Buy or sell?
It’s the question every Major League Baseball team faces each summer. As the season progresses and chances of going to the playoffs improve or evaporate, each team is faced with a choice: go all in, or accept fate and focus on the future.
Last summer, the Red Sox decided to do both. Despite looking like a team that should and would sell, they did the Hokey Pokey, one foot in, one foot out. A 53-52, last-place team, they traded away Christian Vázquez and Jake Diekman, but also acquired Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham.
By season’s end, the result was about the same as the deadline decisions: confusing, disappointing and costly.
In hindsight, and even at the time, it was surprising that soon-to-be free agents Nathan Eovaldi and J.D. Martinez outlasted the deadline. Keeping them for the remainder of a season that was going nowhere not only ensured that the Red Sox would end up paying the luxury tax for a last-place finish, but that they’d be left with nothing when Martinez and Eovaldi became free agents at the end of the year. If this year’s campaign continues down the current path, the Red Sox shouldn’t make the same choice.
They’re in a different position this season, worse in some ways, better in others. On June 16, 2022, they were 34-30, fourth place in the division. This year, they’re at the bottom of the division and own a losing record, 34-35.
It’s a small comfort to know that unlike last year, the Red Sox are well under the luxury tax threshold. Unless they decide to be buyers at the deadline and make some outrageous trades, they’ll reset the tax after paying the penalty last year.
Of course, one of the richest ownership groups in all of professional sports should never be celebrated for pinching pennies.
In their current state, the Red Sox look like sellers. Chris Sale is out until at least the beginning of August, and Trevor Story is hoping to be able to play shortstop by that month. Without Story and Xander Bogaerts, their middle infield is weak, and the team’s defensive as a whole is indefensible; they lead the American League with 49 errors, second only in the Majors to the San Francisco Giants.
Is this a team that should go all out by the deadline just to try to topple the division? Is it prudent to make a trade for infield reinforcements in their current state when the top two levels of their own farm system are already ripe with near-ready talent?
Sometimes, it just isn’t the year. And for the franchise with the most championships this century (and more than many teams in their entire franchise history), there should be no shame in accepting that. The Red Sox have the makings of a legitimate contender in the next year or two, even if fans think they should be winning now and always. Better to get ahead for next year than struggle in the quicksand and drag themselves down even further.
While this may not be a collectively successful club, several players are putting together strong seasons and are therefore sure to draw interest from teams looking to level up. If they can’t win here, they can help the Red Sox and themselves in trades.
After missing all of 2022 due to a combination of Tommy John surgery recovering and a lat tear, and missing the first month and a half of the ongoing campaign, James Paxton is finally mounting a comeback. Over six starts, the 34-year-old left-hander has compiled a 3.09 ERA and 1.156 WHIP, with 44 strikeouts (93rd percentile K%) and just 11 earned runs across 32 innings. Aside from one rough outing at the end of May, he’s pitched at least five innings and allowed no more than two earned runs in each of his games.
Kiké Hernández’s defensive struggles at shortstop (minus-9 Outs Above Average, league-leading 14 errors) won’t make him an appealing target to teams seeking infield help, but the utilityman should draw interest for his outfield skill. Strong centerfielders are hard to come by, and Hernández thrives at the position; it’s especially impressive given Fenway Park’s tricky dimensions. As Boston’s primary centerfielder in 2021 and 2022, he ranked in the 93rd and 85th MLB percentile in OAA, respectively.
Hernández also offers ample postseason experience: 69 career games, including three World Series runs. His five home runs over the ‘21 playoffs tied David Ortiz for most home runs by a Red Sox player in a postseason. He’s playing on a one-year, $10 million contract extension, making him a very affordable deadline addition for postseason hopefuls.
Before going on the injured list with a wrist fracture in mid-April, Adam Duvall was Boston’s hottest hitter. Over his first eight games of the season, he collected 15 hits, including four homers, five doubles, and a triple, scored 11 times, and drove in 14 runs. He’s struggled in his first week back in the lineup, but with his previous Gold Glove and World Series experience and an affordable one-year contract, he’s definitely on teams’ radars.
As one of the era’s preeminent closers, Kenley Jansen will have no shortage of suitors. And unlike the aforementioned trade candidates, all of whom will be free agents at the end of this year, Jansen is signed through next season, so he could yield a greater return. At 35, the righty isn’t slowing down; in fact, he’s actually been throwing harder. His slider is averaging 84.3 (81.2 mph in 2022), his sinker is at 95.5 mph (93.6), and his cutter is hurtling across the plate at 94.3 (92.2).
Over 24 appearances, Jansen owns a 3.18 ERA and 26 strikeouts over 22 2/3 innings. He ranks in the 90th MLB percentile or better in most pitching metrics, including Hard Hit Rate (91), Expected Batting Average (90), Barrel Rate (94), and Fastball Spin (98). He’s finished 19 games and converted 14 saves (in 17 opportunities), including the 400th of his career. If the Red Sox sell, Jansen and his many years of dominance will go like hotcakes.
On paper, the 2023 Red Sox should be a better team than they’ve been lately. And there’s still time for them to turn things around, but not much.
If they look the same (or worse) at the All-Star break, they should look very different after the deadline.