The Herald is breaking down the top quarterbacks ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft running April 25-27.
The Patriots hold the third overall pick and, barring a trade down or an unforeseen selection, are widely expected to take a QB in the first round. After breaking down LSU senior and Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels on Monday and UNC junior North Carolina Drake Maye on Tuesday, Michigan junior JJ McCarthy, a rising prospect, is up next.
Viewed as a three-man race among quarterbacks atop draft boards throughout the 2023 college football season, a fourth player has entered the fray with two weeks to go before the 2024 NFL Draft.
Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy has been this year’s top “riser” among QBs ahead of the draft. As recently as the NFL Scouting Combine, McCarthy was viewed as a fringe first-round prospect. But now it would be highly surprising to see McCarthy last past the Vikings’ No. 11 overall pick in the first round. And he could go as high as No. 2 overall to the Commanders, league executivess told NFL Media’s Tom Pelissero at the NFL Annual Meeting.
There also have been rumors linking McCarthy and the Patriots.
Michigan’s offense wasn’t reliant on McCarthy’s passing abilities to win a national championship last season, instead leaning on a high-powered rushing attack, but the 21-year-old quarterback has a strong arm, can weave in an out of pressure while maintaining balanced footwork, is a proven playmaker on the run and is adept at avoiding turnovers.
The former five-star recruit, born in 2003, is also the youngest of the top quarterback prospects in this year’s class and won’t turn 22 until after the 2024 NFL regular season has concluded.
After viewing all of McCarthy’s throws and runs from the 2023 season, let’s dive deeper into his potential as a player with the help of scouts around the NFL, who gave their own takes on the young QB.
The 6-foot-3, 219-pound passer enrolled at Michigan in January 2021 after finishing his senior season at IMG Academy. He backed up Cade McNamara as a freshman before taking over the Wolverines’ starting role in 2022.
The La Grange Park, Ill., native led Michigan to a 13-1 record and Big 10 championship as a sophomore, losing to TCU in the first round of the College Football Playoff. He completed 64.6% of his passes for 2,719 yards with 22 touchdowns and five interceptions in his first season as a college starter, adding 67 carries for 402 yards with five touchdowns on the ground.
McCarthy then led Michigan to a perfect 15-0 record, culminating in a national championship win over Washington as a junior. He completed 72.3% of his passes for 2,991 yards with 22 touchdowns and four interceptions, adding 57 carries for 340 yards with three touchdowns on the ground before declaring for the draft.
When drafting McCarthy, a team has to bank on the unknown nearly as much as what they see on film. He has considerably fewer career passing attempts (713) compared to USC’s Caleb Williams (1,099), UNC’s Drake Maye (952), LSU’s Jayden Daniels (1,438), Oregon’s Bo Nix (1,936) and Washington’s Michael Penix (1,685). With that came less evidence that McCarthy can consistently threaten defenses downfield.
He didn’t run the 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine or his pro day, but his 6.82-second 3-cone drill time is on full display as he maneuvered the pocket, scrambled and picked up yards on designed runs. It was surprising to see him sacked, and his speed (the Detroit Free Press reported that McCarthy was timed at 4.48 seconds in the 40-yard dash during his time at Michigan) makes him a threat to bail and find daylight downfield.
His toughness shouldn’t be questioned. He regularly hung in while pressure was bearing down and still delivered strikes downfield despite incoming contact. Sometimes his decision-making with pressure bearing down leaves something to be desired, and he has to know when to give up on a play and throw it away rather than eating a sack. He kept his footwork in check, always ready to throw, as he moved around the pocket.
The 2023 first-team All-Big Ten selection maintains his accuracy on the move in impressive fashion. He can roll out to his left or right and still hit a receiver in stride downfield.
He’s also not afraid to carve up the middle of the field and targeted receivers at a higher rate in that area compared to other top quarterbacks.
McCarthy completed a high percentage of passes last season, but he still needs to work on his precise ball placement.
Ex-Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh’s lack of reliance on McCarthy is concerning, but it’s not as if the Wolverines weren’t winning with their brand of run-heavy football. Harbaugh, hired as the Chargers’ head coach this offseason, has called McCarthy the best quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft class.
Arm talent
Scouts and executives were unanimously positive about McCarthy’s arm strength. An AFC North scout said McCarthy has a “strong arm that benefits from his agile base and lower half.” An AFC East scout said McCarthy “can rip it” and also throw with touch. A second AFC East scout also saw McCarthy’s arm strength as a positive.
