Earlier this week Toronto Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s self-imposed deadline for contract negotiations came and went, and the sides were not able to reach an agreement to keep the four-time All-Star in Canada for the long haul.
Barring an unexpected breakthrough, Guerrero should now hit the open market as a free agent this coming winter.
Almost as soon as word broke that there would be no long-term deal, reports began surfacing that the Red Sox could be Guerrero’s preferred destination. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that Guerrero has told friends he’d love to play in Boston, and similar rumors have swirled throughout the offseason.
Landing a talent like Guerrero would be an enormous, franchise-altering acquisition, but making the move wouldn’t be as simple as Craig Breslow snapping his fingers. There are significant pros and cons to consider, along with other factors that would need to be addressed as well.
Is a marriage between Guerrero and the Red Sox actually possible? Would it even be a good idea?
Let’s start with the money. Guerrero reportedly turned down an extension offer worth $340 million earlier this winter, which by itself would have been the largest contract in Red Sox history. Presumably any team that wants Guerrero will have to offer much more, perhaps somewhere north of $400 million.
Given that Guerrero turns 26 in March and will be 27 by the time his contract starts, it’s a safe bet he’ll also command at least 10 years. So do the math and you’re looking at potentially $40 million per year if you go 10 years, $400 million. Maybe you can cut the average annual value down by adding more years or including a lot of deferred money, but no matter how you slice it, signing Guerrero would be a significant investment.
In the short term the Red Sox could accommodate a big signing like that without much hassle. Between Walker Buehler ($21.05 million), Lucas Giolito ($19.25 million), Aroldis Chapman ($10.75 million), Liam Hendriks ($5 million), Justin Wilson ($2.25 million) and Rob Refsnyder ($1.95 million) — all of whom are due to hit free agency next winter — the Red Sox will have close to $60 million coming off the books. That number could wind up closer to $100 million if Alex Bregman and Trevor Story exercise their opt outs as well.
But as far as a long-term investment, and taking roster considerations into account, things become more complicated.
Guerrero is a corner infielder who primarily plays first base after starting his big league career at third, and who may eventually shift into a permanent DH role as he ages into his mid-to-late 30s. Sound familiar? The Red Sox already have a player who fits a similar description in Rafael Devers, and having both on the two largest contracts in team history would be somewhat redundant.
The Red Sox also have a young up-and-comer at first base in Triston Casas, who they would probably have to trade to make any kind of arrangement with Guerrero work. Casas has already been subject to numerous trade rumors, but if he stays healthy this season and goes off for 30 or 40 home runs, the idea of moving him for anyone probably won’t be very appealing.
On top of all that, Masataka Yoshida still has another two years left on his deal and Bregman could easily decide to play out his contract. Between those two, Devers and Casas, the Red Sox are going to have a hard enough time finding a spot for everyone they already have, and that’s before even taking guys like Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer into account.
Guerrero is obviously the kind of talent where you’d figure something out. He’s a four-time All-Star and a two-time Silver Slugger winner coming off a season in which he batted .323 with 30 home runs, 103 RBI, a .940 OPS and 6.2 wins above replacement. He’s one of the best players in the majors, and if the Red Sox were to get him he’d immediately elevate the lineup into one of the most formidable in baseball.
Maybe we’ll look up a year from now and signing Guerrero will be a no-brainer. Maybe the Red Sox will look at their roster and decide their money would be better spent elsewhere. Either way, Guerrero’s time in Toronto may be running out, and Red Sox fans will want to pay close attention once he hits the open market.
After several years of testing in the minors, baseball’s automated ball-strike system is ready for its big league debut.
The ABS system, which utilizes an electronic strike zone to determine whether a pitch was a ball or a strike, will be used in select games across Florida and Arizona throughout spring training. It will not be used at JetBlue Park, but the Red Sox will get a look during several of their road games over the next five weeks.
The spring introduction will effectively serve as a final test run before the system’s full implementation in the majors. If all goes well, the ABS system could be introduced in MLB as early as next season.
First used in the independent Atlantic League in 2019, there have been two versions of the ABS system tested over the past five years. One used ABS on every pitch, with the system relaying the call to the home plate umpire, who would then signal “ball” or “strike” in real time. The other is a challenge system where the home plate umpire calls pitches like normal, but teams have the ability to challenge calls they disagree with.
The challenge system has proven more popular, and that’s the version now being tested with big leaguers.
Under the rules being tested this spring, teams will get two challenges each. Challenges can be made by the batter, pitcher or catcher — and no one else — and must be issued immediately after the umpire’s call with no assistance from the manager or dugout.
If a player issues a challenge, the ABS view of the pitch and the call is shown on the video board for everyone in the stadium and on the TV broadcast for viewers watching at home. The entire process typically only takes a few seconds and is similar to the challenge process used in high-level professional tennis.
Since successful challenges are retained, a team could theoretically issue as many challenges as it wants if it got them all right. But with only two to work with at the start of each game, clubs also need to be strategic about which calls might warrant another look and which ones they’re better off letting go. Otherwise a team could burn all of its challenges early and be stuck without one at a crucial point later on.
That element of strategy is among the reasons why the challenge system won out over full ABS, along with the fact that it’s essentially a middle ground between the traditional approach and the modern innovation. The human element is retained, subtle nuances like pitch framing by catchers is preserved, and now players have an avenue to correct missed calls in a way that won’t disrupt the flow of a game.
Maybe that might mean fewer blowups and animated on-field arguments, but getting more calls right is something everyone should support.
Hot Stove Cool Music, co-founded by longtime baseball writer Peter Gammons and supported by Red Sox executive Theo Epstein and The Foundation To Be Named Later, will celebrate its 25th anniversary with a concert headlined by Cheap Trick at The Paradise on Saturday, April 12.
The 25th anniversary concert will also feature performances by Greg Hawkes from The Cars, as well as a set by the Hot Stove All-Stars, including Gammons, Epstein, Kay Hanley (Letters to Cleo), Bill Janovitz, Celtics owner Wyc Grousbeck, Will Dailey and Mike Gent (The Figgs). NESN’s Tom Caron and Lenny DiNardo will emcee the event.
General admission tickets are available for $125, with all proceeds supporting FTBNL’s Peter Gammons College Scholarships. VIP tickets are also available and can be purchased at www.ftbnl.org.