How low are expectations for the Patriots this season?
Well, they own the longest odds to make the Super Bowl.
Their over-under win total estimate sits at 4.5, worst in the AFC among most sportsbooks.
And Jerod Mayo has already declared success this year will be defined by how many foundational pieces they can develop for the future, not necessarily winning.
Which begs the question: if the Patriots themselves aren’t aiming wholeheartedly for the win column, should they outright tank?
In the NFL, tanking means the organization decides to prioritize its future over its present. It means playing young players over veterans in the name of development. It does not mean those players, or their coaches, intentionally lose on Sundays.
It does mean the front office, like the Commanders and Bears in recent years, deals veterans for draft picks at the trade deadline to boost their draft odds the following April. It does not mean anyone below that front office stops trying.
So as a team already committed to its future, should the Patriots embrace a full-on tank?
The Herald’s Patriots beat writers debate.
Callahan: It pains me to say it, but yes.
They’ve already traded their best player, Matthew Judon, for a third-round pick. They’re preserving more than $39 million in cap space so they can roll it over into next offseason. The Patriots are fully engaged in a rebuild. Now, go all-in.
Play the kids, and sell at the deadline to improve your odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick. Until the Patriots have blue-chip players at premium positions, they do everything possible to add them in the draft and free agency. That means tanking.
Kyed: The Patriots’ primary goal this season is not just to develop young players but also to put a competitive roster on the field in 2025 and beyond.
Suppose the Patriots finish with the NFL’s worst record in 2024 and pick first overall in 2025. Who will want to sign in free agency after watching this organization turn into a rudderless franchise and go 4-13 in 2023 and finish even worse the next season?
Not a single soul. That’s who.
We’ve already watched the Patriots try and fail to sign Calvin Ridley and trade for Brandon Aiyuk. They’re projected to have over $120 million in cap space next offseason. They need to use it. And in order to use it, they have to show improvement this season, and Drake Maye has to show signs of being a franchise quarterback.
If they don’t, then don’t count on Tee Higgins signing with the Patriots as a free agent.
Having the No. 1 overall pick is great. But having a slightly lower pick and being able to effectively spend that $120 million is a quicker path to relevancy.
Callahan: Not a single soul? Then how did the Panthers sign Jadeveon Clowney, Diontae Johnson and some of the league’s highest-paid offensive linemen in free agency after having the worst record in the NFL?
Money still talks loudest, especially considering other top-10 free agents who joined bad teams: quarterback Kirk Cousins (Falcons), defensive tackle Christian Wilkins (Raiders), cornerback L’Jarius Sneed (Titans) and defensive end Brian Burns, who OK’d a new contract with the Giants to facilitate a trade from Carolina.
No free agent is changing his mind because the Pats pick fifth overall instead of No. 1. Maye will be the selling point. Play him, develop rookies around him and commit to a full-on rebuild, not a half-measure to save face that isn’t there. Ask Giants fans about how that went last year, now that they have to watch Daniel Jones instead of Maye.
Pain now, gains later.
Kyed: First, I think the Patriots need to be aiming higher than Clowney, the king of the one-year contract, and Johnson, who had less than 1,600 total yards and five touchdowns – plus a reported bad attitude – over his last two seasons.
Second and most importantly, I think we both agree that priority No. 1 is to develop Maye, not only because he’s the selling point to add talented veterans but also because he has to be the future of the franchise. And you can’t develop Maye while also selling useful pieces at the trade deadline.
The Patriots are smart for sitting Maye to begin the season because they don’t have an infrastructure in place for him to succeed right away. The current strategy seems to involve benching Brissett and promoting Maye at some point during the season. Allowing the receiving corps and offensive line jell to trade pieces from either group once Maye starts seems counterintuitive to the plan and puts him in harm’s way just as much as starting him in Week 1.
The Patriots can’t risk it with Maye, but he also needs to play this season with a settled roster who won’t hinder his development.
Callahan: Except you wouldn’t be selling any off any of the running backs, tight ends or offensive line, and this is a 53-man roster with seven receivers once Kendrick Bourne returns off the Physically Unable to Perform list. Considering the Pats would have dealt him in an Aiyuk deal, he could make for a valuable piece at the deadline, and wouldn’t cost any chemistry with Maye since the two have yet to spend any time together on a field.
The question is this: if the franchise has already committed to the future by trading Matthew Judon for a draft pick, keeping its entire rookie class after roster cuts and playing young players over veterans, why not make it an organizational mandate to improve your draft stock as much as possible?
One bad tanking season may be all it takes. Look at the Bears. They traded their No. 1 overall pick to Carolina two drafts ago, then ended up with two top-10 picks this year, a Pro Bowl-caliber wideout in D.J. Moore and later were able to trade for a veteran receiver in Keenan Allen. With Moore, Allen and those rookies, they’re ready to threaten for the NFC North. That can be the Patriots in 2025.
Kyed: If the Patriots can flip Bourne for an Aiyuk-level player, then absolutely deal him. But right now, he’s the wide receiver on the Patriots’ roster with the best track record in the NFL, and I find it highly doubtful that the Patriots would be able to get more than a Day 3 pick for a 29-year-old wide receiver who’s coming off ACL surgery.
I’d rather Maye have the best possible playmakers at his disposal, even if there’s a logjam at the position.
Ultimately, I – like Vegas – believe the Patriots will be picking very high in the 2025 NFL Draft whether they deal assets at the trade deadline or not. But the product on the field matters too much as it relates to recruiting free agents to New England. The Aiyuk situation is proof that being the highest bidder isn’t always enough to get a deal done.
The Patriots must prove their new regime is competent and that Maye is a quarterback that playmakers want to work with. The path is to keep players who will help Maye succeed.