Accuracy
Scouts were more torn on McCarthy’s accuracy, despite his high completion percentage. An AFC West executive believed McCarthy was accurate on all three levels, and the AFC North scout said he has “plus accuracy in rhythm.” But the first AFC East scout saw McCarthy’s accuracy issues pop up when his footwork broke down. The AFC North scout thought he was “just average on the move despite pocket feel and athleticism.” The second AFC East scout also thought McCarthy’s accuracy was an overall weakness.
Pocket presence
McCarthy’s pocket presence also drew mixed reviews. He’s “poised with legit pocket feel to hitch, escape and extend,” according to the AFC North scout. The first AFC East scout saw that McCarthy had a tendency to get frantic in the pocket, however, and the second AFC East scout also looked at his poise as an overall negative.
Decision-making
The AFC West executive saw McCarthy as a “very good decision maker” and “efficient running his run-heavy offense.” “He never had to completely put the team on his back to win but is a proven winner,” he said.
The AFC North scout said McCarthy is “overall cautious at times,” however. “He seems to not completely trust his eyes and arms, especially after negative plays.”
Toughness
McCarthy’s toughness is viewed as a positive by the second AFC East scout, who also noted the QB’s smaller stature. McCarthy measured in at 6-foot-2 1/2 and 219 pounds at the NFL Scouting Combine, but he was listed at just 202 pounds in college. The AFC West executive sees McCarthy as a “very good leader.” McCarthy will likely need to maintain his bigger frame at the NFL level.
Playmaking
McCarthy’s playmaking ability and athleticism were unanimously praised by scouts polled. He’s a “really good athlete both to scramble and throw on the move,” according to the first AFC East scout, and “athletic and mobile enough with off-platform ability,” according to the AFC North scout. The AFC West exec noted that McCarthy is mobile and “can hurt you with his feet if not contained” and “effective in the play-action game.” His mobility to extend plays and playmaking ability were both viewed as positives by the second AFC East scout.
Passing vision
McCarthy’s anticipation is still a work in progress, however. He has “slightly below-average anticipation even with pro scheme experience,” according to the AFC North scout, and “doesn’t anticipate over the middle,” according to the first AFC East scout. The second AFC East scout also saw his anticipation as a negative.
We pulled accuracy percentage, average depth of target, big-time throw rate, turnover-worthy play rate and run grade from PFF and EPA per play (expected points added) from CollegeFootballData.com from the 16 top QBs of the 2024 NFL Draft class, then standardized and averaged them. McCarthy ranked third out of the top 16 QBs behind Daniels and Maye when combining those six metrics into one standardized average.
He ranked second in accuracy rate, 11th in average depth of target, eighth in big-time throw rate, eighth-lowest in turnover-worthy play rate, fifth in run grade and fourth in EPA/play.
Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. was fourth, Williams was sixth, and Oregon’s Bo Nix was eighth.
Daniels ranked eighth in PFF’s deep passing grade this season, going 25-of-46 for 706 yards with 10 touchdowns and one interception on targets of 20-plus yards. His 72.9 under-pressure passing grade ranked fifth out of 123 qualified FBS quarterbacks and below Nix. His pressure-to-sack rate of 16.8% was the seventh lowest among the top 16 QBs and better than Maye, Daniels and Williams.
His clean-pocket passing grade ranked 26th and below Williams, Daniels, Penix, Nix and Maye. McCarthy’s average 2.85-second time in the pocket did rank among the highest in college football. Of the 16 QBs pulled for our standardized study, Daniels ranked fourth-slowest only behind Williams and Daniels. McCarthy’s average time to throw was 2.64 seconds, which was tied for the fourth-slowest among those 16 quarterbacks. His 4.13-second time to sack was second-slowest, and his 5.26-second time to scramble was fourth-slowest.
Scouts like McCarthy’s arm strength, mobility, leadership, toughness and ability to throw on the move. But he doesn’t possess Williams or Daniels’ elite playmaking ability or Maye’s overall build and elite arm talent. NFL teams value intangibles, however, and McCarthy has enough tools to be considered moldable at the next level. His age is a major advantage over an older prospect like Daniels, but there’s a lot of projection involved if McCarthy truly winds up being a top-three pick in the draft.
There are certainly fans of McCarthy within Gillette Stadium, but the people we have spoken to have ranked him fourth among the top QBs. All it takes is for de facto GM Eliot Wolf, who has final say on roster decisions, to fall in love with McCarthy, however. Wolf is not tipping his hand about his thoughts on the quarterback prospects within the building this offseason.