The Red Sox have taken some big hits, but here at the All-Star break the club is still in the hunt.
After finishing the first half with eight wins in its last nine games, Boston now find itself just two games out of the playoffs and only one game back of the struggling New York Yankees. Despite having nearly its entire starting rotation and middle infield corps wiped out for large stretches of the season, the Red Sox have found a way to stay afloat.
So who’s carried their weight, and where do the Red Sox need to see improvement down the stretch? Here is a position-by-position look at how the Red Sox have performed through the first half.
Going into the season with Connor Wong and Reese McGuire as the full-time catching tandem was risky, but so far the duo has more than gotten the job done.
Wong has broken out as one of the best everyday catchers in the big leagues. He currently ranks sixth in MLB in wins above replacement (1.9), only a fraction behind Baltimore Orioles All-Star Adley Rutschman (2.1). Though his offense has come and gone, he’s shown at times he’s capable of crushing the ball to left field, and defensively he’s been outstanding, with his seven defensive runs saved mark ranking third among MLB catchers.
McGuire has taken a step back from his impressive second half last year, but he’s still been more or less fine as a backup. The trouble for Boston is they have virtually no depth at the position, so when McGuire went down recently with a right oblique strain the club had no good options to replace him.
Jorge Alfaro, who competed for the job in spring training and later exercised his opt-out after spending the first few months in Triple-A, was brought back to help shore things up. He can hit, but his skills behind the plate leave a lot to be desired, so the club better cross its fingers that nothing happens to Wong. He might be among the most irreplaceable players in the entire organization right now.
What a mess.
If you’re looking for the biggest reason why the Red Sox are currently in last place and two games out in the AL Wild Card race — as opposed to, say, comfortably in the playoff field — their middle infield situation is a great place to start. Thanks in large part to a devastating series of injuries the club has gotten sub-replacement level performance at both shortstop and second base, and for long stretches the club has been forced to rely on rookies who were not ready for prime time.
Trevor Story’s offseason elbow surgery was a massive blow, and Yu Chang’s broken hamate in late April wound up being hugely impactful as well. Without them, and with Adalberto Mondesi’s ACL rehab stalling, the Red Sox installed Kiké Hernández as their starting shortstop, which didn’t work out. Between him, journeyman Pablo Reyes and rookie David Hamilton, the shortstop position has been a black hole for pretty much the entire season.
Second base hasn’t been much better, and while Christian Arroyo was out for a month with a right hamstring strain the Red Sox relied on rookie Enmanuel Valdez, who held his own at the plate but who was an adventure defensively.
The good news is help is finally on the way. Chang returned to the field this past week and should stabilize the position until Story is ready to return sometime in August. Arroyo is also heating up at the plate, batting .429 in July, and Hernández is better suited defensively at second than at shortstop.
Barring any additional setbacks the Red Sox should be in much better shape for the second half, but it’s hard to imagine things could have gone any worse for this group over the first few months.
Fresh off signing the largest contract in Red Sox history, Rafael Devers is enjoying another standout year and is currently on pace to finish with 35 home runs and 124 RBI. His batting average and on-base percentage have both been creeping up after a slow start in those areas as well, and defensively he has continued to improve. He may never be a Gold Glove contender, but he’s been fine.
Even if Devers wasn’t named an All-Star, he’s gotten the job done.
The Red Sox have also gotten marked improvement from first base relative to 2022, though that isn’t saying much. Last year’s combination of Bobby Dalbec, Franchy Cordero and others was among the least productive in baseball, and while rookie Triston Casas got off to a really tough start, he’s steadily shown improvement at the plate.
Since June 1 Casas has been batting .269 with an .813 OPS, and overall he ranks fourth on the team with nine home runs. Defensively Casas has endured some struggles, and he still has a -0.3 wins above replacement mark for the season, but he’s shown enough lately to believe he’s turned a corner.
Justin Turner has also proven himself an impactful signing in free agency, and not just as a respected clubhouse leader. As the everyday designated hitter Turner has been a prolific all-around contributor, batting .288 with an .824 OPS, 13 home runs and 52 RBI. He’s also opened up numerous lineup possibilities with his ability to man the fort at first base, theoretically give Devers a breather at third base (which hasn’t happened often), and potentially even sub in at second, something Alex Cora has said could start happening soon.
One of the season’s more underrated developments is the outfield’s turnaround. Last year the Red Sox outfielders were collectively among the least productive in the majors. Now they’re among the best, and that’s in large part thanks to the development of two players from last year’s group.
You can’t say enough about the progress that Alex Verdugo and Jarren Duran have made. Verdugo, whose career in Boston prior to this year could best be summed up as “good, not great,” has been among the best all-around outfielders in the American League and is arguably the league’s biggest All-Star snub.
Duran’s emergence has been even more impressive. The speedy outfielder struggled and was demoted after each of his first two big league call-ups the past two seasons, but this year he’s enjoyed sustained success as a doubles machine and as someone who can reliably get on base and wreak havoc once he’s there.
More importantly, he fought his way through the inevitable midseason slump and came out the other side better than ever.
