The long-held belief here is that the Bruins’ most admirable quality is what makes them so hard to predict when it comes to the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Over the past 50 years, local hockey fans have been treated to some great hockey in the regular season that has been spurred by a nightly work ethic that is usually second-to-none. And the Bruins have raised exactly one Cup in those years. Teams that maybe didn’t show up for that Tuesday night tilt in January were able to marshal their skill and get that one extra goal in a playoff series that the B’s, try as they might, just couldn’t muster.
This year feels different.
This year, the Bruins are as talented as anyone, and more so than most. They have a goalie who should be a slam-dunk Vezina Trophy winner. They have the ability to throw out a No. 1 defenseman on all three pairs or load up the top four. They have the Rocket Richard Trophy runner-up and nine players who’ve produced 45 points or more.
Now they throw all that firepower against a team in the Florida Panthers who thought they were the ones building something special a year ago. The Panthers won 58 games last year, not quite the record breaking 65 of this year’s Bruins, but still one better than the 1970-71 Bruins. The big trade they made to obtain MatthewTkachuk was made for the playoffs. They almost didn’t make it, but they finally got in on the last week of the season.
The Panthers’ reward is they get to play the Bruins. On the one hand, they can take the ol’ “we’ve-got-nothing-to-lose” approach. On the other hand, it would be another year the Panthers had a good team and then exited early again.
We’re taking the latter.
Here’s how the teams match up:
Brad Marchand-Patrice Bergeron-Jake DeBrusk
Pavel Zacha-David Krejci-David Pastrnak
Taylor Hall-Charlie Coyle-Tyler Bertuzzi
Nick Foligno-Tomas Nosek-Garnet Hathaway
Carter Verhaege-Sasha Barkov-Sam Reinhart
Eetu Luostarinen-Anton Lundell-Matthew Tkachuk
Ryan Lomberg-Eric Staal—Anthony Duclair
Nick Cousins-Colin White-Givani Smith
The Skinny: Tkachuk is the maestro for the Panthers, but the agitator extraordinaire is not a one-man band. Barkov was the Selke Award winner two years ago and pulling back his draws at 54 percent. Verhaege, once a player who bounced between the AHL and ECHL, posted a 42-goal season while Sam Reinhart, though a minus-12, has pumped in 31 goals. The Cats are a dangerous team off the rush that finished sixth in scoring (3.51 goals per game). There’s a chance they could get top nine forward Sam Bennett, currently injured, back at some point in the series.
The B’s forward group is up in the air, because we have not seen a fully healthy lineup in practice. But this our best guess if Bergeron is able to play. The B’s (3.67 goals per game) are second in the league in offense. Pastrnak had a career year – to date, anyway. There is a big drop-off after his 61 goals and 113 points. Brad Marchand is second in scoring with 67 points. But the depth has been impressive. They’ve got seven forwards who have notched 45 points or more. The B’s centermen do a better job of controlling the puck, especially Bergeron and Nosek. As a team, they win 54.5 percent of their faceoffs, second to only Dallas (54.8%). As good as Barkov is, Florida is 22nd in the league as a team in faceoff percentage (48.9%). Bergeron’s health, after he’s now missed both practice days over the weekend, is a legitimate concern. But taking nothing away from the captain’s importance, the B’s depth is such that they could could even miss him for a game or two and survive, though the possession game would take a hit.
The Edge: Bruins.
Dmitry Orlov-Charlie McAvoy
Hampus Lindholm-Brandon Carlo
Derek Forbort-Connor Clifton
Gustav Forsling-Aaron Ekblad
Marc Staal-Brandon Montour
Josh Mahura-Radko Gudas
The Skinny: Montour has had a breakout season. Always a serviceable puck-moving defenseman, Montour’s previous career best was 37 points last year. This season, the 29-year-old Montour is third on the Panthers with 16-57-73 totals. Ekblad, the first overall pick in 2014, has not enjoyed a great season (minus-14) and even had to endure pro golfer Brooks Koepka mocking him with a traffic cone, presumably a feeling-no-pain gesture that went viral nonetheless. But he’s capable of being much better. With Gudas, B’s forwards will need to keep their heads up. Defending, however, has not been a strong suit for the Panthers. Their 3.32 goals against average is 21st in the league and worst among playoff teams. It’s not all on the D, but they share in that number.
