Chaim Bloom ruffled some feathers around New England on Tuesday when he called the Red Sox “underdogs” after largely standing pat at the trade deadline. It wasn’t exactly a ringing vote of confidence in the club, which had put together one of the best records in baseball over the prior three weeks.
Bracing as it was to hear, Bloom wasn’t wrong.
Entering Saturday the Red Sox playoff odds stood at 22.1% according to FanGraphs, the highest among American League teams currently below the playoff cutline but significantly lower than their closest playoff competitor, the Toronto Blue Jays.
That doesn’t mean the Red Sox can’t make the playoffs, but it is a good indicator that the club has a lot of work to do.
So how exactly do the Red Sox stack up against the rest of the American League? Here’s a snapshot of each playoff contender, their odds, their remaining schedules and other factors that could play a role down the stretch. All playoff odds are according to FanGraphs entering Saturday.
Though Tampa Bay endured a terrible July and has fallen out of first place in the AL East, the Rays still have the highest playoff odds among all AL contenders.
Why? The Rays banked enough wins that they still have plenty of daylight between themselves and the playoff cutline. Coming into Saturday they stood at 67-45, good for the third-most wins in MLB, and were eight games up on the Mariners, who stood as the top non-playoff team in the AL. They also had a productive trade deadline, acquiring starter Aaron Civale to bolster their rotation, and they’ve now cleared the toughest part of their schedule, a July gauntlet that included series against Philadelphia, Atlanta, Texas, Baltimore, Miami and Houston.
The Rays do have a tough road ahead of them. Entering this weekend 36 of their last 50 games were against clubs with winning records. They’ll also finish the season with six of their last eight games against Toronto, with a two-game set against Boston sandwiched between the two Blue Jays series, so one way or another they’ll play a key role in the playoff race even if their own spot is likely secure.
Baltimore didn’t do as much to reinforce its roster at the trade deadline as it arguably should have, but the Orioles did pick up a useful starter in Jack Flaherty and have played so well they might not need any other help.
The Orioles went 17-9 in July despite playing exclusively teams above .500, and they came into the weekend owner of the second-best record in baseball (68-42). They’re now entering a lighter stretch before things pick up again in September, and overall Baltimore will play 29 of its last 50 games against winning clubs.
No matter how things shake out, Tampa Bay and Baltimore are both going to make the playoffs, and whichever doesn’t win the AL East has a great chance of taking the top Wild Card spot.
The trouble for the rest of the AL East after Tampa Bay and Baltimore is that Houston has reasserted itself as the perennial contender it’s been the last six years, all but guaranteeing at least one Wild Card spot will go to an AL West team.
Despite trailing Texas in the division for effectively the entire season, Houston is now the favorite to win the division thanks in part to aggressive trade deadline activity that saw the club shore up its rotation by re-acquiring future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, who played a key role in both of the Astros’ World Series titles.
Houston (63-48) did still come into the weekend trailing Texas by 1.5 games, but they were also 4.5 games clear of the Mariners. The Astros are currently in the midst of playing 20 straight games against winning clubs, and before the end of August they and the Red Sox will play each other seven times, but after that things open up considerably.
The key for the Astros is they play lowly Kansas City and Oakland a combined nine times in September, and they only have one series left against Texas. If they’re still in the AL West hunt and comfortably in possession of a Wild Card spot or better by month’s end, it’s difficult to imagine anyone catching them.
Houston’s soft September schedule is the main reason why Texas has worse odds, but the Rangers aren’t messing around either and went all-in at the trade deadline to ensure they have a chance to compete for its first World Series title.
Despite losing ace Jacob deGrom for the season and more recently Cy Young contender Nathan Eovaldi to a forearm strain, the Rangers reloaded by trading for future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery, a quality mid-rotation arm. The Rangers also added catcher Austin Hedges to fill in for injured catcher Jonah Heim, one of five All-Stars who make up Texas’ lineup.
Those additions should make a big difference after Texas went 25-26 over the months of June and July, and even after that swoon they still have the No. 2 run differential in all of baseball. The Rangers have a tough schedule with 41 of their last 52 games against winning clubs, but don’t count on this team fading down the stretch. They’ll be a Wild Card team at worst.
The Minnesota Twins have the ninth-best record in the AL out of 15 teams and are only three games over .500 at 57-54, and yet they’re a shoe-in to make the playoffs because they happen to play in one of the worst divisions in MLB history.
The AL Central is a mess, and as flawed as this Twins team is they should still cruise to a division title. Despite that, the Twins still stood pat at the trade deadline, perhaps an acknowledgement that winning the 2023 AL Central title isn’t much of an accomplishment if the inevitable result ends up being an AL Wild Card Round beatdown.
