Welcome back, football.
The Patriots open training camp Wednesday with the first of three consecutive practices starting at 9:30 a.m.
The team faces its lowest expectations locally in perhaps decades, projected to finish fourth in a loaded AFC East. During camp, the Pats will determine whether Mac Jones is primed for a bounce-back season, which rookies could make an early impact and much more. As Patriots players and coaches work through all of that, here’s what to know and how to follow the most important developments from training camp.
After the 2023 NFL Draft concluded without the Patriots taking an offensive tackle, there didn’t seem to be much of a competition to be had at the position this offseason. Left tackle Trent Brown remained on the roster, and prospective right tackle Riley Reiff signed a starting-caliber salary in free agency.
The spring provided more questions than answers, however, and clouded the situation. Brown was on the field for about 10 minutes after missing voluntary organized team activities and showing up late to minicamp. He warmed up in his only spring practice before departing to a side field. Reiff and Conor McDermott shared snaps at right tackle with Anderson filling in for Brown on the left side. Rookie Sidy Sow was relegated to scout-team reps.
It would still make the most sense for Brown and Reiff to start. But Anderson, McDermott and Sow are worth monitoring in camp and the preseason. — Kyed
The success of the Patriots offense will hinge far more on offensive tackle, but where’s the excitement in watching Riley Reiff and Calvin Anderson duke it out?
Out wide, the Patriots not only have a fresh talent infusion with JuJu Smith-Schuster, but there’s Kendrick Bourne entering a contract year and Tyquan Thornton attempting a Year 2 leap. Throw in sixth-round rookies Demario Douglas and Kayson Boutte — both legit sleeper candidates to make the final 53-man roster — and competition will be steep from the get-go. Not to mention, DeVante Parker is now entering his second season as a Patriot, while Mike Gesicki will be looking to maximize his 1-year, prove-it deal with the team as a de facto slot receiver. — Callahan
After predicting Rhamondre Stevenson’s breakout last year, I’ll stay in the backfield and pick Stevenson’s new third-down replacement.
Like most mid-round rookie running backs before him, Strong effectively took a redshirt last year on offense. On the season, the South Dakota State saw just 10 carries and churned out 100 yards (mostly while splitting snaps in injury relief with Kevin Harris). Nowadays, Strong’s the next back up in practice when Stevenson gets a breather.
Combine that clear-cut opportunity to seize a vacant third-down back job and his 4.3 speed, and Strong should be on every fan’s radar. Not only Patriots fans, but anyone playing fantasy football looking for a late-round flier. — Callahan
I guess it could be argued that Jones already broke out last season as a rookie. He scored touchdowns as a defender, receiver and punt returner while earning first-team All-Pro honors for his work as a punt returner.
He also played just 552 total snaps, which is roughly half as many as an every-down starter. Jones is already a proven playmaker, and if he can nearly double his snap total, then he could end the season as the Patriots’ best overall player. That’s the ceiling after the high standard Jones set as a rookie.
Jones primarily played at outside cornerback last season. He’s built more for the slot at 5-foot-8 and a bulked-up 188 pounds. He was listed at 175 pounds in 2022. — Kyed
Jones had one of the best statistical seasons for any rookie quarterback in NFL history in 2021. But that was when Josh McDaniels was offensive coordinator, and Jones regressed mightily under the direction of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge last season.
Patricia is gone, and Judge was nowhere near the offense during spring practices, and Bill O’Brien has taken over as offensive coordinator. Jones seemed rejuvenated by the change in leadership while speaking at organized team activities and minicamp.
There’s hope within the organization that Jones can return to form in 2023. The team braintrust could have made life easier for Jones if they had sealed the deal with free-agent wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, however. — Kyed
How Patriots plan to deploy new playmakers on offense
It seems almost impossible the greatest coach of all time could find himself on the brink of losing his job. And Belichick is not there yet -- to be clear.
But the Patriots' schedule is as unforgiving as any in the league, meaning pressure will mount quickly if the team don't start fast. And with a record of 25-26 the past three seasons, that includes Belichick.
