The 2025 Red Sox glass is half-full.
Pass the Kool-Aid.
New England thirsts for MLB postseason play.
No need to lace this Kool-Aid with LSD (thank you, Tom Wolfe) or something more potent (no thank you, Jim Jones).
The 2025 Red Sox boast Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, Alex Bregman, and one-third of the Gold Dust Triplets on their Opening Day roster Thursday in Texas — not to mention a paunchy and pouty Raffy Devers at DH.
Serve me a 16-ounce glass of original cherry Red Sox Kool-Aid straight up over ice, but with 50% less sugar than the original.
Hopefully RFK Jr. won’t pull the plug on all those delicious dyes, addictive additives, and yummy artificial flavors before the All-Star Game.
We pride ourselves on warranted — yet deeply disturbed — cynicism concerning the Red Sox. Mine goes back to grade school. We gleefully engage in a race to the bottom (or top?) to see who can outdo the next guy with the most caustic, cutting, negative, and fatalistic opinion. In this space, we’ve been critical of players, coaches, managers, trainers, GMs, media, fans, ownership — and ownership’s third wife.
This offseason, the Red Sox trifled with Juan Soto by offering him $700 million in Monopoly money. That insulted even Wally’s intelligence. There was a 0.0% chance the Red Sox were going to sign Soto, no matter how many self-anointed insiders hinted otherwise.
So much faux news.
You can be forgiven if it feels like the Red Sox have been “in on” every big-name free agent since Dave McNally and Andy Messersmith.
This week, thanks to Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic, we learned the Red Sox DOGE’d themselves this offseason by cleaning house in the front office and elsewhere. Mini-Musk Craig Breslow somehow got John Henry to cough up $40 million a year for Bregman.
Here’s where the Kool-Aid starts to sweeten. Bregman anchors the left side of the infield and right side of the plate. He can launch balls over the Green Monster on a consistent basis. But he won’t be grounding into double plays just to prove a point.
Would-be phenom Kristian Campbell made the Opening Day roster, as the Red Sox are otherwise bereft at second base. Fellow Gold Dust Triplets Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony begin their 2025 in Worcester.
Elsewhere, the success of the Red Sox depends fundamentally on players who have yet to demonstrate consistent full-season availability and durability. Trevor Story’s tale includes just 163 games in 3 years with the team. Crochet, touted as a potential Cy Young winner, has never thrown more than 146 innings in a season.
Yes when it comes to guidance for the 2025 Red Sox, betting markets are bullish. Last year, the preseason win total for the Sox was 80.5. Boston finished 81-81. These guys know their stuff.
(Repeated disclosure alert: In my other life, I’m Senior Betting Analyst with bookies.com.)
The 2025 Red Sox are drawing significant action in MLB futures markets. Boston opened the offseason at +4000 (40-1) to win the World Series. That price has spiked to +1800 (18-1). Their projected win total has risen from 81.5 at some books to 86.5 across the board.
“The tide shifted once they acquired Garrett Crochet during the offseason,” says Eric Biggio, Head of Baseball at Caesars Sportsbook. “They’ve taken 36% of the bets to win the AL East and are our biggest liability to win the division — opening at +650 and now at +300 (or 3-1). They’re currently -130 to make the playoffs, and the sharp money has come on the ‘Yes’ as the majority of tickets have gone that way.”
This writer bet the Red Sox at -120 to make the playoffs and 25-1 to win the World Series. Wager accordingly.
Biggio is very optimistic about the Red Sox. And no, he’s not on John Henry’s payroll.
“It’s hard not to be bullish on their chances this year. Especially with the injuries to the Yankees and Baltimore’s inactivity this offseason, the Red Sox are well-positioned for the AL East title. As with any team, they need to stay healthy — keeping their key starters like Crochet and Buehler going every fifth day is crucial. My one concern is what’s going on with Rafael Devers,” Biggio says. “Outside of that, I like their chances. They’ve got a good mix of young talent and proven vets.”
At BetMGM, the Red Sox are the 2nd-most bet team to win their division, behind only the Cubs in the NL Central. The Red Sox (+250) have 55.6% of the book’s AL East win handle.There’s similar sentiment at Boston-based DraftKings. At DK nationwide, 98% of the money bet on Red Sox win total backs them going over 86.5 games.
In terms of money bet at DK, the Red Sox are:
• No. 1 to win the American League
• No. 1 to win the AL East
• No. 4 to win the World Series
• No. 4 to make the playoffs
“I’m buying into the hype surrounding the Red Sox this season, particularly with the Yankees potentially taking a step back. Boston bolstered both the rotation and the lineup, and there seems to be a lot of buy-in within the organization. The move on the win total from the opening number of 84.5 to the current 86.5 is definitely warranted,” says DK Content Specialist Julian Edlow.
Color me convinced. At least in March.
Don’t be surprised if a gluten-free Kool-Aid Man crashes through the left field wall before the 1975 Anniversary ceremony on Opening Day at Fenway Park.
“Oh, yeah!”
The first 35,000 glasses are on me.
Bill Speros (@RealOBF and @BillSperos on X) can be reached at bsperos1@gmail.com.