Realistically the five teams listed above are highly likely to make the playoffs, meaning everyone else from here on out is likely battling for the last spot. Right now the heavy favorites to emerge from that next tier is the Blue Jays.
Toronto has been in win-now mode for the better part of three seasons and they’ve acted with urgency this summer to maximize their chances in October. The club added shortstop Paul DeJong and closer Jordan Hicks at the deadline in response to a pair of key injuries, and those two also join a potent lineup and pitching staff that has kept the Blue Jays in the hunt despite some notable setbacks, the biggest being Alek Manoah’s severe regression after a Cy Young-caliber breakout last year.
The Blue Jays’ playoff hopes may ultimately come down to two crucial stretches. Between Aug. 28 and Sept. 10 Toronto plays 12 consecutive games against last-place teams, with series against Washington, Colorado, Oakland and Kansas City. Then, they’ll open a four-game set against Texas before wrapping up the season with five straight series against AL East rivals.
If Toronto rips through that soft spot they could conceivably lock down a playoff spot by mid-September, but if they don’t the Blue Jays could be playing with fire, and those two late series against Tampa Bay may loom large when all is said and done.
Now we know what the Red Sox are up against, so how can they close the gap and play their way into the field?
First, the Red Sox are about to get some huge reinforcements. Trevor Story is better than any position player traded at the deadline and could potentially have a massive impact on Boston’s lineup. Between him and newly acquired second baseman Luis Urías, the Red Sox will also have a completely revamped middle infield, solving one of the club’s biggest weaknesses during the first half.
Two, Chris Sale could potentially rejoin the Red Sox rotation in a matter of days, the Tanner Houck likely won’t be far behind him. That should enable the Red Sox to significantly cut back on the number of openers and bullpen games they run with, though it wouldn’t be a shock to see Nick Pivetta continue to pitch in that role from time to time to buy Brayan Bello, James Paxton and Sale an extra day of rest when needed.
We haven’t seen what the Red Sox are capable of at full strength, so even without splashy trade deadline acquisitions we can’t rule out the possibility that this club might be much better over the last two months. And they’re going to have to be, because they have a tough road ahead.
Boston will play 37 of its last 53 games against winning clubs, and while they’ll get 10 straight games against Kansas City, Detroit and Washington after Toronto leaves town this weekend, they’ll follow that with a critical stretch that includes seven games against Houston and a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers in late August. The Red Sox need to hold their own, but with so many games against playoff rivals they are also in full control of their destiny.
The New York Yankees are in effectively the same spot as the Red Sox and took a similar “stand pat” approach at the trade deadline, but it’s much harder to see a path forward for them.
The Yankees lineup has been well below league average all season, and while Aaron Judge recently returned after an extended stint on the injured list, he isn’t at 100%. The club also recently shut down Anthony Rizzo, who has apparently been playing with post-concussion symptoms since late May, and also placed starting pitcher Domingo Germán on the restricted list while he steps away to enter alcohol rehab.
All told, it’s been a rough stretch for the Yankees, and the way things are going it’s looking like the club’s stretch of six straight playoff appearances could be in serious jeopardy.
What started as one of the most highly anticipated seasons in Mariners history has wound up being a major disappointment, and while Seattle isn’t out of the hunt yet the club effectively threw in the towel after it sold at the trade deadline. The Mariners do have a fairly soft schedule down the stretch and could still make a push for the third Wild Card spot, but 10 straight games against Texas and Houston to finish the season is really tough.
You wouldn’t normally expect a team only two games out of its division to sell at the trade deadline, but credit to Cleveland — they’re realistic about their place and acted accordingly. This season has been a major disappointment, but the Guardians still have loads of young talent and are better off turning their gaze to the future.
The Guardians may still catch the Twins and win the AL Central, but this club isn’t going anywhere in 2023.
Whenever Bloom talks about building a core of young talent and not cutting corners by making irresponsible trades and free agent signings, it’s hard not to wonder if he’s taking a subtle dig at Arte Moreno and the Angels. For years now the Angels have employed the two best players of their generation — Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani — and yet the Angels have consistently been unable to surround them with enough talent to win.
Now with Ohtani nearing free agency, Moreno had a choice. Either trade Ohtani for a massive haul of prospects to rebuild the club or load up for one last try in hopes to convincing Ohtani to stay. Moreno chose the latter, mortgaging the future for what’s now a less than 10% chance of reaching the playoffs.
Maybe the Angels’ bet will pay off, and maybe the club actually will convince Ohtani to re-sign, but it’s not looking good. And if the Angels fail and Ohtani does wind up leaving, it could take years for the Angels to pull themselves out of the wreckage.