In 1519 the Spanish conquistador Hernán Cortés arrived in central America, and legend has it that upon making landfall he ordered his men to burn their ships.
The message to his troops was simple. There’s no going back. Their only choice now — fight or die.
Through its inaction this offseason Red Sox ownership has opted for a similar approach. In the face of widespread fan anger and industry-wide bewilderment the club has chosen to press on without reinforcements into what should remain an incredibly hostile AL East. Ownership has effectively challenged the returning players to step up or face the consequences, apparently unconcerned about the self-inflicted damage that may be sustained along the way.
If 2010 was infamously the club’s bridge year, then 2024 could go down as its burned bridge year.
Maybe some late help could still be coming. Maybe a ship carrying Jordan Montgomery or some other impact player could appear over the horizon just before Opening Day. There have been rumors in recent days of possible trades involving Kenley Jansen and Jarren Duran, but with pitchers and catchers set to report on Wednesday, this is who the Red Sox are — at least for now.
They’re going to have to make it work, one way or the other.
That being the case, there are still important questions that need to be settled over the next two months in Fort Myers. Who will comprise the starting rotation? Who among the club’s bevy of depth arms will ultimately land a spot in the big league bullpen? How might the club’s outfield and bench shake out? Here’s our first crack at projecting Boston’s eventual 26-man roster, with the obvious caveat that things could change dramatically if the Red Sox do ultimately make some late moves in the coming weeks.
Connor Wong, Reese McGuire
The Red Sox have gone to great lengths to improve their catching depth in the upper minors, but at the big league level fans shouldn’t notice anything too different from last year. Connor Wong should remain the top option behind the plate after a solid first full season as a starter, and Reese McGuire projects as the primary backup and as the left-handed hitting alternative should the matchup call for it.
There’s no reason to expect Boston to carry a third catcher on the active roster, but if Wong or McGuire get hurt at any point the first man up would be Tyler Heineman, who was recently acquired from the New York Mets and is on the 40-man roster. He should primarily play at Triple-A, and the Red Sox also brought in fellow veterans Roberto Pérez and Mark Kolozsvary on minor league deals. That group should be much more reliable than Jorge Alfaro, Ronaldo Hernandez and Caleb Hamilton, all of whom are now with different organizations, though ideally none will see significant time in Boston.
Fans may wonder if there’s any chance top prospect Kyle Teel could factor into the equation, and to that I’d say don’t get your hopes up. Teel was only drafted last July and has just 26 professional games under his belt, including nine at Double-A. He’ll start the season in Portland and could conceivably move up to Triple-A by the summer, but it’s unlikely he’ll be a factor in the majors this year, especially not out of spring training.
Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, Vaughn Grissom, Triston Casas, Pablo Reyes, Bobby Dalbec
The starting infield is effectively set in stone. Rafael Devers will play third base, Trevor Story will play shortstop, Vaughn Grissom will play second and Triston Casas will play first. Devers, Story and Casas are arguably Boston’s three best position players and the club will be counting on them to lead the way, and Grissom will be a fascinating wild card getting his first real shot at consistent playing time in the majors.
Still only 23 years old, Grissom posted monster numbers in Triple-A last year and has shown he can compete in the limited opportunities he had in Atlanta. If he proves himself to be a reliable starter — or better yet, a real impact player — it would have huge ramifications for both the club’s short- and long-term future.
How the bench shakes out is less important than how the projected starters perform, but these will be some of the more hotly contested spots up for grabs. Utility men Pablo Reyes and Romy Gonzalez should be the favorites for the main infield reserve spot, they’re both more versatile than prospects Enmanuel Valdez and David Hamilton, and while Gonzalez has more recent outfield experience Reyes acquitted himself nicely at Fenway Park last season.
And Bobby Dalbec? While his departure has seemed inevitable for nearly two years now, the Red Sox don’t really have any other right-handed hitting corner infielders who can adequately back up Devers and Casas. Unless that changes he’ll have a better chance of making the team than most fans probably realize.
Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Tyler O’Neill, Rob Refsnyder
All five of these guys should see regular playing time, but where and how much remains an open question. With Justin Turner gone the expectation is Masataka Yoshida will move into more of an everyday designated hitter role, allowing the two-time Gold Glove winner Tyler O’Neill to start in left field. Jarren Duran should solidify his place as the starting center fielder — assuming he isn’t traded — and rookie Wilyer Abreu has a wide open lane to lock down the starting right field job.
Rob Refsnyder, obviously, will retain his spot as a lefty-killer off the bench.
The real question here is whether this remains the group. The Red Sox could conceivably still add another bat, and as of this writing Adam Duvall remains unsigned. If the club were to bring him back or acquire another right-handed hitter like him it would go a long way towards improving the lineup, but it would also muddy the picture here in the outfield and possibly force some tough decisions.
