It’s been three months since the Patriots punctuated their disappointing, dysfunctional and downright rotten 2022 campaign.
What have they done to bolster their roster since then?
Re-sign most of their defensive free agents, rebuild their offensive tackle depth and make non-trivial upgrades at their skill positions. But will those moves be enough to make the playoffs? What comes next in the draft? And how big is the gap between the Pats and the rest of the AFC East?
The Herald posed those questions and more to an NFL front-office executive deeply familiar with the Patriots who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
The resulting Q&A has been edited for brevity and clarity.
Q: What is your overall impression of the Patriots’ offseason?
NFL executive: “They obviously targeted offense and wanted to upgrade their weapons, which was smart. They did lose Jakobi (Meyers), and I think he’s a good player, but he’s not a great player. Though I think the same of JuJu (Smith-Schuster) — I think he’s better than Jakobi, but not by some huge gap. So it was a little surprising that they picked him over Jakobi for the same money essentially. But I don’t know what’s going on inside of the building, as far as if there were other issues.”
Q: In your opinion, how much of an upgrade, if any, is JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki over Jakobi Meyers and Jonnu Smith?
“Gesicki is definitely an upgrade over Jonnu. He gives them a little bit more of a vertical threat down the middle of the field, where Mac (Jones) thrives. But it all depends on how they use him. Miami didn’t get much out of Gesicki last year because he’s not a tight end for the Shanahan offense, like George Kittle was for Mike McDaniel back in San Francisco. The year before, we gave (Gesicki) a lot of attention, whereas this season teams knew he wasn’t gonna get targets.
“Now, Bill O’Brien has got a track record of using guys to their strengths, so it won’t shock me if they feature him a little bit more than he was featured in Miami last year.”
Q: Did the Patriots signing Gesicki, James Robinson, Riley Reiff and Calvin Anderson to 1-year deals or 2-year contracts with an easy out after the first year indicate anything to you?
“I don’t think it says anything. I think that’s traditionally been the Patriots’ way, except for the one year where they went out and got Hunter Henry and Matt Judon and everybody else. They haven’t been massive spenders in free agency. So I think that’s a little bit par for the course, even after down years, that they target guys at good value when they have a good vision for how they’re going to use them.”
Q: Did you have any other takeaways from how the Patriots have retooled offensively?
“I mean from the reports, it sounds like there’s a possibility that Belichick doesn’t believe in Mac. So, you know, that may be why they’re not making big splashy moves because they don’t think they have the guy. I don’t know that. That may just be coincidental, for all I know. But I know for other teams, it’s all about putting weapons around their guy as best they can. And I think that every team tries to do that, and I think the Patriots think they did with Gesicki, but it’s a little hard to say because it was a weird free agency. There were a lot of guys like him that didn’t get good money like they thought they were gonna get.”
Q: The Patriots re-signed virtually every in-house free agent they had on defense. Do they have enough returning talent to bank on fielding another elite defense next year?
“I think that they’re probably banking on the fact that their defense is going to be good enough. Not that they’re not going to be dominant, but that it’ll be good enough to win games. Because hiring O’Brien and going offense-heavy in free agency, they have to expect they’ll score more points, and that should mean winning some games with their offense for the first time in a while.”
Q: What do you expect from them in the draft?
“No idea. But, look, any time you can add somebody that a team is forced to game plan for, that’s what you’re after. You want as many of those players as you can get.”
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Q: Has the Patriots' offseason to date changed your outlook for them next season?
"I think that they got a little bit more vertical in the passing game with (Smith-Schuster and Gesicki), but I still don't necessarily know if my overarching impressions of their issues have changed all that much. I don't think that they're particularly explosive on offense, and defensively, they don't have a lot of playmakers -- outside of (Matt) Judon -- that you really fear. Like you go to Miami, an offensive team, they've got Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard and you've gotta plan around them.
"There's not a lot in New England that I say, 'Hey, watch out for that.' Now obviously, they're well-coached, and they do a good job, but I just think that the talent threats are still not to the level of Buffalo or the Dolphins or the Jets."
Q: So, do you expect them to finish fourth in the AFC East?
"It's hard to say they're gonna finish fourth because they just never have. But I mean, the talent gap is still pretty significant between even them and the Jets and the Dolphins. Now whether they finish fourth or not, who knows? Because Miami's got injury issues at quarterback and the Jets don't have a quarterback as of today. But if Aaron Rodgers goes through, then, you know, the Jets would clearly have a better top to bottom roster than New England."