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Boston Herald
Boston Herald
10 Dec 2024
Mac Cerullo


NextImg:MLB Draft Lottery: Red Sox have outside shot at landing top pick

This story originally appeared as part of Sunday’s MLB notes. Read the full column here.

MLB notes: If Luis Tiant finally earns call to Cooperstown, it’ll be long overdue

Today MLB will hold its third annual Draft Lottery, and again the Red Sox have a small but non-zero chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick.

By virtue of finishing 81-81 and with the 13th-worst record in baseball, the Red Sox have a 1.22% chance of winning the top pick. The Rockies and Marlins are tied for the best odds at 22.45% each, followed by the Angels (17.96%), Nationals (10.2%) and Blue Jays (7.48%).

The top six picks in the draft are determined via the lottery, and the Red Sox have a 13.1% chance of landing inside the top six.

Despite enduring one of the worst seasons in MLB history, the White Sox are not eligible for this year's lottery because they pay money into the league's revenue sharing program and received a lottery pick in 2024. The Athletics, who receive revenue sharing money and earned lottery picks each of the last two years, are also ineligible. As a result they can pick no earlier than No. 10 and 11, respectively.

Even with such small odds, there is recent precedent suggesting the Red Sox actually could earn the top pick. Last year the Cleveland Guardians won the No. 1 overall pick despite having 2% odds, enabling them to pick standout infield prospect Travis Bazzana. The prior year the Pirates won the top pick with 16.5% odds, allowing them to select future Rookie of the Year winner Paul Skenes.

The most likely outcome is the Red Sox wind up with the No. 13 pick, though they could also get bumped further down the board if any clubs behind them win the lottery and jump in front of them.

The MLB Draft Lottery will begin at 5:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast live on MLB Network and streamed on MLB.com.