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Boston Herald
Boston Herald
30 Jul 2023
Andrew Callahan


NextImg:NFL notebook: How the Patriots could extend Matt Judon, Kyle Dugger and Josh Uche on fair contracts

Much like their end-zone militia before a Mac Jones touchdown pass, the Patriots’ front office is keeping its powder dry.

The Pats own the third-cheapest roster in the NFL, per Over The Cap. They are scheduled to rank dead last or second-to-last in cash spending for the 2024, 2025 and 2026 seasons. It’s a prove-it year in New England, and all Bill Belichick’s front office has proven since the end of last season is they – or perhaps owner Robert Kraft – are more patient and frugal than their frustrated fanbase.

The question is: why? What are the Patriots waiting for? Why aren’t they exhausting more resources to build a roster that can reach the championship standard the team established for two decades and claims to be pursuing now?

Basically, who are they planning to pay?

Considering the barren free-agent market, start with the players inside the building.

Six of the Pats’ projected starters are entering contract years, and a seventh – outside linebacker Matt Judon – not only wants his deal reworked, but deserves it. Patriots director of player personnel Matt Groh said this week the front office annually engages with players entering the last seasons of their deals, something edge rusher Josh Uche separately confirmed Thursday.

It’s a safe bet the Patriots have spoken with safety Kyle Dugger as well, considering Belichick went on the record Thursday saying safeties of Dugger’s caliber “end up getting a lot of money.” As for those talks, it’s another safe bet the Patriots have lowballed Dugger.

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Lowballing is common practice in New England and, generally speaking, smart business. If a player bites on an initial, team-friendly offer, the Patriots have all but guaranteed they will squeeze value from that contract and save money to invest elsewhere. If not, the negotiations continue, and the team can still come up from its initial offer to find a middle ground later midseason or perhaps next spring.

However, there is a real risk to this approach, which can intensify with time.

The longer a front office lowballs a player, he or his agents can take that offer as a personal affront, especially when they know the Patriots are swimming in cash and cap room. Sometimes, this can even translate into a tax for front offices who must pay an unhappy agency or player more than expected after said player thrives in his contract year. And lowballing can damage relationships with those parties, which later affects future negotiations.

Because while cheapness in the eyes of fans and media is a competitive sin, to players and agents, it's worse. That's money out of their pockets and a waste of their time. It's both personal and bad business.

Furthermore, the Patriots are no longer contenders, meaning the baked-in leverage they always enjoyed at the negotiating table is now gone. They can no longer bank on players signing for less to win a Super Bowl. Their bet now is players will stay because they either enjoy the grind or they like it here.

Asked why the Patriots are still a free-agent destination, Groh basically said two things Wednesday: outside free agents know they work hard in New England, and current Patriots will find it hard to leave because they've been "institutionalized." Sound fun?

"Because I think guys who love football know that this is a place for guys who love football," Groh began Wednesday. "There are guys out there that like to work, that like to put in the time. ... Just like it would be difficult for me to go somewhere else and have to adapt to that culture, you know, once you’re institutionalized. It’s tough."

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The thing is, it's easier to leave when you feel unappreciated. Just ask Tom Brady. For most players, appreciation is best expressed through dollars and cents, something Judon illustrated when answering a question about the recent extension fellow Pro Bowl pass rusher Trey Hendrickson received in Cincinnati.

"For him to get paid, and for his organization to realize, like, ‘We want to keep this guy around here for longer,’ that’s good for him as a friend and as a brother to me," Judon said Friday. "I’m happy for Trey."

A day earlier, Uche repeated multiple times he will go "where he's wanted." Uche also claimed he would "love" to stay in New England long-term, just as Dugger did. Perhaps that's true, and maybe the Patriots' bets will pay off without having to pay open-market prices for either player, meaning all this outside angst will prove to be just that - angst.

Except, as far as players' comments are concerned, it behooves Uche and Dugger to publicly claim they want to stay so outside bidders are incentivized to offer more money to persuade them to leave come free agency. This isn't to doubt either player's honesty - it's only to ask what would Dugger and/or Uche say if they wanted to leave but also maximize their earnings through a future bidding war? Probably the same thing.