Beyond those two, new addition Masataka Yoshida has been everything the Red Sox hoped he could be. The Japanese standout has successfully transitioned to the big league game and has emerged as one of the top contenders for the AL batting title as a rookie. Adam Duvall got off to a hot start before his season was derailed by a broken wrist, and Rob Refsnyder has been fantastic as a lefty-killer off the bench.
Considering all of the injuries and upheaval the Red Sox rotation has endured, Boston’s starting pitching has actually been pretty good.
Brayan Bello and James Paxton have been outstanding since making their season debuts, with Bello in particular emerging as a legitimate ace in his first full season in the big leagues. Chris Sale was also getting back to his old form before going down in June with a stress reaction in his shoulder blade, and Tanner Houck was on an upward trajectory before being hit in the face by a line drive last month.
It definitely hasn’t all been smooth sailing. Nick Pivetta and Corey Kluber were both pulled from the rotation due to poor performance, and Garrett Whitlock has endured a roller coaster season and is now on the injured list for the third time. The Red Sox are currently down to just three healthy starters, with Kutter Crawford joining Bello and Paxton, and on the other days the club is doing its best to piece things together with a series of openers and bullpen days.
So far it’s working, and the Red Sox starters still collectively rank seventh in wins above average across all of MLB. But the current state of affairs isn’t sustainable, and if Boston hopes to stay in the hunt it will need to either start getting healthier, bring in reinforcements at the trade deadline, or both.
What a difference a year makes.
Last year Boston’s bullpen was its Achilles heel, and the Red Sox seemingly couldn’t defend a close lead late if their lives depended on it. That hasn’t been the case this year, and outside of one bad weekend against St. Louis the one-two punch of Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin have been lights out.
The bullpen has absorbed a lot of injuries too, but the Red Sox have made it work even with a revolving door of lower leverage relievers. Pivetta has been excellent since moving to the bullpen, waiver pickup Brennan Berandino has proven himself a steal, and outside of a recent slump Josh Winckowski has broken out as a late-inning weapon as well.
Getting John Schreiber back later this month will be huge as well, and if lefties Joely Rodriguez and Richard Bleier can get back to form then Boston could make a case for having the best bullpen from top to bottom in the big leagues.
Alex Verdugo, OF: Challenged by his manager to take the next step in his career, Verdugo has responded by elevating himself into a prolific leadoff hitter capable of impacting the game at all three levels. Offensively he’s batting .290 with 26 doubles and an .817 OPS, and defensively he ranks fifth in baseball with 12 defensive runs saved. He’s taken huge strides as a base runner as well, and all told Verdugo has become one of the Red Sox most valuable all-around players.
Jarren Duran, OF: Duran has always boasted game-breaking speed, but now he’s developed enough in every other area that he’s truly become a threat. He leads all AL outfielders with 27 doubles, and a sizable number of those probably would have been singles for anyone else in baseball. He’s 17 for 18 in stolen base attempts, and with 251 plate appearances to his name he’s batting .320 with an .886 OPS. That’s too big a sample to be dismissed as a fluke, Duran is turning into a star right before our eyes.
Brayan Bello, RHP: With each passing start it seems like Bello takes his game to another level, and now he’s emerged not just one of the best young pitchers in the sport, but one of the best, period. Through 14 starts Bello has a 3.04 ERA for the season and since the start of June he’s tossed six consecutive quality starts, posting a 2.21 ERA while holding opposing batters to just a .195 average. Given the state of the rest of the rotation, you can’t overstate the importance of Bello’s emergence for the Red Sox.
Kiké Hernández, INF/OF: Handed the opportunity to serve as Boston’s starting shortstop following Trevor Story’s elbow surgery, Hernández didn’t get the job done. Hernández recorded an MLB-worst 14 errors, 12 of them on poor throws, and eventually lost his starting job to minor league journeyman Pablo Reyes and rookie David Hamilton. Hernández’s performance at the plate hasn’t been any better (.221 average, .602 OPS), and given Boston’s current roster makeup it’s possible Hernández could soon get squeezed out entirely.
Corey Kluber, RHP: Signed to shore up Boston’s starting rotation and effectively replace Nathan Eovaldi, Kluber’s performance has fallen far short of expectations. The 37-year-old posted a 6.26 ERA over nine starts before being pulled from the rotation in mid-May, and things didn’t go any better once he moved to the bullpen. Kluber is currently on the injured list with right shoulder inflammation and it’s not clear what, if any, role he’ll have once he returns.
Joely Rodriguez, LHP: Boston’s first free agent signing from this past offseason, Rodriguez has spent the majority of the first half on the injured list, and the brief stretches he was available he wasn’t very effective. So far he’s allowed eight earned runs over five innings, but the good news is he was much better in his first outing back from the IL on Sunday, striking out two while stranding a pair of inherited runners for a scoreless seventh. The Red Sox will be counting on that version of Rodriguez to make an impact down the stretch.
Have any thoughts on how the Red Sox have performed so far? Disagree with any of these grades and want to give us a piece of your mind? Send us your Red Sox questions for an upcoming mailbag set to run this Sunday. Questions can be emailed to Mac Cerullo at mcerullo@bostonherald.com or via Twitter direct message at @MacCerullo.