The B’s, meanwhile, have their own Big Three in McAvoy, Lindholm and Orlov. They could spread them out and have one of them on each pair, but it looks like they’re going to load up the top four, which also includes Brandon Carlo, enjoying his best season as a pro. Whomever they decide to sit out – Forbort or Matt Grzelcyk – would undoubtedly be playing for just about any other playoff team.
The Edge: Bruins
Linus Ullmark
Jeremy Swayman
Alex Lyon
Sergei Bobrovsky
The Skinny: Give Alex Lyon credit. The 30-year-old journeyman, who has 39 NHL games on his resume, played very well down the stretch, posting a 2.82 GAA and .914 save percentage. He went 6-1-1 with a .943 save percentage and 1.87 GAA in the playoff push. Without that performance, the Panthers may not have made the post-season. Whether he gets it or not, he’s earned the Game 1 start. Meanwhile, Bobrovsky can be very good – when he sets his mind to it. But with a .901 save percentage, he’s barely over the goalie’s Mendoza line this year.
Meanwhile, the B’s goalie tandem has been historically good. Ullmark’s .938 save percentage tied the last Bruin goalie to raise the Cup, Tim Thomas. And Ullmark and Swayman are the first duo to win 40 and 20 games, respectively.
Moreover, those who don’t watch the Bruins regularly tend to look at the B’s league-leading GAA of 2.12 and assume its because of the defense-first systems made famous under Claude Julien and Bruce Cassidy. But with the way the D-men get involved now, the B’s give up more odd-man rushes than they used to. Both Ullmark and Swayman have been there to shut the door all season.
The Edge: Bruins.
The Skinny: The B’s have shown some signs in the last two weeks that they might be breaking out of their second-half swoon on the power play, but their 0-for-5 showing in the regular season finale has kicked up some concerns again. Still, their 22.2% success rate (12th) is not far behind the Panthers’ 22.8% (9th).
The gap on the penalty kill is cavernous, however. The B’s have had the best PK in the league almost from the get-go, with a kill rate of 87.3%. Even when team leader in PK minutes, Forbort, went out of the lineup on March 16, the B’s kill never wavered. The Panthers, meanwhile, are in the bottom third of the league at 76%.
The B’s are also plus-6 at 4-on-4 (10-4) while the Panthers are plus-1 (3-2).
The Edge: Bruins.
Jim Montgomery
Paul Maurice
The 56-year-old Maurice has been at this so long, he began his coaching career with the Hartford Whalers. In two stops with Hartford/Carolina, a two-year stint with the Toronto Maple Leafs and eight-plus year run with the Winnipeg Jets, he’s missed the playoffs 13 times. It looked like he was headed for No. 14 until he lit into his lethargic team during a timeout in Toronto on March 29. The Panthers came back to beat the Leafs, then won their next five games to get into the playoffs. He has one trip to the Finals with Carolina.
While Montgomery doesn’t have the lengthy NHL resume that Maurice possesses, the positive vibe that he brought to the B’s dressing room has turned a good team into a great one. But Montgomery has brought more than just pats on the back. His aggressive system has coaxed not one but two 50-point season from defensemen (Lindholm and McAvoy).
The Edge: Bruins.
The Panthers have the benefit of being clear underdogs and, if they somehow get a foothold in this series, you can bet that most hockey fans outside of New England will be pulling for them. That can be a burden for the favorite.
The Edge: Panthers.
The Pick: Bruins in six. The first round is always the toughest.