And we meet again.
After walloping the Patriots on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, the Jets are back to complete the season series Sunday at Gillette Stadium. Neither team has won a game since that night in the Meadowlands. The Jets are 2-5, and the Pats are 1-6. Both sides are desperate.
But while the Patriots have struggled with injuries, losing talent and starters by the week, the Jets have added. All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams arrived last week via trade and played a minor role in the team’s 37-15 loss at Pittsburgh last weekend. Despite that drubbing, the Jets have been installed as 7-point favorites Sunday due to their overwhelming talent edge and steadier play.
What can the Patriots do to even the playing field? Can they defend Adams, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson?
Here’s what to watch for in Foxboro:
When the Patriots run
For two straight weeks, Drake Maye has led the team in rushing. That can’t happen again.
The Patriots must create wider rushing lanes for Rhamondre Stevenson, who was limited this week in practice, as well as backups Antonio Gibson and JaMycal Hasty. Moving right tackle Mike Onwenu back to guard could help, especially after guards Michael Jordan and Sidy Sow allowed a combined three run stuffs last week versus Jacksonville. If Onwenu moves inside, that means Vederian Lowe should return at left tackle, which bumps Demontrey Jacobs back to the run side.
Patriots film review: How do Drake Maye, Jerod Mayo and Co. pick up the pieces?
Whoever plays up front, the Pats will need their running backs to miss tackles on their own. Stevenson and Gibson forced just two misses apiece back in Week 3, and the Jets should give them more opportunities Sunday. Their defense grades as the sixth-worst tackling unit in the league, per Pro Football Focus.
When the Patriots pass
Maye has produced the Patriots' best quarterback performances of the season in consecutive weeks. Can he make it three in a row?
Look for the Pats to try throwing deep, considering Maye's immense arm talent and success so far attacking downfield. In two games, he's 4-of-6 for 127 yards and two touchdowns on passes that cover 20-plus yards through the air; finding Hunter Henry, Kayshon Boutte and K.J. Osborn for completions. The issue, of course, will be protection.
Last weekend's loss to the Jaguars marked the first game this season the Patriots have allowed pressure on fewer than 40% of their dropbacks. Can the O-line hold up like that again. Tough to say.
Unlike the Jets in Week 3, Jacksonville did not blitz the Patriots at a high rate. Should the Jets blitz Maye and play man-to-man behind it again, Henry and DeMario Douglas should be his go-to targets. Because not only are they the Patriots' leading receivers, but Douglas is their only proven separator and weapon versus man-to-man, with 11 catches for 119 yards and a touchdown against that coverage this season, per PFF.
When the Jets run
This is where the softness must stop. Hall is too good, too strong, too talented of a back to give him open lanes. It's on the Patriots' defensive line and linebackers to build a wall.
Since their last meeting, the Patriots have allowed more than 170 rushing yards per game. Defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington is confident that bleeding will stop Sunday.
"Our run defense is going to get better," Covington said this week.
If so, the Pats will need a rebound game from defensive tackle Davon Godchaux. He was at the center of several breakdowns versus Jacksonville, something they cannot afford considering Godchaux is their best run-stopper left. Defensive tackles Jaquelin Roy and Eric Johnson also took turns losing 1-on-1, which should tempt the Jets to hammer them inside. Covington said he expects New York to again come heavy with its personnel.
That will force linebackers Jahani Tavai (two missed tackles last week), Raekwon McMillan and Christian Elliss to plug gaps and bring the fight to the Jets better than they did the first time around.
When the Jets pass
Even as Aaron Rodgers plays below his Hall of Fame standard for most of this season, he will inevitably find his form if the Patriots can't harass him.
In Week 3, as he faced pressure just 20% of the time, Rodgers went 27-of-35 for 281 yards and two touchdowns. The Pats just posted their lowest pressure rate of the season (19.1%) versus Jacksonville, an offense they hardly blitzed. If the Patriots bring extra rushers on Sunday, that will put pressure on their defensive backs to hang tight against Adams, Wilson, and Allen Lazard, who scored a touchdown in the first meeting.
If not, expect a zone-heavy plan.
Even though Adams was held to three catches for 30 yards in Pittsburgh, the Patriots are expecting to see more from the ex-Packer and ex-Raider this weekend.
"He's a good player, obviously has a great rapport with the quarterback," Jerod Mayo said this week. "Another week, his second week having him, I expect him to be more involved, even though he was involved in the first game."
Game pick
Jets 27, Patriots 13