personnel breakdown: 37% three-corner nickel, 33% base defense, 13% three-safety nickel, 13% dime, 4% dollar.****
Coverage breakdown: 61% man, 39% zone
Blitz rate: 1.6%
Blitz efficacy: 0% offensive success rate and 4 yards per play allowed
Stealing elements of past game plans against Aaron Rodgers, the Patriots kept it simple.
They played a season-high rate of man-to-man coverage. They shadowed Davante Adams with their No. 1 corner. They sent one blitz all game on the Jets’ 2-point conversion, but feigned pressure in critical situations. And they led Rodgers into the matchups he knew he would pick on; namely, Marcus Jones covering Garrett Wilson.
That matchup, the Patriots knew, would tempt Rodgers into repeated deep throws for Wilson, even though such passes are low-percentage plays. Overall, while Rodgers did plenty of damage throwing at Jones (113 passing yards), he had a couple misses the Pats were counting on. Keeping matchups in mind, Rodgers also turned to his running backs and tight ends in key situations (6.25 yards per attempt), which the Pats preferred over Wilson and Adams, two of the best receivers in football.
Overall, the plan won out. Rodgers finished 4-of-9 for 73 yards and a sack versus man-to-man in the second half. He completed just 50% of his passes overall against man coverage, excluding two defensive pass interference penalties.
Pressure: DL Keion White 3 (QB hit, 2 hurries), DL Jaquelin Roy 2 (2 hurries), LB Christian Elliss (sack), DL Davon Godchaux (QB hit), LB Anfernee Jennings (QB hit), LB Jahlani Tavai (hurry)
Run stuffs: White, Tavai, Team
Pass deflections: CB Christian Gonzalez, DB Marcus Jones, Elliss
Missed tackles: S Jaylinn Hawkins 2, Gonzalez 2
CB Christian Gonzalez
Zero catches allowed in man-to-man coverage. That’s a No. 1 cornerback.
TE Hunter Henry
Henry was near automatic, especially in critical situations. He had at least two more catches than every other Patriots pass-catcher.
LB Christian Elliss
Shaking off a rough starting debut last week, Elliss posted a team-high nine tackles, one sack and a pass breakup. That disruption helped end two Jets drives.
WR Kendrick Bourne
Three targets, two drops, zero catches. Brutal.
C Ben Brown
Brown arrived and instantly became the Patriots’ best offensive linemen, out-performing his line mates versus Houston and then Jacksonville. But Sunday, he was the worst of the bunch, allowing two sacks and four total pressures.
*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards.
**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.
***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one running back, three tight ends; 21 = two halfbacks, one tight end.
****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel = five; dime = six; dollar = seven.