When Billy Wagner is formally inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame this summer, he will become the 40th former Red Sox player to be enshrined in Cooperstown.
Who could be next?
While the Red Sox don’t have any first-ballot contenders like Pedro Martinez or David Ortiz coming anytime soon, there will be a number of notable former players up for consideration. Most are long-shots, others are still active and may not appear on the ballot until well into next decade, but a few will garner consideration in the meantime and could follow a similar long-term trajectory as Wagner, who didn’t top the 75% vote threshold until his 10th and final attempt.
Here are a few of the names to watch in the coming years.
The Red Sox had two other notable players on this year’s ballot, neither of whom came close to earning induction. Manny Ramirez appeared on 34.3% of the total ballots and Dustin Pedroia got 11.9%.
Though Ramirez was among the most accomplished players of his era, he will never make the Hall of Fame thanks to his use of performance-enhancing drugs. Next year will be his final year on the ballot and there is no reason to expect nearly half of the electorate will change its mind after voting against him for years.
Pedroia, on the other hand, does have a plausible path to Cooperstown.
The former Red Sox second baseman has a complicated candidacy, but also enough going in his favor that a slow buildup in support over many years is possible. Pedroia enjoyed a dominant 10-year run that included an MVP, four All-Star nods and two World Series titles, but injuries also cut his career short, preventing him from amassing the career stats that usually serve as Hall of Fame benchmarks.
If future voters prioritize peak performance over longevity, that could be great news for players like Pedroia and former Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez, who also shone brightly before injuries took their toll in his early 30s. It might take a while, but Pedroia could certainly be the next Red Sox player to make the Hall.
Next year Rick Porcello will be among those eligible for the Hall of Fame, and though it’s not expected to be a particularly strong ballot, the 2016 Cy Young Award winner is probably a long shot to earn election.
Two other former Red Sox pitchers will join the ballot shortly afterwards, Jon Lester starting in 2027 and David Price in 2028. Of those two, Lester likely has the better odds.
Lester will be a fascinating test-case of what qualifies as a Hall of Fame starting pitcher in the 21st century. Though not as dominant as some of his peers, Lester was consistently a front-of-the-rotation horse who finished his career as one of the most successful big game pitchers of his era.
Lester finished his career with a 200-117 record, 3.66 ERA and 2,488 strikeouts over 2,740 innings, all of which rank inside the top 10 for starting pitchers since 2000 who pitched at least 2,500 innings. He was also a five-time All-Star, finished top-five in the Cy Young vote three times, and played a key role in three World Series championships.
Lester’s candidacy is the polar opposite of Pedroia and Hernandez. Instead of a massive peak, Lester consistently delivered over a long stretch, and while his numbers don’t approach what used to be considered the benchmarks for Hall of Fame starting pitchers, the game has changed and Lester may well help set new precedents for future starters in the 21st century.
Even if Pedroia and Lester ultimately fall short, we know there’s at least one former Red Sox player out there who will get a call to Cooperstown when the time comes.
Mookie Betts is going to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He’s already an eight-time All-Star, seven-time Silver Slugger, six-time Gold Glove winner, three-time World Series champion and an MVP winner. He’s one of the most accomplished players of his era, and by the time his playing days are done his counting stats should all be right where they need to be.
Chris Sale will probably make it to Cooperstown in the end as well. His injury-riddled run with the Red Sox dimmed his chances, but last year’s Cy Young campaign gave him both a second peak and the one accolade that had previously eluded him during his best years in the 2010s.
While it’s much too soon to say with certainty, Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers may wind up having pretty good cases of their own. Bogaerts already has 1,693 career hits and is under contract for another nine years with San Diego. He’d only have to average around 145 hits per season over the life of his deal to approach 3,000, which would probably make him close to a lock.
As for Devers, he has 200 career home runs and is just entering his age-28 season. With nine seasons left on his current Red Sox deal he could be close to 500 by the time his contract expires. Even then he’d only be 37, young enough where he could conceivably play a bit longer to get over the hump.
And by that point, who knows? Others may have emerged to begin their own Hall of Fame journeys.