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Boston Herald
Boston Herald
2 Jan 2024
Andrew Callahan


NextImg:Patriots-Bills film review: Bill Belichick’s latest loss a microcosm of lost season

The Patriots lost at Buffalo because they fielded lesser talent, committed more damaging mistakes and failed to seize on late-game chances.

Sound familiar? It should.

Sunday was a striking microcosm of their season; an effort nuked by quarterback turnovers in the first half and special teams errors in the second, that proved unsalvageable despite strong defense throughout. Though, this was no defensive masterpiece. Josh Allen and the Bills offense played like they had popped their New Year’s Eve champagne a night early.

Despite facing a mild pass rush (26.4% pressure rate) and favorable weather conditions, Allen threw a higher percentage of uncatchable passes than he has in any other game this season. His receivers dropped four balls. The Patriots did limit the Bills to two explosive plays and stood tall inside the red zone, but Buffalo cracked their league-best run defense for a 55% rushing success rate.

In the end, that’s how Allen and Co. knocked the Pats out, running the final 5:02 off the clock.

Yet, the instant analysis from Sunday was how hard the Patriots played. And even if it’s a feather no one would ever have reached for at any other point of Bill Belichick’s tenure, that ought to be a feather in his cap at 4-12. Because that is all he and his staff have been able to fight for going on months now: continued buy-in.

To play and coach their way and to keep the ship steady, even if it was blown off course long ago. Like a football team that loses four turnovers in the first 18 minutes of a game, but manages to march to the precipice of a comeback before finally falling as it was expected to all along.

Here’s what else the film revealed about Sunday’s loss:

New England Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe (4) throws a pass during an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Orchard Park, NY. (AP Photo/Matt Durisko)

New England Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe (4) throws a pass during an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Orchard Park, NY. (AP Photo/Matt Durisko)

Accurate throw percentage: 66.7%

Under pressure: 3-of-7 for 38 yards, TD (scramble), INT, 3 sacks

Against the blitz: 1-of-3 for 14 yards, TD (scramble), INT, 2 sacks

Behind the line: 3-of-4 for 64 yards

0-9 yards downfield: 8-of-11 for 48 yards, 3 INTs

10-19 yards downfield: 4-of-6 for 58 yards

20+ yards downfield: 1-of-3 for 39 yards

Notes: Since Zappe took over the starting job, the Patriots offense has traded an identity rooted in efficiency for a boom-or-bust experience. Sunday offered the best example yet.

Zappe’s deep completion to Jalen Reagor, two successful screen passes and long scrambles helped the Pats post a season-high 11.3% explosive play rate. Most games, that type of explosiveness would clinch a win. Except Zappe’s three interceptions all but handed Buffalo a win in the first half, and the offense finished with a lowly 38% success rate.

On the first two interceptions, the Bills pounced on a couple of the Patriots’ pet passing concepts: a “stick” concept to Mike Gesicki, who ran a short stop/stick route, and a backside slant to DeVante Parker. Credit to Buffalo for studying up and jumping those plays, though Zappe should not have pulled the trigger on the second one.

Later, Zappe had a miscommunication with Reagor that led to a pick-six. It’s unclear whether Zappe or Reagor failed to adjust against an incoming Buffalo blitz. But the bottom lines here are simple: Zappe was not accurate enough to overcome three interceptions (66.7% accuracy rate), and an offense that scores 14 points won’t win.

Either, cut the mistakes or boost your efficiency. Or, ideally, both.

New England Patriots wide receiver DeMario Douglas (81) attempts to stiff arm Buffalo Bills defensive end Leonard Floyd (56) after a catch during an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Orchard Park, NY. (AP Photo/Matt Durisko)during an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Orchard Park, NY. (AP Photo/Matt Durisko)

New England Patriots wide receiver DeMario Douglas (81) attempts to stiff arm Buffalo Bills defensive end Leonard Floyd (56) after a catch during an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Orchard Park, NY. (AP Photo/Matt Durisko)during an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Orchard Park, NY. (AP Photo/Matt Durisko)

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) scrambles out of the pocket with New England Patriots defensive end Deatrich Wise Jr. (91) in pursuit during the first half of an NFL football game in Orchard Park, N.Y., Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) scrambles out of the pocket with New England Patriots defensive end Deatrich Wise Jr. (91) in pursuit during the first half of an NFL football game in Orchard Park, N.Y., Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)

New England Patriots cornerback Alex Austin (28) intercepts pass during an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Orchard Park, NY. (AP Photo/Matt Durisko)

New England Patriots cornerback Alex Austin (28) intercepts pass during an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Orchard Park, NY. (AP Photo/Matt Durisko)

The rookie ex-Bill baited Josh Allen with a veteran play in coverage that Belichick later compared to a play once made against the Patriots by an All-Pro. Austin also added three tackles.

Wise was the only Patriot to record multiple pressures, including a first-quarter sack that helped end Buffalo’s opening drive.

A kick return touchdown and 39-yard catch. That’ll do.

Three interceptions put the Patriots in what should have been a near insurmountable hole. Can’t have it.

His only catch ended in a fumble.

The Patriots averaged just 1.5 yards per carry before contact on designed hand-offs. Aside from Sow, this was a rough outing.

Statistics for passing depth, broken tackles and missed tackles courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards. Explosive play rate is one of the most strongly correlated metrics with wins and losses.

**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.

***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one running back, three tight ends; 21 = two halfbacks, one tight end.

****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel defense = five defensive backs; dime defense = six defensive backs; goal-line defense = three defensive backs; dollar defense = seven defensive backs.