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Boston Herald
Boston Herald
3 Dec 2024
Andrew Callahan


NextImg:Patriots film review: Drake Maye makes a critical leap and more Colts loss takeaways

As hard as Sunday’s loss hit, splitting the blame pie for the Patriots afterward was easy.

Everybody got a slice.

The offense, for tripping on penalties and a turnover to ruin four trips inside the red zone.

The defense, for failing to halt a 20-play, game-winning drive, including the Colts’ crushing two-point conversion. Not to mention forcing just two punts around three earlier scoring drives.

And kicker Joey Slye, for missing a 25-yard chip shot before halftime before later coming up short on what would have been a record-breaking 68-yarder at the buzzer.

But Sunday’s film offered more than blame. It revealed another sparkling Drake Maye performance, an offense coalescing around him, why the Patriots struggled in the red zone, a secondary shifting around Christian Gonzalez and reasons to worry about that same defense besides Indianapolis’ final drive.

And still, there’s more. Here’s what else the film revealed about the Patriots’ latest loss:

Foxboro, MA - New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye looks to pass during the second quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye looks to pass during the second quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

24-of-30 for 238 yards, TD, INT, 59 rushing yards

Accurate throw percentage: 80%

Under pressure: 5-of-6 for 83 yards, 3 sacks, 10 rushing yards

Against the blitz: 5-of-6 for 38 yards, 6 rushing yards

Behind the line: 3-of-3 for 18 yards

0-9 yards downfield: 16-of-20 for 129 yards, INT

10-19 yards downfield: 5-of-7 for 91 yards, TD

20+ yards downfield: N/A

Notes: You’ve seen him scramble. You’ve marveled at the arm.

How about Drake Maye’s timing?

Sunday featured Maye’s most accurate performance as a pro, thanks to a growing knack for delivering anticipatory throws that beat tight coverage. Maye converted five first downs with passes that left his hand as the intended receiver broke off his route, from Kendrick Bourne to tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper. Maye’s only touchdown was a beautiful display of anticipation and accuracy, lofting a helmet-high pass to Hooper over tight man-to-man coverage in the second quarter.

Maye gouged the Colts’ almost whenever they played man, first with a 41-yard scramble, the Hooper touchdown and a couple of third-down conversions to Henry. He also sifted through Indianapolis’ occasional zone disguises, finding seams in Cover 2 and checkdowns when they presented themselves against the Colts’ base Cover 3 looks. Overall, he posted a plus-10.4% CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected), a metric that accounts for difficulty of throws by using tracking data. That marked the highest of his young career.

Overall, Maye processed quickly yet played a patient game, showing an approach mature beyond his years, and certainly for a rookie making his eighth start. One knock: Maye prematurely left a couple pockets to escape to his right, a tendency for him like many right-handed, mobile quarterbacks. Only once did Maye’s decision to bail result in a sack, with the others resulting from good downfield coverage.

One more thing: remember how some fretted over his turnovers last week? Maye finished without a single turnover-worthy play for the first time this season.

Turnovers: Patriots 1, Colts 2

Explosive play rate: Patriots 7.4%, Colts 3.4%

Success rate: Patriots 59.7%, Colts 58.6%

Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 2-6, Colts 3-4

Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 28%, Colts 30.7%

Foxboro, MA - New England Patriots wide receiver Kendrick Bourne is hauled down by Indianapolis Colts safety Nick Cross during the fourth quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots wide receiver Kendrick Bourne is hauled down by Indianapolis Colts safety Nick Cross during the fourth quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Personnel breakdown: 61% of snaps in 11 personnel, 34% of snaps in 12 personnel, 4% of snaps in 21 personnel, 1% of snaps in 13 personnel .***

Personnel production: 58.5% success rate in 11 personnel, 56.2% success rate in 12 personnel, 100% success rate in 21 personnel, 100% success rate in 13 personnel.

First-down down play-calls: 55% pass (62.5% success rate), 45% run (57.1% success rate)

Play-action rate: 23.1%

Like Patriots offensive coordinators of the past, Alex Van Pelt attacked a base Cover 3 zone defense with a bevy of short throws. Maye didn’t attempt a single pass more than 16 yards past the line of scrimmage, per Next Gen Stats, and instead carved Indianapolis up with quick-hitters. The tight ends and slot receiver DeMario Douglas combined for 15 of the Patriots’ 24 catches, most on high-low concepts or other routes that stretched zone defenders.

Van Pelt also hit the Colts with a well-balanced rushing attack, starting with a 32-yard counter run and ensuing outside zone calls. He also sprinkled in a successful shovel pass to Hunter Henry from a rare two-back backfield featuring Marcus Jones, put Rhamondre Stevenson alone for a goal-line touchdown called back by penalty and dialed up one of his highest rates of play-action yet (5-of-5 for 52 yards, plus four scrambles). Once the game settled down, the Patriots lived mostly out of their base concepts.

