Sunday should have been the Patriots’ toughest game of the season.

They confronted a Super Bowl contender with a history of beating them handily.

They played in a frigid, unforgiving road environment.

And with three weeks left and the playoffs long out of the picture, a massive gap in motivation separated them from the Bills.

But instead of getting pummeled like the 14-point underdogs they were, the Pats produced their best half of football this season. Drake Maye directed consecutive touchdown drives to start, and Jerod Mayo’s defense intercepted Josh Allen. Then, miraculously, the halftime score read: Patriots 14, Bills 7.

Of course, it all crumbled from there. Turnovers and porous run defense will do that to you.

But if the Patriots can replicate some version of Sunday’s performance — a massive, Christmas tree-sized “if” — they should feel confident about stealing a win down the stretch.

Not just because Buffalo is likely to lay down its arms in Week 18, assuming the AFC’s No. 1 seed is out of reach. But the Chargers, who visit this weekend, suffer from similar problems. The Chargers’ receivers can’t unstick from man coverage, and the Patriots plastered the Bills receivers in man-to-man more than 60% of the time.

Los Angeles’ defense is also regressing, having allowed 27 or more points in four of their last six games. So between this Saturday and next Sunday, the Pats have given themselves reason to believe they can write the ending they want. Again, that’s if, if, Mayo’s Pats can maintain a similar level of performance; which can be an awful big ask for a team that has often been its toughest opponent.

Here’s what else the film revealed about the Patriots’ latest loss:

22-of-36 for 261 yards, 2 TDs, INT

Accurate throw percentage: 73.3%

Under pressure: 6-of-13 for 57 yards, 2 sacks, 10 rushing yards

Against the blitz: 6-of-14 for 67 yards, INT

Behind the line: 5-of-5 for 52 yards

0-9 yards downfield: 14-of-17 for 138 yards

10-19 yards downfield: 2-of-6 for 31 yards, TD, INT

20+ yards downfield: 2-of-4 for 53 yards, TD

Notes: Like his team, Maye petered out as the game wore on.

He finished 0-of-4 with a sack on his last five dropbacks under pressure. He tossed a third-quarter interception inside the red zone to snuff out a scoring opportunity; his seventh straight game with a pick. Maye later threw behind Rhamondre Stevenson on a lateral that led to the Bills’ eventual game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter.

Overall, the Bills’ pressure — which arrived in waves on his final drive — seemed to have a compound effect on Maye. He converted a couple third-and-longs in the first half against the blitz and faced extra rushers on most of his initial dropbacks, while marching to consecutive touchdowns. That success seemed to spook Buffalo out of traditional blitz pressure and force them to pivot to more simulated pressures (four-man rushes that replace a dropping defensive lineman with a second- or third-level pressure after presenting blitz pre-snap).

But by the end, the Bills found success with both calls, and Maye had more problems finding open receivers than he had earlier in the game. Maye also missed a couple open throws, from the interception meant for Austin Hooper and an underthrown dig throw for Kayshon Boutte that would have resulted in an explosive play. His accurate throw percentage ranked as the second-lowest of his last five games.

Maye’s creativity flashed, as you’d expect; specifically on a spectacular 22-yard completion to Boutte fired off-platform, and a few scrambles. His best pass, of course, also found Boutte: the 28-yard touchdown that opened the game. All together, a mediocre game from Maye that featured more costly mistakes than usual.

Turnovers: Patriots 3, Bills 1

Explosive play rate: Patriots 8.8%, Bills 8.6%

Success rate: Patriots 48.5%, Bills 51.7%

Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 2-3, Bills 1-1

Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 23.5%, Bills 37.2%

Personnel breakdown: 49% of snaps in 12 personnel, 39% snaps in 11 personnel, 6% of snaps in 13 personnel, 3% of snaps in 21 personnel, 3% of snaps in 22 personnel.***

Personnel production: 51.5% success rate in 11 personnel, 50% success rate in 12 personnel, 0% success rate in 13 personnel, 50% success rate in 21 personnel, 0% success rate in 22 personnel.

First-down down play-calls: 55% pass (65% success rate), 45% run (50% success rate)

Play-action rate: 20.9%

Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt found an instant groove, mixing a high rate of play-action with running back and tight end screens to slow Buffalo’s pass rush. He also spammed outside zone runs, picking up gains of five, six and 14 yards on the first two drives alone. That steady diet of traditional zone-blocking set up a pin-and-pull run that Rhamondre Stevenson followed to his 14-yard touchdown in the second quarter.

