A puzzle with no more than a dozen or so pieces should be one of the easiest things in the world to assemble.
But what happens when some of the pieces are too similar? What if a piece looks like it fits nicely in one spot, but then it seems to fit better someplace else? Given several different potential fits, what is the “correct” order?
Then, rather than one person putting it all together, instead it’s the seven members of the MIAA Ice Hockey Committee who sit down this morning in Franklin and try to sort out this year’s Super Eight tournament picture.
Live chat: Super Eight selection meeting
To some, strength of schedule might be the biggest piece of the puzzle, while others might lean toward a better record. How do head-to-head results factor in? Records against other teams in the tournament? Recent games, as opposed to the season-long overview?
The “In the Slot committee” has been hard at work trying to put it all together to come up with the ideal picture. There are no simple answers, but here is one way it could fall into place. Our best prediction is that not everyone will agree with this . . . or the committee’s final result.
- MALDEN CATHOLIC (13-4-3) — Unlike in recent years, there doesn’t seem to be a consensus for the top seed, particularly in light of the Lancers’ loss to Central Catholic in Wednesday’s Cardinal Classic. But the defending Super Eight champs won the Catholic Conference and split with BC High, the most recent meeting being a solid 5-1 victory last Friday on the road.
- BC HIGH (14-2-4) — The Eagles are No. 1 in the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI), and their 8-2-2 record against other teams in consideration is the best of the bunch. BC High also won the prestigious Buddy Ferreira Classic this week. Still, it will be hard to overlook the fact the Eagles finished third in the Catholic Conference after that loss to MC last week.
- ARLINGTON (18-2-2) — After falling in a play-in game a year ago, the Spy Ponders won’t need to sweat it out this time around as they make their first appearance in the main field since 2003. They beat Hingham, split with Pope Francis and their only other loss was to BC High. Of the 10 spots on the board, this is the one we are predicting with the highest certainty.
- POPE FRANCIS (16-4-1) — The Cardinals spent much of the first half of the season at the top of the rankings, only to dip with three straight losses to start February — including BC High and Hingham. But the Western Mass. school is the perfect example of getting hot at the right time, including a win against Central Catholic to capture its Cardinal Classic.
- CENTRAL CATHOLIC (14-5-3) — The Raiders were swept by Pope Francis but hammered Hingham, 9-3, on Jan. 30, so this spot makes some sense. Despite a split with Andover, Central won the Dual County/Merrimack Valley 1 title.
- HINGHAM (16-4-2) — And this is where the puzzle starts to get confusing. Yes, the Harbormen lost a tough one to Central Catholic. But how do we ignore the solid 4-0 win against Pope Francis just five days later? Hingham also is 7-4-2 against the rest of the contenders, trailing only BC High for most wins. We could easily see the Harbormen sliding a spot or two higher (we would put them at 5), but let’s call this a hunch.
The wild cards
(Ranked according to winning percentage)
- WALPOLE (21-0-1) — We’ve been at this game for 17 years now, and never have we found a case remotely as debatable as what the Rebels will present today. On one hand, their 21 wins are the most by a Div. 1 team since Hingham in 2002. Only six other times in the Super Eight era has a team won at least 20, and none were left out — in fact, most got into the field quite comfortably. Walpole certainly won’t be able to enjoy that. Many question a strength-of-schedule that sits in the 40s. If they get in, it likely will be after a long, drawn-out 4-3 vote. But unbeaten is unbeaten, and in the end, that probably will be hard to overlook.
- MARSHFIELD (18-2-2) — The Rams are a bit like Walpole, only to a lesser degree. They don’t have any wins over other teams on the board, but the two losses were to Hingham and Arlington. They likely will be sweating it out too, but in the end, should have enough to earn their first Super Eight nod.
- AUSTIN PREP (16-2-3) — A week or so ago we would have had the Cougars easily penciled somewhere in the top six. But losses to Pope Francis and Hingham muddled that a bit. They likely will draw consideration for the No. 6 spot, but the guess here is they get just squeezed out.
- CATHOLIC MEMORIAL (14-3-2) — One thing we can guarantee is that the Knights will hear their name called today for the first time in three years. CM is another team that might draw a nomination for a top-six spot, but losing to Hingham (4-0) and Xaverian (6-1) in the last week or so dented an otherwise impressive resume.
On the outside
ST. JOHN’S PREP (11-7-2) — If we had to vote for any other team, it would be the Eagles, who clearly play one of the state’s toughest schedules and won their last six games. There will be plenty of support for their cause and they just might get in at someone’s expense (Walpole?). But the guess here is the Eagles will be the most disappointed people in the room when it’s over.
ALSO — St. Mary’s (13-7-2) might get some interest, particularly given Dream Teamer Dante Maribito missed five games midseason with an illness. But losses to BC High, Pope Francis and MC in the last two weeks plus a tie with Andover likely will dampen their hopes. . . . Andover (13-5-2) split with Central Catholic, but that is the best argument the Golden Warriors can make. The tie with St. Mary’s on Sunday also hurts. . . . Braintree (12-6-2) has been on the board all along but has no marquee wins.