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Boston Herald
Boston Herald
3 Sep 2023
Tribune News Service


NextImg:The Orioles’ trade of Jorge López last year was controversial. It ended up being a steal. | ANALYSIS

The Orioles’ decision to trade Jorge López at last year’s deadline was heavily criticized.

In shipping off López to the Minnesota Twins and Trey Mancini to the Houston Astros, Baltimore was parting ways with two of its most important players — an All-Star closer and a team leader, respectively — in the middle of a wild-card race.

Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias knew as much, and he flew to Texas to talk with the team about the moves that were seen to hurt the club’s chances of making the postseason. He then told reporters that those rebuild-focused moves, in which the club acquired prospects for established big leaguers, would be the last of that kind, stating it would be “liftoff from here.”

“At times, there are opportunities that feel like a step back,” he said. “But in the big picture, it’s a step forward for the entire organization.”

The Orioles claimed López off waivers from the Miami Marlins on Saturday, bringing the much-debated trade full circle. López, who has struggled since being traded, will soon join a bullpen now headlined by Yennier Cano, one of four pitchers Baltimore received from the Twins for López. The other three are in the minor leagues, two of whom are rated by Baseball America as top 30 prospects in Baltimore’s system.

The move Saturday serves as a reminder that Elias ended up being right 13 months ago. That step back has, in fact, led to a larger step forward, and it has, despite the lack of investment in payroll this offseason, been liftoff from there, with the Orioles atop the American League standings with one month remaining.

The unimpeachable success of the López trade doesn’t mean, however, that it didn’t still hurt the club’s playoff chances last season. The Orioles were 1 1/2 games back of a wild-card spot on deadline day last August, and it’s unknown the impact López, who struggled to end the season, could’ve had down the stretch compared with his replacements. The Orioles missed the postseason by three games.

The steal that was the López trade also doesn’t mean Elias’ recent resume is unimpeachable.

The Orioles gave more millions of dollars (five) to reliever Mychal Givens than big league innings he pitched for them before his release (four). Cole Irvin hasn’t been the steady rotation arm Baltimore envisioned when giving up infield prospect Darell Hernaiz, who is hitting .330 in the minors, to the Oakland Athletics for him in January. And Jack Flaherty, the club’s only major acquisition at this year’s deadline, has a 6.41 ERA in four starts since joining the organization that gave up three of its top 20 prospects for him.

But none of that — neither the impact on last year’s playoff chase nor other moves that haven’t paid off — changes the fact that Elias fleeced the Twins in the López deal, and the Orioles, in 2023 and beyond, are better for it.

With that said, it’s far from a guarantee that López will bolster the bullpen down the stretch or in the future. He’s not eligible to pitch in the postseason because he wasn’t in the organization before Sept. 1, and he hasn’t pitched well since he last donned an Orioles uniform. He recorded a 4.37 ERA down the stretch with Minnesota last year, a 5.09 ERA with the Twins in the first half this year and a 9.26 mark with the Marlins after they acquired him in July. Not including his sparkling 48 1/3 innings with the Orioles last season in which he posted a 1.68 ERA, López’s career ERA is 5.96.

But it doesn’t really matter how López pitches moving forward as it pertains to judging the trade in hindsight. It’s been clear the deal has been a massive victory for Baltimore since Cano emerged as one of the sport’s best relief pitchers.

The right-hander was considered a minor part of the trade at the time, but he made mental and mechanical adjustments since joining the organization to earn an All-Star nomination. With a 1.56 ERA and 0.963 WHIP in 63 1/3 innings, Cano’s 1.7 wins above replacement on FanGraphs is tied for fourth among MLB relievers. He could also be the team’s closer during the stretch run — or potentially much longer — with closer Félix Bautista on the injured list with an unspecified injury to the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow, a tear of which would likely necessitate Tommy John elbow reconstruction.

But Cano wasn’t considered the biggest piece the Orioles got back. That was Cade Povich, a left-handed pitching prospect now ranked as the club’s best arm still in the minor leagues. Baseball America ranks Povich as the organization’s 10th-best prospect. The only pitcher ahead of him on the list is left-hander DL Hall, who joined the Orioles’ bullpen last weekend.

The only pitcher in the organization with more strikeouts than Povich’s 142 in 105 innings is Grayson Rodriguez, the club’s top pitching prospect entering the season who has 153 punchouts in 134 1/3 innings between Triple-A Norfolk and Baltimore. Povich largely dominated Double-A hitters, striking out 33.4% of them to earn a promotion to Norfolk in July. But after posting a 4.87 ERA with Bowie, the 23-year-old has a 7.61 ERA through his first six starts with the Tides.

The Orioles also received pitching prospects Juan Nuñez and Juan Rojas in the deal. Nuñez, who has a 4.23 ERA with 117 strikeouts in 95 2/3 innings between Low- and High-A, has risen in the Orioles’ system up to No. 25, according to Baseball America, after entering the year outside the top 30. Rojas, meanwhile, has a 6.38 ERA in Low-A Delmarva at just 19 years old.

But the value the three farmhands provide remains to be seen. For now, Cano is the embodiment of the controversial trade’s success.

Cano alone has made the López deal a smart one. López’s return to the Orioles just makes it obvious it was.

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