The Red Sox are pretty much cooked.
After giving up another late lead on Aaron Judge’s go-ahead grand slam Friday night, the Red Sox fell back to .500 and saw their playoff odds drop to just 2.9% according to FanGraphs. That’s their lowest mark of the season, and with two weeks remaining the Red Sox have basically run out of time and room for error.
Still, 2.9% isn’t zero, so does an improbable path to the playoffs still exist? Yes, but at this point Boston is going to need a lot of help, especially now that they’ve been passed in the standings by both the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners.
Whether Boston factors into the equation or not, there is shaping up to be an exciting race for the last American League Wild Card spots. Here’s a look at each contender, their remaining schedules after this weekend and how their odds stack up. All playoff odds are current as of Saturday.
Remaining schedule: Tigers x3, Giants x3, at Nationals x3, at Braves x3
A month ago the Red Sox and Royals both had basically 50-50 odds to make the playoffs. Now the Royals are essentially a lock, and Red Sox fans should probably be rooting for the Royals to run up the score as much as possible at this point. Specifically, the Red Sox should hope the Royals sweep the Tigers, because that would help solve one of Boston’s biggest problems and put them back in a position where it might be possible for them to control their own destiny.
Remaining schedule: at Guardians x4, at Red Sox x3, Marlins x3, Orioles x3
The Twins are nominally the team Boston needs to catch as the third Wild Card club, and as luck would have it the two teams will meet at Fenway Park for a late-season three-game series next weekend. If the Red Sox want to have any shot at making the playoffs, they need to sweep the Twins, but at this point even that probably won’t be enough. Fortunately Minnesota also has difficult series against the Guardians and Orioles remaining on the docket too, and considering the Twins’ recent struggles it’s not crazy to imagine the club could endure what would have to be among the most painful late-season collapses in recent memory.
Remaining schedule: at Royals x3, at Orioles x3, Rays x3, White Sox x3
At one point the Tigers’ odds fell as low as 0.2%, and while their chances still aren’t great, they’ve played themselves back into a position where a postseason berth is realistic. As of this writing Detroit is the first team below the playoff cutline, but the Tigers have a very difficult week coming up with series against the Royals and Orioles. If they can survive that stretch, however, the last week will be much easier by comparison. Detroit’s last series is against the woeful White Sox, so if the Tigers keep winning and the Twins keep stumbling, it could make for a very interesting final weekend.
Remaining schedule: Yankees x3, at Rangers x3, at Astros x3, Athletics x3
If the Tigers aren’t able to keep afloat, perhaps the Mariners could. Seattle has a similar schedule down the stretch as Detroit with two difficult series and two comparatively winnable ones, including a season-ending homestand against the Athletics. Difficult as it is for Red Sox fans to ever root for the Yankees, they should probably hope for a Yankees sweep this week to get the Mariners out of the picture as quickly as possible.
Remaining schedule: at Rays x3, Twins x3, at Blue Jays x3, Rays x3
So you’re telling me there’s a chance? Well, the Red Sox odds may be a little better than one in a million, but at this point the club is going to have to thread a needle so narrow it’s not realistic. But if the Red Sox are going to make this playoffs, this is what’s going to have to happen. Sweep the Twins, and win or sweep all three other series. Doing that would get the Red Sox to around 84 wins, which is probably the lowest win total that could potentially do the trick. In addition, the club should hope the Guardians take at least three of four from the Twins, the Royals sweep the Tigers, and the Yankees sweep the Mariners over the next week. If those things happen, then we could still look up on Friday with the Red Sox back within striking distance of the playoffs and the Twins coming to town. But anything short of that, Boston will pretty much be stuck playing out the string.
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