Hurricane Helene’s wide and destructive wind field was moving along the Gulf Coast of Florida southwest of Tampa on Thursday morning and is expected to rapidly intensify on a direct path for the state’s Big Bend region, where it could pose “a nightmare surge scenario for Apalachee Bay,” according to the National Weather Service.
The state’s capital, Tallahassee, is directly in the path of Helene, which reached Category 2 strength Thursday and is expected to grown into a major Category 4 storm before making landfall late Thursday or early Friday morning.
Helene will have one of the largest wind fields of any storm to hit the southeast U.S. in years, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach, who said that since 1988, only three Gulf hurricanes were bigger than Helene’s predicted size: 2017’s Irma, 2005’s Wilma and 1995’s Opal.
Forecasters said Helene will intensify further than previously forecast, forecasting 130 mph winds before landfall.
“This forecast, if realized, is a nightmare surge scenario for Apalachee Bay,” the National Weather Service office said. “Please, please, please take any evacuation orders seriously!”
Regardless of where the center comes ashore, Helene will bring widespread and life-threatening conditions to much of the Florida peninsula, including far inland. Tropical storm-force winds hit the Florida Keys overnight and gusts reached South Florida by mid-morning Thursday. Sustained winds of between 20 and 30 mph are expected across South Florida until between 10 p.m. and midnight Thursday.
At a news conference Thursday morning, Gov. Ron DeSantis and Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie reminded Floridians to prepare for life-threatening storm surge as well as dangerous and destructive winds.
“If you hear trees snapping around your home, treat it like a tornado,” Guthrie said. Residents should go to an interior room such as a bathroom and cover themselves with something protective, like a comforter or heavy blanket.
Those in Tallahassee should expect “significant debris,” DeSantis said, adding that the forecast track from Wednesday night was “not a track we have not seen of that magnitude hit Tallahassee in anyone’s lifetime.”
Power outages are likely as falling tree limbs hit power lines, though the governor did not give an estimate as to how long those outages might last. He said it could return as quickly as it did when Hurricane Idalia struck nearby last year, but it depends on whether there is a “structural disruption” on top of damaged power lines, such as during Ian, which can leave people without power for much longer.
The governor and his staff will ride out the storm in the city’s emergency operations center.
The entire coast of Florida is under various warnings. A hurricane warning is in effect on the west coast from north of Tampa Bay to Mexico Beach on the Panhandle. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings encompass nearly the entirety of Florida, including Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties.
In addition, a tornado watch remains in place until 8 p.m. for South Florida, and several tornado warnings have been issued and expired when the imminent threat diminished.
The fast-moving storm’s wind and rain could also penetrate far inland: The hurricane center posted hurricane warnings well into Georgia and tropical storm warnings as far north as North Carolina, and it warned that much of the Southeast could experience prolonged power outages, toppled trees and dangerous flooding.
For Atlanta, Helene could be the worst strike on a major Southern inland city in 35 years, said University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall Shepherd.
As of 11 a.m. Thursday, Helene was located 255 miles southwest of Tampa, moving north-northeast at 14 mph with sustained winds of 105 mph. Helene will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Thursday, where conditions are “very conductive for strengthening,” the National Hurricane Center said. It will make landfall in the Big Bend late Thursday.
Parts of South Florida recorded wind gusts as high as 55 mph Wednesday night, and one reported gust early Thursday in Fort Lauderdale at 64 mph, as Helene’s strong outer bands began to move through the region, according to the National Weather Service Miami.
Sustained winds in South Florida will most likely be below 40 mph. Isolated areas near the Atlantic coast could see higher gusts, according to NWS Miami. West Palm Beach to Miami has a 15-25% chance of seeing sustained tropical-storm-force winds, from 39 mph to 73 mph, until Thursday night.
Several school districts and universities in the state closed campuses, and government offices and buildings will be closed in many counties. Broward and Palm Beach County schools are closed Thursday, along with Broward College, Florida Atlantic University and Palm Beach State College. Schools will be open in Miami-Dade County but with restrictions.
Airports across the state closed or suspended operations. Tampa International closed commercial operations on Thursday and will resume when it’s safe to reopen after the hurricane’s passage; some airlines have cancelled traffic to Southwest Florida International Airport in Fort Myers.
Orlando International is still open, as are Miami International, Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International, and Palm Beach International, but travelers are advised to check with their airlines or the travel service Flight Aware for possible delays or disruptions.
On the west coast, the threat of destructive, life-threatening storm surge is widespread.
The surge in Naples crested at 2.48 feet, according to the National Weather Service.
“A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves,” the hurricane center said.
Portions of the Panhandle, from Carrabelle to Suwannee River, could receive 15 to 20 feet of storm surge, the hurricane center said.
In Tallahassee, where stations started to run out of gas, 19-year-old Florida A&M student Kameron Benjamin filled sandbags with his roommate to protect their apartment before evacuating. Their school and Florida State shut down.
“This hurricane is heading straight to Tallahassee, so I really don’t know what to expect,” Benjamin said.
As Big Bend residents battened down their homes, many saw the ghost of 2018’s Hurricane Michael. That storm rapidly intensified and crashed ashore as a Category 5 that laid waste to Panama City and parts of the rural Panhandle.
Live webcams: Watch Hurricane Helene’s impacts on Florida coast
Storm surge warnings are in effect from Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo south of Everglades National Park, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
The large width of the storm is a concern, with tropical-storm force winds extending 345 miles from the center and hurricane-force winds extending up to 35 miles from the center.
The projected speed of the storm will also likely carry devastating impacts far inland. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting the the storm remain a hurricane well into Georgia.
“You are going to have a major hurricane plowing inland, and storms take a little time to decay once they’re inland,” said Brian McNoldy, an environmental researcher at the University of Miami.
Inland areas could receive 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated totals around 15 inches, resulting in flash flooding to northwestern and northern Florida, the Southeast, southern Appalachians, and the Upper Tennessee Valley through Friday. Steeper areas of southern Appalachians could see landslides.
“Considerable to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for northwestern and northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday,” the hurricane center said.
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2024/09/25/when-and-where-will-hurricane-helene-hit-florida/
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Isaac is forecast to become a hurricane within days, although it will be no threat to land.
As of 11 a.m. Thursday, Isaac was 820 miles east-northeast of Bermuda with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, moving east at 12 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 70 miles from the storm’s center. It is expected to move east to east-northeast over the open waters of the Atlantic.
Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, but the height of storm production runs from mid-August into October.
Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.
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