Keeping all that in mind, extending your best players is the best type of business for an NFL front office. There are compromises to be struck between the Patriots and these players, many of whom could be core pieces for the franchise moving forward. It benefits all parties to come to the table and leave with fresh contracts.

Here are three basic outlines of new deals for Judon, Dugger and Uche, following the same factors that shape most NFL contracts: traditional statistical production, age, market rate for players of similar players at their position and draft status.

There are several options on the table for the Patriots to fairly compensate their best player (guaranteeing more of his 2023 base salary, increasing his 2023 or 2024 salary without additional guarantees or adding incentives).

Patriots star Matthew Judon sacks Sam Ehlinger of the Indianapolis Colts during the first half of a Nov. 6, 2022 game at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro. (Staff Photo By Matt Stone/MediaNews Group/Boston Herald)

Patriots star Matthew Judon sacks Sam Ehlinger of the Indianapolis Colts during the first half of a Nov. 6, 2022 game at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro. (Staff Photo By Matt Stone/MediaNews Group/Boston Herald)

But under this scenario, they follow the example Cincinnati set with Hendrickson, as another franchise that almost never extends players with two-plus years remaining on their contract. Hendrickson's deal is a reasonable comparison for Judon, given they play the same position, signed four-year deals as free agents in 2021 and have produced similarly (Hendrickson has 35.5 sacks the past three years to Judon's 34). The difference lies in age.

Judon will turn 31 this summer, and Hendrickson will be 29 in December. Therefore, Judon receives $4 million less than Hendrickson, but the same guaranteed money to keep his compensation in line with the present market. Judon's extra $8 million in guarantees also take the form of a signing bonus, just like Hendrickson's.

If the Patriots extend Judon an extra season, they can spread his $8 million signing bonus over three years on their books as opposed to the two remaining on his current contract. An extra year would also mean job security for Judon, who is on the record multiple times stating he wants to retire in New England. He's become a cornerstone of their locker room, their defense and clearly out-performed his contract.

Age is an issue. It's difficult to believe Judon will top his 15.5 sacks from a year ago at 31, and his best pass-rushing days are likely behind him. Belichick faithfully abides by a pillar of Bill Walsh's roster-building philosophy with the 49ers of the 1980s: it's better to release a player too early than a year too late.

Matthew Judon explains early limitations in Patriots training camp

Why extend a player already under contract for two more years that should cover the back end of his prime?

Additionally, when Judon's camp approached the Pats about revising his deal - which has only $2.5 million guaranteed remaining - talks reportedly ended quickly. That indicates the Pats don't intend to budge on because, frankly, they don't have to. Judon's only recourse is a hold-in, and he doesn't seem to have a strong appetite for that, per The Athletic.

The template here should be Budda Baker's four-year, $59 million contract from 2020.

Baker, like Dugger, is a 27-year-old, former second-round pick who ranks among the best box safeties in the NFL. He's far out-paced Dugger from an accolades standpoint, earning five Pro Bowl nods and making two All-Pro teams over his career. However, Dugger has created one more turnover than Baker has the past two seasons and will sign his second contract in a market with a much higher salary cap ($198.2 million at the time Baker signed in 2020 to a projected $256 million in 2024).

Cap inflation should help offset at least some of the difference between both players' production to date, though the Patriots guarantee roughly the same percentage of Dugger's total money here as Baker received (55% to 56%) before getting a small bump this summer. The Pats also offer one fewer year considering Dugger will hit the market at 27, whereas Baker did when he was 25.

Start with this: Belichick is on the record saying players of Dugger's caliber earn a lot of money. Dugger could establish himself as the Patriots' best defender this season with a career year. He is an uncommonly skilled player within a unique defensive system, and has elevated his playmaking (eight turnovers the past two seasons), which was the last step in his development toward potential stardom.

The Patriots also have a history of paying safeties, ranking in the top half of safety spending in eight of the past 11 seasons.

Dugger could and should dig his heels in.

At 27 years old, his next contract projects to be the last big deal of his career. It's conceivable Dugger's camp's starting point could be $15 or $16 million per season, and their demands will be met. His agency, Athletes First, is among the most powerful in the league with a long history of difficult negotiations with the Patriots.

