It’s been more than a year since the Patriots made the playoffs.
It’s been close to five since they won a playoff game.
How much longer can those streaks last?
Oddsmakers are giving the Pats roughly a 30% chance to return to the postseason this January. They’re widely projected to finish fourth in the division and face the NFL’s toughest schedule, according to opponents’ projected win totals by Vegas odds. Exceeding expectations would require Mac Jones’ best season yet, maintaining an elite defense and fixing their special teams.
And yet, the Patriots just might do it. Their dynasty was forged in the fires of public doubt and long odds. Can they surprise again with a playoff run?
The Herald’s Patriots beat writers debate.
Kyed: I’ll start here: I think the AFC East is a little overrated. The Buffalo Bills will still win the division assuming nothing catastrophic happens.
Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion issues are serious, and the Miami Dolphins are one big hit away from starting Mike White or Skylar Thompson at quarterback. The New York Jets obviously should be better with their new quarterback, but Aaron Rodgers was bad last season [20th among 32 qualified QBs in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play].
Among other teams ranked above the Patriots in ESPN’s power rankings, the Bengals, Ravens and Jaguars are understandable. The Chargers keep underperforming, and in case I’m missing something with the Steelers, their quarterback is still Kenny Pickett, and their offensive coordinator is still Matt Canada.
The Patriots were no good last season. But Bill Belichick admitted a mistake and replaced Matt Patricia with Bill O’Brien and kept most of his defense intact while adding key pieces in the draft and helpful players on offense.
The offensive line just needs to get and stay healthy, and this team can sneak into the playoffs.
Callahan: Too many ifs for me.
The Patriots can both be an appreciably better team and still finish with the same record of 8-9. Or, let’s bump it up one: 9-8. That’s how tough the schedule is. Just run down their first four opponents: versus Philadelphia, versus Miami, at the N.Y. Jets and at Dallas. The Pats will be underdogs — rightfully — in all four games, just as they should be later against Buffalo twice, Kansas City, at Miami and more.
Mac Jones is 2-10 as an underdog in his career. I think the Pats will be better, but the playoffs are a reach too far based on what we know now. What do we know? Jones’ offensive line is already banged up, and the Patriots have to leap at least 3 teams on your above list to make the playoffs.
Kyed: It feels somewhat remarkable that the team even won eight games last season with everything that went wrong for Mac Jones. Not to get too nerdy by citing EPA per play again, but Jones dropped by 125.2 percent in that metric from 2021 (when they won 10 games and made the playoffs) to 2022.
He’s been confident and chipper in training camp. The team genuinely believes in him. It’s safe to say O’Brien is 125.2 percent more qualified to coach Jones and run an offense than Patricia.
Callahan: Ha ha, to say the least. But let’s talk about the defense. Should be dominant, right?
I have a hard time banking on it finishing top-5 again when the Patriots went 1-8 against quarterbacks who finished in the top half of passer rating last year. Sure, passer rating is a flawed metric, but beating elite quarterbacks is exactly what they’ll have to do this year, from Patrick Mahomes to Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen twice, etc.
Kyed: I have confidence that the Patriots’ defense will be among the NFL’s best again this season. Losing Devin McCourty hurts, but I suspect we see Bill Belichick combat his retirement with more two-high safety looks.
The Patriots also finished first in weighted DVOA last season, which is skewed towards the end of the season, when they played Allen twice and Joe Burrow once. Even a competent offense (and special teams, which we haven’t even discussed yet) could have been the difference in at least two of those three matchups.
Callahan: But how much confidence? I am confident in this team clearing its over/under win total of 7.5. But the playoffs will require nine wins, likely 10. Can they get there?
I can’t imagine them winning many slugfests, particularly if Jack Jones is suspended to start the season. Christian Gonzalez cooled mightily at the end of training camp and the preseason. Cornerback is arguably the second most important position on a roster, let alone a defense. If that’s a question mark, not to mention replacing McCourty’s calls and communication, it’s hard to bank on this team surviving Mahomes, Herbert and Allen all in December.
Kyed: For me, the path to nine wins is to split with the Dolphins and Jets, and beat the Saints, Raiders, Commanders, Colts, Giants, Steelers and Broncos. To get to 10, they’d have to overachieve against the Dolphins or Jets or surprise the Eagles, Cowboys, Bills, Chargers or Chiefs.
That Week 13 matchup against the Chargers at home is key, and the Patriots have had Herbert and head coach Brandon Staley’s number in their last two matchups.
Callahan: Fair point. The bottom line for this team’s fate might come down to health. The Dolphins are another concussion to Tua Tagovailoa away from possibly bottoming out, and the Jets’ offensive line and skill-position depth around Rodgers is thinning. But that means the Patriots have to stay healthy and get luck.
It’s why the play the games. Kickoff can’t some soon enough.