Think back to the offseason and how much was made of the big signings that seemed to come one after another.
It felt like every other day the New York Mets or San Diego Padres were handing out another record-setting contract, and across the sport teams were extending themselves to make aggressive moves they felt could help get them over the hump.
Meanwhile, fans who believed their clubs weren’t doing enough — Red Sox fans among them — grew more frustrated by the day.
Looking back, you would have thought the big spenders’ championship success was preordained, but six months later the baseball landscape looks a lot different.
Simply put, no matter how good the roster may appear, baseball games aren’t won on paper, and the clubs who made the biggest splashes are learning the hard way as reality often hasn’t lived up to those lofty expectations.
As we near the season’s halfway point, most of the clubs that “won the offseason” have fallen far short of expectations. Quite a few of the biggest free agent signings haven’t worked out, and many of the top performing teams entered the season with comparatively little fanfare.
Look no further than the star-studded Mets and Padres, who were riding high into the season as presumed championship favorites but who have massively underachieved. Boasting baseball’s No. 1 and 3 payrolls, the Mets and Padres entered the weekend with losing records and sat fourth in their respective divisions.
Imagine telling someone that would be the case in early February? Or that the Red Sox would have a better record than both?
There’ve been plenty of reasons for the two clubs’ failure, but a big one has been many of their celebrated acquisitions haven’t panned out.
The Mets’ biggest free agent signing, future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, has not pitched like the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. Verlander missed the first month after suffering a shoulder strain just prior to Opening Day, and since returning he’s been decidedly average, going 2-4 with a 4.50 ERA.
The Padres pitching has been good, but several of San Diego’s big stars haven’t carried their weight. Specifically, free agent shortstop Xander Bogaerts has only hit .224 with a .617 OPS since the start of May, and third baseman Manny Machado has delivered below-average offensive production since signing a $350 million extension prior to the season.
While not as attention-grabbing as those two clubs, the Philadelphia Phillies also made a series of aggressive moves to take the next step after reaching last fall’s World Series, many of which have fallen flat.
Despite boasting MLB’s fourth highest payroll, the Phillies have spent most of the season under .500 and are currently third in the NL East. Big ticket acquisition Trea Turner, who signed an 11-year, $300 million contract this past December, is only hitting .244 with a .675 OPS, both by far the worst totals of his career.
The Yankees are doing well by comparison in the win column, but they’ve still drawn plenty of grumbles from the Bronx faithful. New York is currently a distant third behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East, and while Aaron Judge has played at an MVP level since re-signing with the Yankees, he’s also now on the IL for the second time this season and there’s no indication of when he’ll return.
Not helping matters is the fact that top outside addition Carlos Rodon, who was expected to form a dominant 1-2 punch with ace Gerrit Cole, has yet to make his season debut due to a forearm strain.
Even some contending clubs have suffered costly missteps. The Texas Rangers bet the house on Jacob deGrom, who lasted only six starts into his five-year, $185 million contract before breaking down and needing Tommy John surgery.
They should thank their lucky stars they also signed Nathan Eovaldi, who has picked up the torch and played a pivotal role in leading the Rangers back into first in the AL West.
Slugger Jose Abreu, who signed with the Houston Astros despite interest from the Red Sox, has been a colossal bust. His -1.1 WAR is tied for second worst in baseball by a player with 200 or more plate appearances, and he’s only managed four home runs and a .587 OPS, horrible figures for a player expected to anchor the middle of the Astros’ order.
The Red Sox took a lot of heat after failing to sign Abreu, but they came out ahead by pivoting to Justin Turner.
That so many big spenders have face-planted stands in stark contrast to the success enjoyed by what feels like an unusually large number of small-market clubs. You have a few dregs like the Oakland Athletics and Kansas City Royals, yes, but out of MLB’s 10 lowest spending teams, five are currently in playoff position and a sixth (Cleveland) is only two games back.
The Tampa Bay Rays, who had an aggressive winter by their standards but who hardly blew the ceiling off the free agent market, are currently on a 109-win pace. The Baltimore Orioles may also top 100 wins despite barely making a ripple this past offseason, and the Arizona Diamondbacks, Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds have all roared into contention far ahead of schedule despite effectively being afterthoughts entering the year.
Does that mean money doesn’t matter and wealthy clubs don’t have an advantage? No, but it should be a lesson that offseason narratives don’t always hold up, and when a rival club buys a shiny new toy it doesn’t always wind up becoming the coveted treasure it was marketed as.
Speaking of smaller-market success stories, what the Cincinnati Reds are accomplishing deserves special recognition.
Compared to the Rays, Orioles and Diamondbacks, who were on some level expected to break through, the Reds have come completely out of left field. Simply put, this wasn’t supposed to happen, at least not so soon.
