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Boston Herald
Boston Herald
5 Dec 2023
Andrew Callahan


NextImg:Patriots-Chargers film review: Bill Belichick’s worst roster flaw is killing the offense

Like the lonely zero that hung on the scoreboard at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, Bill Belichick’s history of drafting wide receivers is sad, painful and plain to see.

Do you know the last college receiver the Patriots selected who became a multi-year NFL starter?

That would be Deion Branch in 2002. That’s right.

It’s been more than 20 years since Belichick drafted and developed a true wideout. Tom Brady papered over that problem for two decades, as he did many dynasty-era deficiencies. But now Belichick’s receiving corps is undermining the Patriots more than any other non-quarterback position on the roster.

Think about it.

Kayshon Boutte failed to tap a second foot inbounds in the final seconds of the Pats’ season opener against the Eagles; DeVante Parker dropped a 50-yard bomb on the final drive at Las Vegas; JuJu Smith-Schuster deflected a game-sealing interception to the Commanders to clinch a loss in Week 9.

On Sunday, it was Tyquan Thornton’s turn to kneecap his teammates, dropping a would-be, go-ahead, 68-yard touchdown pass down the left sideline late in the third quarter. The offense got shut out, it seemed, because of Bailey Zappe, a below-average backup who barely completed half his passes. Yet Zappe delivered an accurate ball on 67% of his attempts, and shouldn’t that be enough?

Remember how Zappe put that ball exactly on Thornton’s hands, and Thornton later finished with zero catches. Meanwhile, Smith-Schuster and Jalen Reagor each had one catch. Around four grabs, Parker dropped one pass, false-started and whipped one leg out of bounds on another well-placed deep ball.

All together, the Patriots averaged 2.8 yards per play when they fielded three receivers against the Chargers, who own a bottom-8 pass defense by DVOA, EPA and yards allowed per attempt. Mind-boggling.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles promoted practice-squad wideout Alex Erickson on Saturday, and he knocked out the Pats with a 23-yard catch against man coverage on the Chargers’ last possession. With that catch, Erickson gained more yards than Smith-Schuster, Thornton and Reagor had combined, and Boutte boasts for the season.

Must it be this hard? Must the Patriots roster four of the NFL’s 20 worst pass-catchers by ESPN’s all-inclusive receiver analytics? Or the league’s second-worst separator in Parker and its second-worst yards-after-catch player in Smith-Schuster, both according to Next Gen Stats?

Belichick once boiled the job of a wide receiver down to two duties: get open and catch the ball. Through a dozen games, this group is 0-for-2.

Here’s what else the film revealed about Sunday’s loss:

Accurate throw percentage: 66.7%

Under pressure: 3-of-5 for 18 yards, 5 sacks

Against the blitz: 3-of-7 for 25 yards, 3 sacks

Behind the line: 3-of-4 for 33 yards

0-9 yards downfield: 7-of-11 for 46 yards

10-19 yards downfield: 2-of-4 for 35 yards

20+ yards downfield: 1-of-5 for 27 yards

Notes: Zappe offered an upgrade from Mac Jones mostly because he didn’t implode.

Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe throws past Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackle Nick Williams during the fourth quarter Sunday. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe throws past Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackle Nick Williams during the fourthquarter Sunday. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Zappe finished without a turnover, and stepped up in the face of pressure, including two scrambles that resulted in successful plays. However, he also took sacks on half of the snaps he felt pressure, a percentage no offense can survive. That was the chief reason the Patriots went scoreless, next to Rhamondre Stevenson’s fumble at the Chargers’ 31.

Zappe got sacked four times on the fringe of field goal range, at the Chargers’ 28, 30, 32 and 36-yard lines. Most stemmed from protection breakdowns, but by and large sacks are a quarterback stat, and Zappe has a tendency to cling to the ball too long. That flaw eliminated a couple scoring chances Sunday.

Lastly, Zappe’s aggression unlocked a downfield passing game that collected dust with Jones. His 27-yarder to DeVante Parker matched the Patriots’ number of deep completions (defined as covering 20-plus yards in the air) in their previous six games combined. Zappe’s five deep attempts also tied for the Pats’ third-most such attempts in a single game this season.

Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson finds a hole during the first quarter against the Chargers on Sunday. He later left the game injured. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson finds a hole during the first quarter against the Chargers on Sunday. He later left the game injured. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Patriots running back Ezekiel Elliott goes over Los Angeles Chargers safety Derwin James Jr. during a third-quarter run Sunday. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Patriots running back Ezekiel Elliott goes over Los Angeles Chargers safety Derwin James Jr. during a third-quarter run Sunday. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Patriots defenders Josh Uche, left, and Jabrill Peppers celebrate a stop during the second quarter. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Patriots defenders Josh Uche, left, and Jabrill Peppers celebrate a stop during the second quarter. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

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The elder statesman of the Patriots’ secondary shut down two end-zone throws and didn’t allow a catch all game.

In just 28 defensive snaps, Wilson tallied a hurry and a pass breakup. He played inside and outside linebacker, as he continues to grow into a new edge role.

Patriots wide receiver Tyquan Thornton can't make the catch, defended by Los Angeles Chargers cornerback Deane Leonard, of a well-thrown deep pass from Bailey Zappe in Sunday's 6-0 loss in Foxboro. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Patriots wide receiver Tyquan Thornton can’t make the catch, defended by Los Angeles Chargers cornerback Deane Leonard, of a well-thrown deep pass from Bailey Zappe in Sunday’s 6-0 loss in Foxboro. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Context is key here: blocking a future Hall of Famer in Khalil Mack is no easy task. But Mack beat Onwenu cleanly on other reps around the one sack and two hurries he allowed. Tough day.

Another receiving line of goose eggs.

No one played more passing snaps than Smith-Schuster, who finished with one catch for a fourth time this season.

Statistics for passing depth, broken tackles and missed tackles courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards. Explosive play rate is one of the most strongly correlated metrics with wins and losses.

**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.

***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one running back, three tight ends.

****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel defense = five defensive backs; dime defense = six defensive backs.