Sunday night the Baseball Hall of Fame’s Classic Baseball Era Committee will convene at the Winter Meetings, and the group will consider eight candidates whose contributions primarily came before 1980 for enshrinement in Cooperstown.
The late Luis Tiant will be among them.
That the former Red Sox great, who died at 83 on Oct. 8, is up for consideration now is bittersweet. Tiant has long been among the Hall of Fame’s most curious omissions, and if he is elected it will be a well-deserved acknowledgement of his status as one of the game’s great pitchers.
It will also be long overdue.
During his time on the main BBWAA ballot Tiant never received more than 30.9% of the vote over 15 years. He hit that high water mark in year one, and for the majority of the time afterwards he was stuck around 10%. While it’s common to see candidates see a surge of support as their eligibility wanes, Tiant never got back above 20%.
Tiant has also been overlooked by past Era Committees on six occasions over the last 20 years as well, most recently in 2018.
But why? His failure to reach 300 wins and his unusual career progression are both likely factors, but it’s clear by any standard that he was among the preeminent starting pitchers of his day, one whose significance has grown with time.
So what’s Tiant’s case?
Over 19 MLB seasons Tiant went 229-172 with a 3.30 ERA, 3,486.1 innings and 2,416 strikeouts. He was a three-time All-Star, finished top-six in the Cy Young vote three times and earned down-ballot MVP consideration four times. He was also a two-time ERA champion, had four 20-win seasons and his 187 complete games and 49 shutouts rank 12th and ninth, respectively, among all pitchers since 1964, Tiant’s rookie year.
That information would have been available to voters throughout his time on the ballot, but today we have access to modern advanced metrics, which also treat Tiant kindly.
His 65.6 wins above replacement is just shy of the average Hall of Fame pitcher (66) and is better than that of Roy Halladay (65.4), Bob Feller (65.1) and Juan Marichal (61.8), among others. He also averaged 5.2 WAR per season over his seven-year peak from 1972-78, which in layman’s terms means he consistently pitched at an All-Star level for a large chunk of the 1970s.
Will this finally be the year Tiant is recognized? Like with BBWAA elections, Tiant needs to earn 75% of the vote to earn induction, which in this case means appearing on 12 of the 16 ballots.
If that happens, what should have been a moment of joy will be marred with sadness. There’s no reason it should have taken this long, and now Tiant won’t be around to experience it for himself. The pain of his loss is also still so fresh, and a posthumous induction would potentially put his family in a difficult and emotional position.
In addition to Tiant, the other candidates on the Classic Era ballot are Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, John Donaldson, Steve Garvey, Vic Harris, Tommy John and Dave Parker. Garvey, John and Parker are living, and the result of the vote will be announced on MLB Network at 7:30 p.m.
Speaking of former Red Sox up for Cooperstown consideration, the early returns on this year’s BBWAA vote are trickling in, and they don’t look good for Dustin Pedroia.
According to Ryan Thibodaux’s indispensable Hall of Fame ballot tracker, 12 ballots have been unveiled publicly as of this writing. So far Pedroia has yet to earn a single vote.
Even if that’s a minuscule sample size, it doesn’t bode well for the four-time All-Star.
Pedroia’s candidacy has always been a long shot. At his peak the former Red Sox great was among the most impactful second baseman of his generation, but injuries cut his career short, preventing him from compiling the career numbers that usually serve as Hall of Fame benchmarks.
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Pedroia will ultimately need to squeak out 5% of the vote to remain on the ballot for another year, giving voters more time to consider his case.
The early returns look much better for Ichiro Suzuki and C.C. Sabathia, who are both a perfect 12 for 12 on public ballots so far. Suzuki has always been considered a lock to cruise into Cooperstown, but Sabathia's case isn't quite as airtight, so his status as a first-ballot Hall of Famer was somewhat less certain. It's still early, but he's certainly trending in the right direction.
Billy Wagner, who fell just short of induction with 73.8% of the vote last year, is 11 for 12 (91.7%) and on pace to earn enshrinement in his 10th and final year of eligibility. Nobody else is currently trending above the 75% threshold.