Arguably best of all, Van Pelt finally weaponized Maye as a runner; calling four designed runs for him between a couple zone-reads and quarterback sneaks.

Now, the swing pass that led to Maye’s lost lateral was among Van Pelt’s worst calls of the season. But the play-call can’t be criticized separately from its execution. Maye threw behind Stevenson, right tackle Demontrey Jacobs missed a cut block that allowed Stevenson to get clobbered immediately, and Stevenson failed to reel in a pass that hit him in the hands. All bad.

But later, Van Pelt’s run calls on the final series were maddening. Just like his offense, a better-than-expected day for Van Pelt on balance, but not good enough.

Broken tackles: RB Antonio Gibson 5, RB Rhamondre Stevenson 3, QB Drake Maye, WR Kayshon Boutte

Pressure allowed: OT Demontrey Jacobs 5 (QB hit, 4 hurries), Maye 3 (2 sacks, hurry), Team 3 (3 hurries), LG Layden Robinson 2 (QB hit, hurry), Stevenson (hurry), Gibson (hurry)

Run stuffs allowed: Team 3, C Ben Brown, TE Hunter Henry

Drops: N/A

Personnel breakdown: 36% three-corner nickel package, 21% dime, 17% three-safety nickel, 17% base, 9% dollar.****

Coverage breakdown: 63% man, 37% zone

Blitz rate: 20.9%

Blitz efficacy: 57% offensive success rate and 4.7 yards per play allowed

Like all of the Patriots’ best defensive performances this season, the foundation of Sunday’s plan started with man coverage.

Defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington dialed up man-to-man on more than 60% of Buffalo’s passing snaps, trusting Christian Gonzalez and Co. to hold up downfield in single coverage. They did. By extension, those cornerbacks — who allowed one combined catch in man-to-man — bought time for a struggling pass rush to reach and affect Josh Allen.

Half of the Patriots’ pressures were made possible because Allen was forced to move past his second read (think coverage sacks, but hits and hurries).

That allowed Covington to blitz sparingly against Allen, save for third-and-long and red-zone situations; a wise move considering Allen’s 121.3 passer rating versus the blitz this season. Covington also deployed lighter personnel than recent weeks, sending out dime packages on second-and-long and more “Longhorn” personnel with core special teamer Brenden Schooler as a QB spy and edge-rusher. The Patriots trotted out base defense (four defensive backs) on just five snaps before the final drive.

Despite ripping off a 46-yard touchdown against base personnel in the first half, the Bills curiously didn’t hammer the Pats’ run defense until they wanted to kill clock late. That decision, plus a simple passing game plan, was a head-scratcher from Buffalo’s perspective; especially considering the Bills ran nine times for 86 yards and a touchdown with six O-linemen on the field.

Interception: S Marte Mapu

Forced fumble: CB Jonathan Jones, Mapu

Pressure: DL Jeremiah Pharms Jr. 3 (sack, QB hit, hurry), Team 3 (3 hurries) OLB Yannick Ngakoue (hurry), Mapu (hurry)

Run stuffs: Team 5, DL Daniel Ekuale

Pass deflections: CB Alex Austin, LB Christian Elliss, Mapu, Jones

Missed tackles: S Kyle Dugger 2, OLB Anfernee Jennings 2, Mapu 2, DL Jeremiah Pharms Jr., CB Alex Austin, LB Christian Elliss, DL Daniel Ekuale, DL Eric Johnson, DL Davon Godchaux

CB Jonathan Jones

The veteran corner forced a fumble and broke up a pass around four tackles. He was one of the best players on the field Sunday.

CB Christian Gonzalez

Gonzalez didn’t allow a single catch in man-to-man coverage. In fact, Josh Allen hardly looked his way.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

Seven fumbles this season, the most by a running back in the past four NFL seasons. And that doesn’t include the backwards lateral that clanged off his hands and led to Buffalo’s game-winning touchdown.

S Kyle Dugger

He’s been limited most of the season by an ankle injury, but Dugger still allowed four catches and whiffed on two tackles. Here’s hoping he rediscovers his form in 2025.

RT Demontrey Jacobs

The worst pass-protector on the field Sunday also committed two false start penalties. Can’t have it.

*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards. 

**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.

***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one running back, three tight ends; 21 = two halfbacks, one tight end.

****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel = five; dime = six; dollar defense = seven.