If you’re the Patriots, where do you start?
The defensive linemen who got pushed around like blocking sleds?
The linebackers who couldn’t fit the run behind them and missed tackles?
The offensive linemen who failed to create any rushing lanes for a second straight week and yielded more than a dozen pressures?
Right now, there may not be a bad answer. The Patriots have regressed in a way any progress will suffice. Their six-game losing streak is a skid expedited by injury, but facilitated week after week by poor coaching.
It has to stop. Because in a game where the Patriots finally started fast, staking their first double-digit lead since Week 1, they got out-flanked and out-muscled over the last three quarters. Jacksonville beat them up, 32-16, and to the point Jerod Mayo called his own team “soft.”
But was it really that bad? And what can Mayo and Co. do to pick up the pieces?
Here’s what the film revealed about the Patriots’ latest loss:
26-of-37 for 276 yards, 2 TDs, 18 rushing yards
Accurate throw percentage: 72.2%
Under pressure: 6-of-12 for 89 yards, TD, 2 sacks, 2 rushing yards
Against the blitz: 2-of-5 for 22 yards, 1 sack
Behind the line: 10-of-10 for 57 yards, TD
0-9 yards downfield: 9-of-13 for 76 yards
10-19 yards downfield: 4-of-8 for 56 yards
20+ yards downfield: 3-of-5 for 87 yards, TD
Notes: A slight step back from his debut.
Maye was lucky to avoid an interception, tallying one more turnover-worthy play than he did against the Texans, whose defense is lightyears better than Jacksonville’s. He also threw an accurate pass on fewer than 70% of his downfield attempts within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Maye’s performance under pressure generally waned as the game wore on.
But overall, there was plenty to like here. Maye ripped his 22-yard touchdown to K.J. Osborn from a closing pocket on third-and-15, displaying a kind of toughness and velocity not often seen from rookies. He extended the Patriots’ second scoring drive, first by scrambling on third down and then escaping the pocket for a first-down conversion throw to Hunter Henry.
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Maye's mobility unlocked some movement throws previously unavailable with Jacoby Brissett, though his play-action dropbacks (3-of-6 for 17 yards and a sack) could use some work. Considering Jacksonville had allowed more completions and passing yards off play-action than any other team entering Week 7, this is where it feels like the Patriots left some meat on the bone; both coach and quarterback.
Maye played well enough to win, just not well enough to carry his team to victory. Understandable for a rookie, but not nearly enough for another "A" grade.
Turnovers: Patriots 0, Jaguars 0
Explosive play rate: Patriots 5.5%, Jaguars 6.8%
Success rate: Patriots 38.9%, Jaguars 57.6%
Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 2-2, Jaguars 3-5
Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 19%, Jaguars 38%
A statistical waxing that was worse than these numbers paint.
The Patriots didn't generate an explosive play until the fourth quarter. They had a success rate of 34% before their final drive in garbage time. They produced a single "successful" play over the second and third quarters combined.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars rode them up and down the field, calling 16 runs over two separate drives in that second half to kill the clock and the game. In fact, Jacksonville posted the highest success rate the Patriots defense has allowed all season, a perfect reflection of how they controlled play. Had the Jaguars squeezed points out of their fourth-quarter drive that ended with a fourth-down stop and turnover on downs, this would have become the rout it should have been.
Personnel breakdown: 70% of snaps in 11 personnel, 30% snaps in 12 personnel.
Personnel production: 35.8% success rate in 11 personnel, 40% success rate in 12 personnel.
First-down down play-calls: 61% pass (35% success rate), 39% run (0% success rate)
Play-action rate: 19%
Motion. Movement throws. A play-action overdose.
Credit to Alex Van Pelt for his opening script that set up the Patriots' first opening-drive touchdown of the season. They would have made a movie out of that.
The rest? A curious mess.
After calling play-action passes on four of Maye's first seven dropbacks to exploit Jacksonville's weakness against the play fake, Van Pelt called just four play-action passes the rest of the game. He similarly abandoned plays with motion at the snap that unlocked a free release for DeMario Douglas on the Pats' first third-down conversion. And after calling 10 passes on that 12-play touchdown drive, he went run-heavy to start other possessions, which played right into Jacksonville's hands.
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The Pats had a single first-down run longer than three yards, which routinely put them behind the chains. The Jags hit them with run blitzes and stunts to create penetration. It was as if Jacksonville knew when Van Pelt wanted to call runs, and when he had dialed up play-action, though there was no obvious tendency by formation, quarterback alignment or personnel grouping.
The Pats dearly missed Douglas, their walking man-coverage beater who sat most of the last three quarters due to illness. After the opening drive, the offense completed one pass versus man-to-man coverage. Like most of Van Pelt's downfield pass designs, it was an isolated route; one Kayshon Boutte ran for a 31-yard catch in the fourth quarter.
Broken tackles: RB JaMycal Hasty 5, TE Austin Hooper 2, Rhamondre Stevenson 1, QB Draye Maye 1
Pressure allowed: RG Sidy Sow 4 (4 hurries), LG Michael Jordan 3 (QB hit, 2 hurries), Team 3 (sack, 2 hurries), RT Mike Onwenu 2 (sack, hurry), LT Demontrey Jacobs 2 (2 hurries), RB Layden Robinson (hurry), QB Drake Maye (hurry)
Run stuffs allowed: Jordan 2, Sow, Team
Drops: None
Personnel breakdown: 49% three-corner nickel package, 22% three-safety nickel, 22% base, 7% dime.****
Coverage breakdown: 76% zone, 24% man
Blitz rate: 23.8%
Blitz efficacy: 60% offensive success rate and 9.0 yards per play allowed
The Patriots opened in a 5-1 front with three defensive tackles, a clear effort to plug the holes in their run defense via bigger bodies. It didn't work.
The Pats got walloped regardless of the personnel they fielded. Their most common grouping, three-corner nickel, didn't slow the Jaguars' pass game, either. Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence had all day to throw, a trade-off defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington made when he decided on a from a zone-heavy game plan with minimal blitzing.
Most of the Patriots' blitzes seemed inspired by field location, rather than down-and-distance. Lawrence and the Jags beat most of them, though early on Covington baited them into a third-down screen pass designed to beat anticipated pressure. His biggest problem: Jacksonville rarely got to third down.
No matter how Covington rearranged the front or changed up personnel, the Pats got abused up front. No defense can win like that, let alone game plan around it.
Pressure: DL Keion White (hurry), Daniel Ekuale (hurry), DB Marcus Jones (hurry), Team
Run stuffs: DL Jaquelin Roy
Pass deflections: None
Missed tackles: LB Jahlani Tavai 2, DT Davon Godchaux, DL Deatrich Wise, S Marte Mapu, OLB Joshua Uche, LB Christian Elliss, LB Raekwon McMillan, DL Jaquelin Roy, DB Marcus Jones
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TE Hunter Henry
Henry's 92 receiving yards marked the fourth-highest single-game total of his career. He secured multiple big catches and showed what playing tough looks like in a losing effort.
WR Ja'Lynn Polk
His first two targets hit him in the hands and resulted in incompletions anyway. Polk slipped on his third, then left the game with a reported head injury.
Run defense
Abysmal.
Run-blocking
Drake Maye led the Patriots in rushing by scrambling — again. The backs need more room up front.
Pass rush
Four pressures, all of them hurries. Ineffective and inexcusable.
*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards.
**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.
***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one running back, three tight ends; 21 = two halfbacks, one tight end.
****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel = five; dime = six; dollar defense = seven.