Last season the Reds were dead as a doornail. They inexplicably stripped their roster despite contending in a weak division the year prior, and after starting 3-22 they slogged through a painful 100-loss campaign. Relations between the club’s fans and owner Bob Castellini are as fraught as any in baseball outside of Oakland, and it didn’t seem like this year was going to bring any kind of improvement.
And yet now the Reds are on fire, entering the weekend on a 12-game win streak that has propelled them from six games below .500 to first place in the NL Central.
Cincinnati’s resurgence has come thanks in large part to an impressive wave of young talent that has reached the majors over the past month or so. Rookies Matt McLain and Spencer Steer helped spark the turnaround, which was then supercharged by the arrival of Elly de la Cruz, baseball’s No. 1 prospect and an athletic marvel capable of running faster and hitting/throwing the ball harder than anyone else in the game.
How awesome is Elly? He’s already hit three home runs, stolen seven bases, scored 17 runs, batted .361 and on Friday he hit for the cycle in only his 15th career game, helping the Reds top the Atlanta Braves in a thrilling come from behind win.
The Reds also just welcomed back franchise icon Joey Votto, who homered in his season debut after missing the first two months with a shoulder injury in one of the best feel-good moments of the year. Votto went deep twice on Friday.
It’s been a long time since the Reds were relevant. Since winning their last World Series title in 1990 the Reds have won four division titles and made five postseason appearances, winning a grand total of five playoff games in the process. They’ve finished no higher than third in the NL Central over the past 10 seasons, yet now they’ve gone from an also-ran to one of baseball’s most exciting stories in the blink of an eye.
Should Alex Verdugo be an All-Star? He may not be a slam dunk, but he definitely at least deserves to be in the conversation.
As of this writing the Red Sox outfielder leads all AL outfielders in hits (86), doubles (24) and triples (4), ranks second in wins above replacement (2.9) and runs scored (51), third in batting average (.303) and sixth in OPS (.843). His defense and base running have notably improved, and he has emerged as one of Boston’s most impactful all-around players.
And yet when MLB announced its All-Star finalists, Verdugo wasn’t just out of the running, he didn’t even finish among the top 20 AL outfielders.
Verdugo’s disappointing showing on the ballot reflects poorly on both the Red Sox get-out-the-vote efforts and on fan enthusiasm. It wasn’t long ago when average or even undeserving Red Sox players routinely finished among the top All-Star vote-getters just through the sheer size and muscle of Red Sox Nation, but now even good-to-great Red Sox players are getting swamped by other club’s voters.
Case in point, the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers.
Blue Jays and Rangers fans have sent a combined 10 players through to the finals, with six others finishing within striking distance. The finalists for second base, shortstop and third base are both from the Blue Jays and Rangers, and the only position where neither had a finalist was designated hitter, and that’s only because Shohei Ohtani won an automatic starting berth by winning the most votes in the AL. Otherwise Toronto’s Brandon Belt would have advanced as the runner-up as well.
While those clubs cleaned up, the Red Sox didn’t even sniff a starting nod.
Rafael Devers, Boston’s highest-profile player who has started the last two All-Star Games at third base, finished fourth among AL third baseman. He was a distant third behind Toronto’s Matt Chapman and Texas rookie Josh Jung in the first two updates, and he was ultimately surpassed by Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez as well.
Masataka Yoshida, who finished eighth among AL outfielders, was the only other Red Sox player to gain any traction. Justin Turner was a distant eighth at DH, Kiké Hernández finished 10th among shortstops, and Verdugo and catcher Connor Wong — arguably two of Boston’s most deserving candidates — didn’t appear on the leaderboard at all.
The Red Sox are guaranteed to have at least one All-Star selected among the pitchers and reserves, but the results of this year’s vote is still a bad look. While the All-Star vote is ultimately a popularity contest, it’s still an indicator of a club’s star power and fan enthusiasm, and right now the Red Sox are sorely lacking in both.
After missing nearly two months with a thumb injury, Lexington’s Sal Frelick is back from the injured list and has resumed his push towards a potential big league call-up with the Milwaukee Brewers.
A former Boston College star, Frelick was Milwaukee’s first-round draft pick in 2021 and has enjoyed a meteoric rise through the Brewers system. He has a .324 career average in the minor leagues and batted .365 in 46 games with the Nashville Sounds upon his promotion to Triple-A last summer, and during spring training he batted leadoff for Team Italy in the World Baseball Classic.
Frelick likely would have already been called up if not for his injury, which occurred on April 18 while sliding into a base. Brewers manager Craig Counsell indicated recently that he wants Frelick to get some at bats before he’ll be considered for the big league roster, but considering that Frelick is 8 for 26 (.308) over his first seven games back, it’s not hard to imagine the local standout getting his big shot sooner rather than later.