Criticisms of Van Pelt’s play-calling on a bad three-and-out in the fourth quarter miss the fact the Patriots had more than 200 rushing yards at that point, and a 60% success rate on runs. Yes, run-run-pass is no master play-calling sequence, but the offense had its formula then and a dual goal of scoring points and killing clock.

One area worth scrutinizing: the consecutive runs called starting at the Colts’ 11-yard line with 41 seconds left in the first half. Maye handed the ball off on first-and-10 and second-and-9, and the Patriots called timeout after both plays to preserve the clock. Why not just throw?

Foxboro, MA - New England Patriots running back Antonio Gibson scores a touchdown during the fourth quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots running back Antonio Gibson scores a touchdown during the fourth quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Broken tackles: RB Antonio Gibson 7, Rhamondre Stevenson 2, TE Hunter Henry 2, WR Kendrick Bourne, QB Drake Maye

Pressure allowed: Team 6 (2 sacks, QB hit, 3 hurries), LG Layden Robinson 2 (2 hurries), QB Drake Maye (sack), LT Vederian Lowe (hurry), RG Mike Onwenu (hurry), RT Demontrey Jacobs (hurry)

Run stuffs allowed: Team 2, Onwenu

Drops: N/A

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Foxboro, MA - New England Patriots' Christian Barmore looks at Davon Godchaux on the bench after the defense gave up a touchdown during the second quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots’ Christian Barmore looks at Davon Godchaux on the bench after the defense gave up a touchdown during the second quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Personnel breakdown: 62% three-safety nickel package, 28% three-corner nickel, 7% dime, 3% base defense.****

Coverage breakdown: 56% zone, 44% man

Blitz rate: 32%

Blitz efficacy: 75% offensive success rate and 6.5 yards per play allowed

Before the final drive, the Patriots primarily worked from three-safety personnel and zone coverage calls. Defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington preferred soft versions of Cover 3, which helped split the difference between loading the box to stop Indy’s run game and guarding against Richardson’s deep strikes. The results were mixed, as the Colts maintained a steady run game but produced just two explosive plays all day.

Later, Covington dialed up more man-to-man and more blitzes to disrupt the Colts on their marathon, game-winning drive. The Patriots had thrived in off-man coverage to that point, allowing two completions on five attempts before Christian Gonzalez’s pick in the fourth quarter. But Richardson found completions attacking Kyle Dugger and Alex Austin, who also got flagged for a key pass interference penalty.

Ultimately, on fourth-and-3, Dugger allowed a touchdown catch to Colts receiver Alec Pierce from a goal-line zone defense that nonetheless left him exposed in a bad 1-on-1 matchup.

Covington’s other problem: no amount of Xs nor Os could solve getting blown off the ball. The Colts rushed for 144 yards, but just 66 after contact. The Pats tackled well, but lost the line of scrimmage too often until their last couple downs, by which point Indianapolis picked on their secondary weak links and then called a perfect run play to pull out a win.

Foxboro, MA - New England Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers chases down Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson during the fourth quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers chases down Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson during the fourth quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Interception: CB Christian Gonzalez

Pressure: OLB Yannick Ngakoue (QB hit), LB Christian Elliss (QB hit), DL Keion White (hurry), DL Jeremiah Pharms (hurry), DL Eric Johnson (hurry), S Jabrill Peppers (hurry), Team (hurry)

Run stuffs: Team 3, DL Daniel Ekuale, Gonzalez, Peppers

Pass deflections: DB Marcus Jones 2, CB Alex Austin 2, S Kyle Dugger, LB Jahlani Tavai, Elliss, Gonzalez

Missed tackles: Elliss 2, Ngakoue

QB Drake Maye

His most accurate game as a pro. Maye also did damage scrambling, busting out a 41-yard rush for the Patriots’ third-longest play of the year.

RB Antonio Gibson

He took seven carries and forced seven missed tackles, piling up 62 yards and a touchdown.

CB Christian Gonzalez

He made one more catch than he allowed in man-to-man coverage, picking off a pass in the fourth quarter. Gonzalez also made a late run stop on the perimeter during the Colts’ final drive.

DL Davon Godchaux

The centerpiece of the Patriots’ run defense, Godchaux helped allow 144 rushing yards and got controlled on the game-winning two-point conversion.

RG Mike Onwenu

Onwenu got beat on what could be argued as a coverage sack on the Patriots’ opening drive, later got flagged for holding and was at fault on a third-down run-stuff.

*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards. 

**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.

***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one running back, three tight ends; 21 = two halfbacks, one tight end.

****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel = five; dime = six; quarter = seven.