


Televised presidential debates during the general election are viewed as the ultimate candidate showcase. They give voters the opportunity to watch competing worldviews and policy positions clash on America’s most significant political stage. Viewers get to test their assumptions about the candidates in real-time.
Voters want to know how a potential commander in chief will perform in the face of adversity, and facing off against the other party’s nominee and hostile moderators is a great test.
But do this cycle’s primary debates provide that same value? There is a fair argument to make that the answer is no.
Because the candidates’ policy positions from either party are often similar, primary debates are much less about policy and overwhelmingly about character and personalities. In the modern era, the best debaters rarely go on to secure the nomination.
Nobody will accuse George W. Bush or Mitt Romney of being debate-club presidents, and John McCain’s performances were often viewed as less than stellar. And yet these men won the GOP nominations in 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012.
But this is the era of Donald Trump. Primary debates have become about the spectacle: the performative clashes, the personalities and the snappy comebacks, which many believe sealed Trump’s nomination. Clashes between candidates are amplified and played out in the 24-hour news cycle and continuously replayed on social media. Indeed, some political professionals believe debates are no longer about winning the night but, instead, winning the “meme” — creating social media moments that will get shared from voter to voter. This has changed debates, where voters watch candidates take shots at one another rather than informing themselves about policy or leadership potential.
And in 2024, there is already a clear frontrunner — Trump.
Although he may not be physically present — “Will he or won’t he” is the most critical debate question and the candidates haven’t even taken the stage — Trump’s influence hangs heavy over the debate stage.
With Trump leaps and bounds ahead of the crowded Republican field, these primary debates are poised to focus on Trump himself and efforts to overtake his lead rather than the Republican platform for the 2024 election. This will further eliminate what little policy conversations may have otherwise snuck through the cracks.
Trump’s solid lead in the Republican primary and constant domination of the news coverage have forced other candidates to seek ways to reach voters outside the traditional news outlets — and changed the significance of presidential primary debates in the 2024 cycle.
The proliferation of social media and digital communications provides more direct and unfiltered avenues to reach voters than a crowded debate stage. Further, Trump’s domination in various polls and nearly all news coverage — and the lack of a clear second-place candidate — may be a harbinger of the continued decrease in the significance of primary debates in the 2024 cycle.
Ryan Munce is president and managing partner at co/efficient, one of America’s leading political polling firms/InsideSources