This Tuesday MLB will hold its third annual Draft Lottery, and again the Red Sox have a small but non-zero chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick.
By virtue of finishing 81-81 and with the 13th-worst record in baseball, the Red Sox have a 1.22% chance of winning the top pick. The Rockies and Marlins are tied for the best odds at 22.45% each, followed by the Angels (17.96%), Nationals (10.2%) and Blue Jays (7.48%).
The top six picks in the draft are determined via the lottery, and the Red Sox have a 13.1% chance of landing inside the top six.
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Despite enduring one of the worst seasons in MLB history, the White Sox are not eligible for this year's lottery because they pay money into the league's revenue sharing program and received a lottery pick in 2024. The Athletics, who receive revenue sharing money and earned lottery picks each of the last two years, are also ineligible. As a result they can pick no earlier than No. 10 and 11, respectively.
Even with such small odds, there is recent precedent suggesting the Red Sox actually could earn the top pick. Last year the Cleveland Guardians won the No. 1 overall pick despite having 2% odds, enabling them to pick standout infield prospect Travis Bazzana. The prior year the Pirates won the top pick with 16.5% odds, allowing them to select future Rookie of the Year winner Paul Skenes.
The most likely outcome is the Red Sox wind up with the No. 13 pick, though they could also get bumped further down the board if any clubs behind them win the lottery and jump in front of them.
The Rule 5 Draft has been kind to the Red Sox in recent years. Prior to the 2021 season the Red Sox poached Garrett Whitlock from the New York Yankees, and he became an indispensable part of that year's playoff team. Last year the Red Sox traded for Justin Slaten minutes after he was selected by the Mets, and he went on to become one of the club's top relievers as well.
Can the Red Sox strike Rule 5 gold again?
For those who aren't familiar, the Rule 5 Draft exists as a mechanism to provide big league opportunities for deserving players who might be stuck in the minors with their current club. Any minor leaguer who is not on a 40-man roster and who has either four or five years of experience (depending on how old they were at signing) is eligible to be selected, and anyone taken as a Rule 5 pick must then spend the entire following season on the big league roster or be offered back to their original club.
Essentially, clubs that make Rule 5 selections are betting a roster spot that a given player is major league ready and only needs to be given a chance.
The Rule 5 Draft is a two-way street, and in addition to possibly making selections, the Red Sox could also potentially lose players to other organizations. Last year Boston lost two players in the draft's major league phase, including left-hander Shane Drohan to the White Sox and right-hander Ryan Fernandez to the Cardinals. Drohan was later returned to Boston while Fernandez stuck with St. Louis and posted a 3.51 ERA in 66.2 innings.
Both players were widely expected to be taken after they were left unprotected, but this year the Red Sox don't have as many candidates after taking a proactive approach to their numerous Rule 5 eligible prospects.
This past season the Red Sox traded Nick Yorke, Matthew Lugo, Niko Kavadas, Ryan Zeferjahn and Eddinson Paulino ahead of the trade deadline, called up Richard Fitts, Chase Shugart, Luis Guerrero and Zach Penrod in-season and added Hunter Dobbins and Jhostynxon Garcia to the 40-man roster prior to the Nov. 19 deadline. Most, if not all, of those players would have been highly coveted.
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One potential wild card left unprotected is right-hander Yordanny Monegro, the club's No. 25 prospect according to MLB Pipeline. The 22-year-old has never pitched above High-A and is realistically several years away from the majors, but he's immensely talented and boasts an outstanding curveball. It wouldn't be totally crazy to imagine a rebuilding team stashing him in their bullpen and tolerating some rough growing pains for a year, though the odds of him being picked are still pretty low.
Baseball America does not list any Red Sox prospects in its Rule 5 Preview, but one name to watch with local ties who was highlighted is Shane Smith, a former Governor's Academy standout who pitched at Wake Forest. The Danvers native was an undrafted free agent by the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021 but threw a career-high 94.1 innings in 2024, mostly at Double-A with a few innings of Triple-A sprinkled in. He has split time as a starter and reliever but would likely come out of the bullpen in the majors if selected.
The Rule 5 Draft will take place on Wednesday starting at 2 p.m.