New England Patriots safety Kyle Dugger runs a fumble recovery back for a touchdown during the second quarter of an Oct. 9, 2022 game against the Detroit Lions in Foxboro. (Staff Photo By Nancy Lane/MediaNews Group/Boston Herald)

New England Patriots safety Kyle Dugger runs a fumble recovery back for a touchdown during the second quarter of an Oct. 9, 2022 game against the Detroit Lions in Foxboro. (Staff Photo By Nancy Lane/MediaNews Group/Boston Herald)

If Dugger doesn't secure the deal he wants in New England, he should find it in Las Vegas or another market led by ex-Patriots coaches and staffers who would happily add a rising defensive star.

Uche's next contract is the most difficult projection on this list.

Yes, he established himself as one of the most dangerous pass rushers in the league last year with 12.5 sacks and an absurd 15% pressure rate, per Pro Football Focus. But Uche earned seven of those sacks feasting on the offensive carcasses of the sub-.500 Jets, Colts and Cardinals. Uche also hasn't played more than 38% of the Pats' defensive snaps in a single season, and remains a highly skilled, yet limited, player.

The good news for Uche, 24, is edge rushers typically earn a higher percentage of guaranteed money with their base salaries than players at other positions.

Here, he lands a shorter version of Romeo Okwara's deal with the Lions in 2021, a three-year, $37 million pact including $25 million guaranteed. Okwara was an undersized edge rusher coming off a 10-sack season then. At age 24, Eagles defensive Josh Sweat also signed a three-year, $40 million extension that season with $26.92 million guaranteed.

As Uche said Thursday, he would "love" to remain in New England. And while his playing time may be limited, the snaps he does play are high-leverage moments that can swing a game: third downs, two-minute drills and other passing situations.

Think of any 3-point specialist in the NBA. He may carry a narrow skill set, but that skill is highly valuable and his mere presence helps creates opportunities for teammates because he demands opponents' attention play after play. The same goes for Uche.

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Uche is the exact type of player to be coveted by franchises running four-down defenses that allow their defensive ends to pin their ears back and chase quarterbacks. The Pats could easily get outbid ahead of free agency this winter. Plus, before Judon's free-agent deal in 2021, the Patriots had shown little willingness to pay top dollar for edge rushers, and they may have drafted his replacement in second-round rookie Keion White.

The Pats also can't pay Uche more than Judon. So if Judon remains in New England, the ceiling for the average annual value of Uche's next contract will be whatever Judon makes. Pending an extension or small pay raise, that likely puts Uche in the $10-12 million per year range.

Veteran players were required to report to Patriots training camp on Tuesday this week, the day before the team's opening practice. Before they took the field for their conditioning tests, they sat for a morning meeting when sixth-year linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley was allowed to address the entire team.

Bentley, a former team captain who signed a two-year extension in June, implored his teammates to focus on the present and their purpose after a lost season of 2022. Pats captain Matthew Slater relayed his message Tuesday afternoon in a press conference, saying: “Ja’Whaun said it best today as he talked to the guys – ‘whatever happened in the past, whatever happened in the spring, it doesn’t matter. We’re here now. We have a goal in mind, and we have to work and sacrifice to get towards that goal.' I thought it was very well said by him. We understand why we’re here.”

That same day, Belichick touted Bentley's leadership and communication. But his highest praise came after the team's first practice Wednesday when, in a sit-down with Patriots radio color commentator Scott Zolak, Belichick compared Bentley's development to that of Vince Wilfork, Tedy Bruschi and Rob Gronkoski. He also called Bentley "a little bit of the pulse of the team."

The New England Patriots have signed linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley to a reworked three-year deal that keeps the 26-year-old under contract through 2025. (Staff Photo By Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

The New England Patriots have signed linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley to a reworked three-year deal that keeps the 26-year-old under contract through 2025. (Staff Photo By Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

As for the man himself, Bentley, 26, said Tuesday that focusing on the present moment is a common message for him as a leader.

"There’s going to be a lot of stuff going on – speaking on the past, speaking on the future, but none of that matters. You just have to be where your feet are," he said. "That’s pretty much the message and my message at all times – you have to focus on the main thing.”