


FORT MYERS, Fla. — After an interminable offseason marked by frustration, inactivity and a lot of waiting, baseball is finally underway. It’s been more than two weeks since pitchers and catchers reported to Red Sox camp, and over that time we’ve finally gotten a chance to see this year’s team in action.
So what have we learned? Have the Red Sox adequately addressed their weaknesses from last year? Are there any players who could be in line for a breakout? And most important, is the team going to be any good? We won’t know for sure until after Opening Day, but for now here are 10 takeaways from the first two weeks of Red Sox camp.
The biggest unanswered question regarding the Opening Day roster is whether or not Ceddanne Rafaela will be on it. Red Sox manager Alex Cora has said the 23-year-old rookie is a contender to be Boston’s starting center fielder, and if he wins the job it could have a significant domino effect on how the rest of the roster comes together.
First, Jarren Duran would likely bump to one of the corner outfield spots, which in turn would affect Tyler O’Neill or rookie Wilyer Abreu’s playing time. Bench outfielder Rob Refsnyder could be a potential roster casualty in that case as well, or the Red Sox might end up trading one of their more established options to clear space for the kids.
Regardless of what else happens, no other roster decision will be more consequential than this.
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Assuming Rafaela does not win the starting center field job, and barring any last-minute acquisitions, it looks like O'Neill will be the club's everyday left fielder.
So far O'Neill has played with the big league starters in each game he's appeared in, and in each of those outings he's started in left. Cora said he plans to play O'Neill there almost exclusively this spring so he can learn how to play the Green Monster, and Masataka Yoshida will instead serve as the primary designated hitter.
Should Rafaela make the team O'Neill could potentially bump to right field, something he said he'd be comfortable doing, but for now he's locked in on left.
It says a lot about Rafael Devers that he could hit 33 home runs with an .851 OPS last season and people think he had a down year. Yet strong as the final totals wound up being, Devers was unusually streaky and prone to long slumps.
One issue in particular was his inability to consistently do damage to the opposite field, but so far this spring he's rediscovered that pop.
Entering the weekend Devers had already hit two home runs through the first week of games, and both were opposite field bombs over JetBlue Park's Green Monster. Being able to use the wall is crucial for any left-handed hitter at Fenway Park, so the fact Devers is already getting results is a great sign.
Though we've seen most of Boston's regulars at least once, Vaughn Grissom remains a man of mystery. The newly acquired second baseman has been held out of game action due to a minor hamstring injury, so we still haven't had a chance to see the 23-year-old's talents on full display.
Now he has a groin strain, leaving his status for Opening Day in doubt.
While with the Braves, Grissom demonstrated tantalizing potential and played well in his limited big league opportunities. He's batted .287 in 64 career MLB games, but he never got consistent playing time thanks to Atlanta's plethora of All-Star infielders. That won't be a problem in Boston, but first he has to get (and stay) healthy, and until that happens the Red Sox will likely have to count on Pablo Reyes or Enmanuel Valdez to man the fort at second base.
Defense was one of Boston's Achilles heels last season, and while the club still has some question marks, the group should be much better as a whole this time around.
Having Trevor Story back and healthy for the entire season will make an enormous difference. He played Gold Glove-caliber defense at shortstop over the final six weeks of 2023 and immediately made everyone else around him better. Story should also make life easier for Devers and Grissom, neither of whom is well regarded as a fielder but who could benefit from his incredible range and athleticism.
Having O'Neill, a two-time Gold Glove winner, swap into the outfield for Yoshida, statistically one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball last year, will also be a big help. No matter how the outfield alignment shakes out, Cora says this year's group will be much more dynamic and athletic, and he also expects improvement from the group's decision-making as well.
Boston's other Achilles heel last season was its starting rotation, and instead of bringing in substantial outside reinforcements to give the group a boost, the Red Sox are instead counting on their young arms to take a step forward.
As of now Lucas Giolito, Nick Pivetta and Brayan Bello are officially in the rotation, leaving everyone else fighting for the last two spots. Kutter Crawford is considered the favorite of that group, and Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Josh Winckowski are the other contenders.
All four turned in strong performances in their first starts of the spring, and it will be interesting to see who can separate themselves as the spring goes on.
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Though new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow hasn't significantly upgraded the starting rotation, he's aggressively bolstered the bullpen and several new additions could make an impact this season.
Barring any additional trades, the bullpen breaks down like this: Kenley Jansen as the closer, Chris Martin as the top set-up man, Brennan Bernardino as the lead left-hander, and two of Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Winckowski as the high-leverage righties.
That leaves three spots, and among the newcomers who could earn a place are Isaiah Campbell, who was acquired from Seattle in exchange for Luis Urias last November; Justin Slaten, a Rule 5 pick acquired in a trade with the Mets; Greg Weissert, one of three pitchers obtained in the Alex Verdugo trade; and Cooper Criswell, one of only two big league free agents the Red Sox signed all winter.
There are also incumbents like Zack Kelly, Chris Murphy and Joe Jacques, plus non-roster arms like Joely Rodriguez, Lucas Luetge and Helcris Olivarez. Any of them could conceivably pitch their way onto the Opening Day roster, and at the very least they should all provide useful depth at Triple-A.
The big wild card in the bullpen is Bryan Mata, a former top pitching prospect who is out of minor league options and must make the Opening Day roster. Mata likely would have had a real shot, but he's been shut down with a hamstring injury and is out indefinitely.
Mata has some of the best stuff in the organization and ideally could have emerged as a dominant bullpen weapon, but injuries and command problems have plagued him throughout his professional career. The Red Sox might be able do delay a decision by placing him on the injured list, but at some point Mata needs to get back on the mound and prove he can be the pitcher the Red Sox always envisioned he could be.
If not, he may have to prove himself someplace else.
Even though we're more than a third of the way through spring training, several noteworthy free agents still remain on the open market. As of this writing that includes top free agent starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell.
Montgomery feels like a natural fit for the Red Sox, and if the club plugged him into the rotation it could significantly raise the group's floor and possibly elevate the club into a Wild Card contender. Cora even acknowledged he held a Zoom meeting with Montgomery shortly before camp opened, and his lingering free agency has loomed like a shadow over Fort Myers.
Could he still wind up in Boston? It feels like a long-shot, but as long as he's still available it can't be ruled out. One way or the other, it'll feel like the Red Sox still have unfinished business as long as he's on the board, so hopefully his saga reaches its conclusion soon.
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We've been hearing for years about how the Red Sox are building towards the future, and this year the pieces of Boston's new young core will really start coming together.
Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Connor Wong, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck, ostensibly some of the club's "older" players, are all only 27. Triston Casas, Brayan Bello and Wilyer Abreu are just 24, and Vaughn Grissom and Ceddanne Rafaela are only 23.
Those 10 players will remain under team control for most of the rest of the decade, as will Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida, who each have four years left on their contracts. With top prospects like Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony and Kyle Teel on the way, the future is beginning to take shape in Boston and this group will soon get its first opportunity to show what it's capable of.