Last season's miserable 8-9 campaign fell entirely on the head coach, starting with his decision to elevate Matt Patricia and Joe Judge into leading roles as his top offensive assistants. That led to an unprecedented statement co-authored by Robert Kraft regarding the team's new offensive coordinator search. Kraft has also noted publicly the team hasn't won a playoff game in four seasons.
It doesn't matter who you are as a coach -- those records and playoff failures are hard to swallow. If the Patriots can't crack .500 again, or end their playoff drought, it's fair to wonder Belichick will get another shot to either in 2024. -- Callahan
No question about it.
The Patriots are counting on an oft-injured, occasionally motivated Trent Brown at left tackle, and 34-year-old Riley Reiff at right tackle. A fourth-round rookie guard, Sidy Sow, who last played offensive tackle in 2018, could be thrust into the mix. Whether it's the starting-caliber talent, proven depth or collective experience, this position lacks in all the worst ways. -- Callahan
It would feel disingenuous to put any other position here in an attempt to make this more interesting. Jones could sink or swim at quarterback based on the play of his tackles. There's a non-zero possibility that Anderson or McDermott could be starting Week 1. That's not a great situation. -- Kyed
When all is said and done, cornerback and first-round pick Christian Gonzalez should be the best player drafted by the Patriots in 2023. But I'd expect him to be thrust into a Day 1 starting role as an outside cornerback matched up against big, physical, experienced and talented wide receivers. There could be some growing pains for the 21-year-old.
Mapu, however, has the opportunity to be put into more of a specialized part-time role that really shows off his best attributes. It wouldn't be surprising if Mapu comes out looking better after 2023 but that Gonzalez eventually ascends to greater heights. -- Kyed
Surprise!
Young defenders Christian Gonzalez and Marte Mapu are sensible picks here following their performances in spring practices. But no rookie has an opportunity to impact the Patriots' fortune this year like Ryland.
He was a five-year kicker in college, where he made 60% of his attempts from 50-plus yards away. Ryland should also be able to handle kickoffs, an area that killed the Pats in the second half last season. Assuming he beats out Nick Folk in training camp, Ryland will have the requisite talent and opportunity for a big season. And that's all that any great rookie needs. -- Callahan
Patriots training camp countdown No. 2: Can Christian Gonzalez start?
Last year. Montgomery started the season as the Pats' top third-down back and played just one game due to a season-ending shoulder injury. He's played running back and receiver in New England -- which should help his chances -- but Montgomery's lack of explosion and the surplus of core special teamers might also nudge him out. In some ways, Montgomery becoming expendable would be a best-case scenario for the Pats because the 30-year-old hasn't hit 200 scrimmage yards in a season since 2018, and Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris would first need prove themselves,
Until then, Montgomery reaching the chopping block in late August will be a surprise. -- Callahan
It was a bit shocking to see Guy skip mandatory minicamp for reported contractual reasons, because heading into the offseason, Guy, 33, looked more like a potential surprise cut candidate than a player due for a pay raise or extension.
The Patriots would free up over $3 million in cap space and take on just $500,000 in dead money if they released Guy. He's a valuable cog in the middle of the Patriots' defense, but players his age without flashy pressure rates as pass rushers simply don't get paid.
He also missed three games with a shoulder injury and saw his season-long snap rate drop because of it. -- Kyed
This might seem slightly far-fetched since Gesicki isn't even expected to be the Patriots' top tight end on the roster with Hunter Henry taking on a more conventional inline role. But Gesicki looked great in the spring, and he's developed chemistry on and off the field with Jones.
I also expect the Patriots to spread the ball around this season, so their leading receiver might not have more than 866 yards for the fourth straight season. Gesicki is competing for snaps at targets with Henry, JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, Tyquan Thornton in a deep but not top-heavy receiving corps. -- Kyed
At least for the summer, it's easy to see the Patriots' projected No. 3 receiver out-playing their No. 1.
As mentioned, Bourne is entering a contract year. Since last season, he's steeled himself into better playing shape and maintained his impressive chemistry with Mac Jones. After burying himself on the depth chart with a terrible training camp performance last summer -- which included a no-show before one preseason game -- the bet here is Bourne doesn't make the same mistake again and instead shines, while Smith-Schuster adjusts yet again to playing within a new offense. -- Callahan