The writing is on the wall.
If the Biden administration is preparing evacuation plans for Americans living and working in Taiwan, then you know a Chinese Communist invasion is coming.
Those invasion plans are only being strengthened by the political disarray in the United States—once the leading democracy in the world—where President Biden is trying to jail former President Donald Trump, his leading opponent in 2024.
News of the rescue plan broke last Monday on the heels of still another provocation by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army against Taiwan and the U.S. while Biden continues to make nice with China.
Hopefully, when the time comes, the rescue operation will go better than Biden’s botched—and deadly—retreat from Afghanistan where hundreds of Americans and thousands of Afghan allies were left behind.
The latest provocation was the deployment of 10 Chinese fighter jets across the Taiwan Strait into Taiwanese air space. A week earlier the Chinese sent 37 military planes in and around Taiwan, while Chinese naval vessels continue to circle the island.
Before that a Chinese warship cut off a U.S. destroyer in the Taiwan Strait and buzzed an American reconnaissance aircraft flying in international air space.
China views Taiwan as a breakaway province of mainland China rather than an independent democracy. Taiwan is an economic powerhouse of 24 million people. Ever envious authoritarian Chinese President Xi Jinping has vowed to take Taiwan over by one means or another.
“We will never leave any room for any sort of Taiwan independence or separatist activities,” he has said.
The U.S. policy toward Taiwan is ambiguous. The U.S. does not officially recognize Taiwan but has strong economic relations with it.
It also does not support Taiwanese independence or any change in the status quo, unless it is through peaceful means. But the U.S. does have the right to sell military equipment to Taiwan, which it does.
While Biden has said on several occasions that the U.S would come to Taiwan’s defense should the Chinese attack, each time he has done so the White House has walked his comments back.
And with good reason. The U.S. has only 200 troops in Taiwan, mostly in an advisory capacity. And even when the number was recently increased from 30, the Chinese strenuously objected.
The U.S. has no official embassy in Taiwan but is represented by the American Institute in Taiwan, a non-government organization (NGO) that is financed and staffed by the U.S. State Department, complete with a U.S. Marine Corps unit guarding its headquarters.
The Marines at the embassy might put up a good fight, but it is doubtful they, and the 200 G.I.’s. would prove to be much of a deterrent in the event of an invasion.
There are 4,742 Americans living and working in Taiwan, mostly in the intelligence technology sector. It is they who would need to be evacuated.
The story of the evacuation plan, which first broke in The Messenger, an online news service, was big news in Taipei, the Taiwanese capitol, even as John Kirby, the spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council, played it down.
This is the same John Kirby who denied that the Communists Chinese were erecting an electronic eavesdropping facility in Cuba, which later turned out to be true.
It is understandable that the people in Taiwan are nervous and upset about the American evacuation plans, given Biden’s embarrassing failure that took place with his precipitous ordered retreat from Afghanistan. Thirteen American troops were needlessly killed during the chaos at the Kabul Airport.
So, the Americans living in Taiwan should be nervous as well, particularly if they are relying on Joe Biden to get them out should fighting take place.
The issue of evacuation planning first came up when the Taiwanese media reported on a text message sent to U.S. citizens in Taiwan by the American Institute in Taiwan.
It said that Taiwan was a region “prone” to natural disasters and that Americans should have a “go-bag” ready in case of an emergency.
A Chinese invasion would qualify as an emergency.
Peter Lucas is a veteran Massachusetts political reporter and columnist.
