The Academy Awards are upon us again, with the ceremony airing Sunday at 8.p.m. on ABC.
Of the 10 films nominated for best picture, “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which has nine nominations, is the best, most spellbinding, tragic and relevant film. It probably won’t win. “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which has four nominations, is the highest grossing film of the nominees and the third-highest-grossing film of all time. It has scant chance to win. “Top Gun: Maverick,” the smash hit that put Tom Cruise back in the driver’s – err – pilot’s seat, has six nominations (notably none for acting) is the second most highest-grossing film of the nominees. It might win in an upset. “The Banshees of Inisherin” (a whopping nine nominations), “Elvis’ (eight nominations), “The Fabelmans” (seven nominations”), “Tar” (six nominations), “Triangle of Sadness” (three nominations, none for acting) and “Women Talking” (two nominations, none for acting) are not going to win.
The awards juggernaut known as “Everything Everywhere All At Once” (a record 11 nominations, including actress, supporting actor and two supporting actress nods and the favorite of predictors) is going to win best picture. With its world-saving, metaverse-ical, if not nonsensical plot, EEAAO is a virtual Marvel film in ordinary-people guise. Half of those who see the film (myself included) do not “get it.” But those who do, become devotees. Plus, it has been sweeping up precursors.
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, aka the Daniels, are going to win best director for “Everything Everywhere All At Once.” If there is an upset, the winner will be Todd Field for “Tar,” a film that he also wrote and that boasts a nominated lead performance. “The Banshees of Inisherin” is beautifully directed by Martin McDonagh (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), but is too difficult to win in this category. “The Fabelmans” is too bland to make Steven Spielberg a winner in this category. Ruben Ostlund of “Triangle of Sadness” was a strange nomination in the year of Chinonye Chukwu of “Till” and Audrey Diwan of the chilling, remarkably topical French drama “Happening.”
Austin Butler of Baz Luhrmann’s terrifically entertaining “Elvis” has picked up several precursors and will win best actor. The resurrected Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) might upset. Colin Farrell of “The Banshees of Inisherin” will not. Paul Mescal of Aftersun” is a definite future winner. Bill Nighy of “Living” will take solace in his well-deserved, if also belated, first nomination.
In the best actress race, the unstoppable Cate Blanchett of the problematic “Tar” will not be stopped. Like Anthony Hopkins of “The Father,” she is just too great, although it will be close. Ana de Armas of the controversial and also marvelous “Blonde,” is another future winner. Englishwoman Andrea Riseborough, came out of nowhere (and a film that has made $31,500 at the box-office) to upset Danielle Deadwyler of “Till” and Viola Davis of the overrated “The Woman King.” Michelle Williams of “The Fabelmans” delivered a performance that was overly mannered. Multi-talented SAG-winner Michelle Yeoh of “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” who delivers a great physical as well as comic-dramatic performance, might upset Blanchett. But I don’t think so.
The best supporting actor race is a bygone conclusion. Ke Huy Quan of “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” who was the memorable child actor from “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom” (1984), will win. Brendan Gleeson, Barry Keoghan (both “The Banshees of Inisherin”), Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”) and Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans”) will leave empty-handed.
Angela Bassett will receive the best supporting actress award for her regal leadership in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” The award might be seen as a career achievement prize for the actress who was previously nominated for “What’s Love Got to Do with It” (1993) and has had a distinguished career. The other nominees are Hong Chau (“The Whale”), Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All At Once”) and Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All At Once”), Condon and Curtis are closing in. But I think Bassett will prevail.
“Guillermo del Toro’s “Pinocchio” will be the delightful and deserving winner for animated feature. While I was a big fan of nominees “The Sea Beast” and “Turning Red,” I was less enthusiastic about “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” and “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On.” How did Phil Tippett’s 30-years-in-the-making “Mad God” not get nominated in this category? But, again, who’s watching?