Over the past few years the Red Sox have battled the perception that they aren’t willing to spend big in free agency. Even though the club has maintained one of the higher payrolls in MLB, the Red Sox have faced intense criticism for not being bigger players at the top of the free agent market.
Things came to a head during this past December’s Winter Meetings when one big name after another came off the board, and the Red Sox seemingly were content to sit on the sidelines.
Ultimately the Red Sox wound up having a better offseason than they were given credit for at the time. Masataka Yoshida has proven himself a worthy investment and Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Justin Turner have all been valuable additions. Chaim Bloom had a few misses too, but for the most part the Red Sox have been competitive even without some of the splashy signings fans pined for.
In many instances, fans should be thankful those players slipped away.
For all the big-ticket, premium free agents the Red Sox seemingly missed on over the past two years, quite a few have failed to live up to expectations. Now many the same fans who celebrated those signings are grumbling over the drag they could have on their club’s payroll for years to come.
Exhibit A: Carlos Correa.
It wasn’t long ago Correa was regarded as a can’t miss, must have superstar. Even after failed physicals cost him a pair of decade-long, $300-plus million deals, he still came out looking good with a six-year, $200 million contract with the Minnesota Twins.
The Twins surely must have felt they got him at a bargain, but now even that deal is looking suspect.
Despite no issues related to his surgically repaired right ankle, Correa is having a terrible year by his standards. The two-time All-Star entered Saturday batting just .229 with 14 home runs, 53 RBI and a .703 OPS, not exactly the kind of production you expect from someone you’re paying more than $33 million per season.
We’re now far enough into the season where Correa’s lagging numbers can’t be dismissed as a fluke or a product of small sample size, but if it makes the Twins feel any better, he isn’t the only recent free agent to fall well short of expectations.
Fellow shortstop Trea Turner, who signed an 11-year, $300 million contract this past offseason with the Philadelphia Phillies, has been similarly underwhelming. Turner came into the weekend batting .247 with a .694 OPS and 88 OPS+, which translates to 12% worse than the MLB average, and as a result has been dropped towards the bottom of the lineup. Turner even recently took out a billboard to thank Phillies fans for bearing with him throughout his struggles.
Kyle Schwarber, who signed with the Phillies after joining the Red Sox midway through the 2021 season, hasn’t been any better. Though Schwarber led the National League with 46 home runs last season and has 30 this season, he’s also leading the majors in strikeouts for the second straight year and is batting .186 with a dismal -0.6 wins above replacement mark.
Essentially, if Schwarber isn’t going deep, he isn’t doing much of anything. He even had a 30-game stretch from late April to early June where he batted .110 with 11 hits. Eight of those were homers, one was a double and just two were singles.
As much as Xander Bogaerts could have helped the Red Sox this season while Trevor Story was out and the rest of the middle infield was a mess, he hasn’t been setting the world on fire in San Diego either. Bogaerts has cooled considerably since his hot April start and has now posted just a .688 OPS in 81 games since the start of May, nearly a half-season’s worth of action.
Jose Abreu, who opted to sign with Houston over Boston this past offseason, may have been the biggest bullet dodged. The 36-year-old former MVP has a -1.0 WAR and a .634 OPS since joining the Astros, who owe him nearly $20 million for each of the next two years.
The premium pitchers haven’t been immune to this trend either. Just ask Yankees fans what they think of Carlos Rodon, who was supposed to be one of the top pitchers on the free agent market but whose first year in New York has been a disaster. Rodon missed the first half of the season with a forearm strain, went 1-4 with a 7.33 ERA upon his return and is now back on the injured list with a left hamstring strain.
At least Jacob deGrom was actually good in the few starts he made for the Texas Rangers before blowing out his elbow. He posted a 2.67 ERA with 45 strikeouts in 30.1 innings before undergoing Tommy John surgery six starts into the five-year, $185 million deal he signed with Texas. He’ll now miss the rest of this season and probably most of next year as well.
Even Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Wacha, who both signed elsewhere after spending last season in Boston, don’t look like the slam dunks they were a couple of months ago.
The two former Red Sox won AL and NL Pitcher of the Month honors for May, respectively, and Eovaldi was an AL Cy Young Award candidate through the first half. But since then both have gotten hurt, with Wacha (right shoulder inflammation) last taking the mound for San Diego on July 1 and Eovaldi (right forearm tightness) for Texas on July 18.
Injury concerns were a major reason why neither pitcher returned to Boston, and while the Red Sox did not adequately replace them, the club’s concerns have at least proven well founded.
Sooner or later the Red Sox will have to start becoming bigger players in free agency. The club already rewarded Rafael Devers with the biggest contract in team history and has Story and Yoshida under contract for another four years. Between those two and the emerging young core of Brayan Bello, Triston Casas, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and soon guys like Marcelo Mayer and Ceddanne Rafaela, the Red Sox are nearing a point where a big splashy signing actually could elevate them into real championship contenders.
But as we’ve seen, big spending comes with big risk, and if the Red Sox commit to the wrong guy it could throw everything they’ve built off the rails.
One acquisition that has gone well for Philadelphia, however, is their recent trade for starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen. The former Detroit Tiger was outstanding in his debut, allowing two runs over eight innings in a win over Miami, and then his next time out he was close to as good as you can be, throwing a no-hitter in his first start at Citizens Bank Park.
Lorenzen shut down the Washington Nationals, allowing just four walks while striking out five in the 7-0 Philadelphia win on Wednesday. The 31-year-old threw a career-high 124 pitches in the win, and through his first two starts he’s posted a 1.06 ERA for the Phillies.
That’s a pretty good return considering the Phillies only gave up lower minors infield prospect Hao Yu Lee to get him. Philadelphia is now 8-3 in August and has opened up a comfortable 4.5-game lead over the National League’s playoff cutline.
Some clubs on the fringes of the playoff race decided to cut their losses and sell. Others stood pat, hoping to give themselves a chance without giving up any future value. But a few pushed their chips to the center of the table, and two weeks out from the trade deadline the Chicago Cubs’ decision to go all-in appears to be paying off.
The Cubs, who looked like sure sellers after falling seven games under .500 on July 17, have been one of the hottest teams in baseball since the All-Star break and convinced their front office to change course after ripping off an eight-game win streak just before the trade deadline. Instead of trading guys like Cody Bellinger, the Cubs wound up becoming buyers and added corner infielder Jeimer Candelario, the top position player on the market, in hopes to taking advantage of the weak NL Central.
Since then the Cubs went 7-3 to start August and entered Saturday tied with the fading Cincinnati Reds for the last NL Wild Card spot. Chicago has been one of the best teams in baseball for nearly a month, and with a soft upcoming schedule featuring series against the Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers and Pittsburgh Pirates, it’s not a stretch to imagine the Cubs playing their way into first place by the time current division leader Milwaukee visits Wrigley Field on Aug. 28.
Former Worcester Academy star Matt Shaw, at one point the consensus pick to go to the Red Sox in this past month’s MLB Draft, wound up being taken one pick before Boston at No. 13 and has since gotten off to a spectacular start.
The University of Maryland great made his professional debut in the Chicago Cubs’ organization on July 27 and played three games of rookie ball, going 4 for 8 with a home run, a double, two walks and three runs scored. He immediately earned a promotion to High-A South Bend and has shown no signs of slowing down, batting .367 with a home run, two triples, a double, seven RBI, two walks and six runs scored in his first eight games.
Red Sox first round pick Kyle Teel, who was taken one pick later at No. 14, has been similarly impactful. He also played three games of rookie ball, earned a call-up right to High-A and went 3 for 5 in each of his first two games with Greenville.