Rested and ready to go.
The Patriots are back after their long-awaited bye week, hoping to chase down a happy ending to what’s been a tough season. At 3-10, quarterback Drake Maye has arguably been their lone bright spot, though reinforcements are on the way. Will it be enough to pull an upset in Arizona?
Losers of three straight, the Cardinals (6-7) need a win to keep their fading playoff hopes alive. Quarterback Kyler Murray is both the driver and engine of a well-balanced offense. Murray leans heavily on tight end Trey McBride and rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. as a passer, and has combined with veteran running back James Conner for more than 1,300 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Defensively, Arizona has been forced to be creative schematically to make up for a lack of talent, especially up front where a lack of pass rush might bail out a leaky Patriots offensive line.
Can Maye and Co. survive in the desert? Here’s what to watch for:
Might this finally be the week Maye runs by design?
Maye was spotted drilling an option run at the start of practice Thursday, a sign the Patriots coaching staff might finally be willing to unleash him in their rushing attack. Running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson have carried the load most of the year, and especially late in Gibson’s case. The fifth-year veteran has outperformed Stevenson for a month straight, as Stevenson’s missed tackle numbers and explosive runs have plummeted.
Whoever is toting the rock in Arizona, the Patriots must crack a tough Cardinals run defense that’s allowed more than 80 rushing yards once in the last six weeks. And as always, when the Pats need a hard yard or two, look for them to burrow behind right guard Mike Onwenu.
Coming off his best game of the season, Maye is poised for more.
He should find roomy pockets versus an Arizona defense that doesn’t boast a single threatening pass-rusher (second-year defensive lineman Dante Stills leads with 4.5 sacks). That said, the Patriots offensive line remains the worst pass-protecting unit in the league and could experience more personnel shakeup after Cole Strange and Caedan Wallace practiced in full pads this week. If/when Maye does have time, look for him to attack the middle of the field.
Arizona ranks fifth-worst in the NFL at covering the short middle of the field by DVOA, which is nothing if not an invitation for slot receiver DeMario Douglas to go to work. Douglas ranks second on the team in catches and receiving yards behind only tight end Hunter Henry, who should have a tough battle versus Cardinals safety Buddha Baker. The six-time Pro Bowler is the heartbeat of Arizona’s defense with 81 tackles, two sacks and three pass deflections.
“It’s hard not to see Budda Baker on film,” Maye said this week. “He’s flying around. He’s a great player. They do a lot of different stuff and different fronts. They mix up coverages, play some man and bring all out on you. You’ve got a lot to prepare for and we’ve got a tough challenge.”
At 6-foot-1 and 233 pounds, James Conner brings a battering-ram element to Arizona’s backfield. He’s rushed for 863 yards and five touchdowns this season at 4.3 yards per carry. Conner is tracking for career highs in rushing yards and attempts, despite turning 30 in a matter of months.
“It’s been very impressive to see that a guy at this age is still running very hard,” Mayo said. “He’s tough, he can run between the tackles, he can run outside, he can run you over, he can run around you, so he’s a very good player.”
Expect the Cardinals to attack a Patriots run defense that has ranked among the league’s worst most of the season. That means Conner and Murray, who is a threat to run on scrambles and option designs. That will put extra pressure on edge defenders like Anfernee Jennings, Yannick Ngakoue and Keion White, who plays all across the defensive line.
It’s easy to forget that last April some believed the Patriots were better off drafting Harrison Jr. That’s how good the young receiver profiled as a prospect, and he’s come close to living up to the hype.
Harrison Jr. ranks second in catches (45) and receiving yards (655), but leads the team with seven touchdowns. At 6-foot-4 and 205, he’s a threat in the red zone and downfield.
“This is a guy who, obviously, he grew up in it, but great hands, great size, and he’s also good when Kyler’s (Murray) extending the play,” Mayo said this week. “He has a good feel; it’s like they have a good chemistry between the two of them. So, good player.”
It’s possible the Patriots could task star corner Christian Gonzalez with shadowing Harrison Jr., as they have against other top receivers this season. If so, McBride (80 catches, 851 yards) is the only other major receiving threat to watch; someone who may even draw double teams. But if he’s singled up against any of the Patriots safeties, including Kyle Dugger, look for Murray to find his tight end or scramble to convert in key situations.
Cardinals 27, Patriots 19