The Celtics have been favored in nearly every game they’ve played this season.
Now, the historical odds are stacked against the defending NBA champions.
After dropping the first two games of its second-round playoff series against the New York Knicks — and blowing a 20-point second-half lead at home in both — Boston must win four of its next five to avoid what would be a stunningly early end to its title defense.
There is precedent for NBA teams overcoming 0-2 deficits to win series. Plenty of it. It’s happened 28 times in the best-of-seven format in league history, including two successful Celtics comebacks, and has become increasingly common in recent years (seven times in the last four postseasons).
Overall, though, teams that fell behind 0-2 in a best-of-seven went on to lose the series 92.1% of the time (327-28). Boston is 2-16 when facing that deficit, with its lone series victories coming in the 2017 first round against the eighth-seeded Chicago Bulls (won in six) and the 1969 NBA Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers (won in seven).
No NBA club has come back from 0-3 down to win a playoff series, making Game 3 on Saturday at Madison Square Garden (3:30 p.m., ABC) a de facto elimination game for the Celtics. Tickets are expected to rank among the most expensive in Knicks history, with the cheapest seats topping $700 on the secondary market as of Friday.
“You don’t want to be in these situations. But I’m excited about it,” Celtics big man Al Horford said. “I’m excited for this opportunity that we have in front of us. We know it’s difficult going into a hostile place on Saturday. But I’m excited for what’s ahead for our group.”
Horford is one of two current Celtics who were on the Isaiah Thomas-led 2016-17 team that rallied past Chicago. Jaylen Brown is the other, though he was a rookie at the time and played sparingly in the series. Since then, Boston has fallen behind 0-2 in four playoff rounds (two as the higher seed) and lost all four.
The Celtics won Game 3 in three of those, however, and have plenty of reasons to be optimistic heading into Saturday’s showdown at MSG. They were one of the best road teams in NBA history this season (33-8, including two wins in New York), have not lost three straight games in nearly two years and played, at least on the offensive end, about as poorly as they’re capable of playing in Games 1 and 2.
They posted their two worst team-wide field-goal percentages of the season and shot 25-for-100 from 3-point range. Superstars Jayson Tatum and Brown both struggled, and Kristaps Porzingis’ lingering illness symptoms prevented him from picking up the slack. Despite all of that, the two games were decided by a total of four points, with Game 1 needing overtime. Had just a few more of those threes — 75 of which were open or wide open, per NBA player tracking — fallen, Boston likely would be up 2-0.
Most major sportsbooks still have the Celtics pegged as slight favorites to advance.
“We have a way that we play,” said Tatum, who scored just 13 points in Game 2 and was unable to get a shot off on the game’s final possession. “We have an identity, and it can’t waver just because we missing shots. We can’t change who we are. I always say you’ve got to be the same person when things are going well and when things aren’t going well.
“And it’s not about our season being two games from over. Like, that hasn’t crossed any of our minds. We’ve got a game on Saturday at 3:30 that should be a lot of fun. If you’re a competitor, you should really look forward to that moment. We put ourselves in this position, and we’ve got a game on Saturday that we’re all looking forward to.”
Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla shared both of those attitudes — that his team’s issues have stemmed more from poor execution than misguided philosophy, and that Game 3 is a stage worth embracing.
“You just can’t have an expectation that it’s supposed to go the way that you want all the time,” Mazzulla said. “And I think there’s actually a sense of you could be very prideful in thinking of like, ‘Oh, who are we that we’re not allowed to be down 0-2?’ And so I think you have to eliminate that pride and have an understanding of, this is the way that it is. At the same time, people don’t become who they say they want to become unless they transition these moments into greater moments. And that may not be this year, it could be just in life itself, but you can’t just have a pride and entitlement that we’re holier than thou, that we’re not allowed to be down 0-2.
“This is the situation that we’re in, so we have to have an understanding of why we’re in it, and we’ve got to fix it. And we have an opportunity to fix that. So yeah, I do relish that, because these moments are all forgotten if you transition them into taking advantage of the opportunity that you have.”
Mazzulla’s group is vying to beome the NBA’s first repeat champion since 2018 and the first Celtics team to win back-to-back titles since 1969. The last five defending champs all bowed out before the conference finals — a streak Boston is in danger of extending.
“We have to go into Saturday’s game and win the game,” Mazzulla said. “That’s just the way it is. We have to win. We have to win, we have to do what it takes to win and we have to put ourselves in a position to do that. And it is going to be a tall task, but we’re ready for it, and there’s no better people I’d rather do it with than the guys in the locker room and our staff.”