The other big question in the outfield, and arguably for the team as a whole, is how Ceddanne Rafaela factors into the equation. Rafaela is a versatile defender who can play both center field and shortstop at a high level and he’s a potentially game-breaking force on the basepaths. He is also eligible for Prospect Promotion Incentive rewards, so if the Red Sox put him on the Opening Day roster and he wound up spending 172 days in the majors and contended for a major award, Boston could be in line to earn a high draft pick.
Even with all of that being the case, Rafaela’s offensive approach still needs work and he might benefit more from regular playing time at Triple-A than as a utility man getting inconsistent at-bats off the bench in the majors.
Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock
When last season ended the widespread expectation was the Red Sox would add multiple starting pitchers to bolster their rotation. They did sign one, adding right-hander Lucas Giolito, but then also traded away Chris Sale in exchange for Vaughn Grissom. That effectively leaves Boston back where it started, relying on a young and unproven group who weren’t able to consistently get the job done in 2023.
That being said, there is some reason for optimism.
Outside of his bizarre tendency to struggle in day games, Brayan Bello enjoyed a terrific first full season in the majors and should be well positioned to take another step forward. Giolito had a chaotic and ugly second half last year, but he’s been a consistent workhorse throughout his career and got off to a strong start last year before things went off the rails.
Nick Pivetta has been inconsistent throughout his Red Sox career but emerged as one of the most dominant arms in baseball down the stretch. He was one of only five pitchers in MLB who recorded more than 100 strikeouts in the second half — despite half of his outings coming in relief — and he is also entering a contract year. Kutter Crawford quietly emerged as one of Boston’s most reliable starters, and with a full offseason to prepare for the role he should be better equipped to pitch deep into games.
Those four all have upside, and the club obviously hopes that new pitching coach Andrew Bailey can help them each reach their full potential. The same is true for Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck, both young and talented arms who should be the prime contenders for the last rotation spot. Picking between the two is basically a toss up, so for our purposes we’ll go with Whitlock, who the Red Sox are heavily invested in seeing succeed as a starter and should get one more chance to prove he can do the job.
Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, John Schreiber, Brennan Bernardino, Tanner Houck, Josh Winckowski, Cooper Criswell, Justin Slaten
There has been a lot of noise lately that the Red Sox may attempt to trade Kenley Jansen, the logic being that paying a closer $16 million isn’t the best use of resources for a potential last-place team and that the money freed up could be used to address other needs.
The idea that the Red Sox need to shed more payroll when they’re already more than $35 million under the first luxury tax threshold is pretty pathetic, but that seems to be the reality of where the team is right now.
If Jansen goes then things obviously become much more uncertain, but as long as he’s here the bullpen actually looks mostly set. Jansen would be the closer, Chris Martin the top set-up man, Brennan Bernardino the top lefty and John Schreiber, Josh Winckowski and whichever of Whitlock and Houck isn’t in the rotation the main high-leverage arms.
Rookie Justin Slaten should earn a spot as well. As a Rule 5 pick he must spend the season on the active roster or be offered back to the Texas Rangers. Considering that the Red Sox immediately traded for him after the Mets selected him in the Rule 5 Draft, and considering his eye-popping strikeout numbers and overpowering stuff, he’ll likely get every opportunity to prove himself.
That leaves a whole bunch of arms battling for the last spot.
Cooper Criswell is one of only two big league free agents the Red Sox have signed and he’s ostensibly set to compete for a rotation spot along with Whitlock, Houck and Winckowski. Isaiah Campbell and Greg Weissert both have solid track records in the big leagues already and were brought in this winter as part of offseason trades. Zack Kelly made the team out of camp last year and fought his way back after missing most of the season due to elbow surgery. Lefties Chris Murphy, Brandon Walter and Joe Jacques all saw action last season, with Murphy in particular enjoying an excellent two-month run following his debut.
Regardless of who makes the team out of camp, all of those guys should play a role this season, even if they find themselves bouncing up and down from Triple-A depending on the club’s needs any given day.
One person who can’t say the same is Bryan Mata.
Formerly Boston’s top pitching prospect, Mata is coming off a dreadful 2023 season marked by injury and inconsistency and is now out of minor league options. He must make the big league roster out of camp or be placed on waivers, which would most likely lead to his being lost to another club.
After failing to pan out as a starter Mata is being moved to the bullpen, where the club hopes his overpowering stuff could potentially play better. Mata is undeniably talented and could become a real weapon if he’s able to put it all together — and maybe he will once he starts working with Bailey and director of pitching Justin Willard. But make no mistake, Mata is pitching for his Red Sox career this spring and if he can’t prove he belongs then his time with the organization will likely reach its end.